After seismic shift in US, a new Congress but an old consensus

The shift in US Congressional control is a pivotal moment for Washington, but its impact on the India–US strategic partnership will likely be more subtle than disruptive. With President Donald Trump retaining executive control though over US foreign policy, India will need to guard against any further complication of the West Asia conflict.The relationship rests on bipartisan support and consensus built around Indo-Pacific cooperation amid Chinese assertiveness, along with people-to-people contacts and technology and defence ties. Electoral cycles have done little to deter this momentum built over the past 25 years.However, despite this core alignment, the strategic partnership also hit its lowest ebb in decades under the second Trump administration over issues like asymmetrical trade demands, India's reluctance to abandon its energy ties with Russia, US immigration policies and also Washington's Pakistan outreach leading effectively to the re-hyphenation of its approach to the region.To what extent a tighter Congressional scrutiny of Trump's actions – including on issues related to Iran and Ukraine – can constrain his foreign policy is unclear, as the legislative turnaround is unlikely to dent his broad executive authority over US diplomacy and military even in the face of a domestic pushback.Significantly, the ASEAN summit this month in Manila – where PM Narendra Modi will be present – might indicate how the midterm results could reshape Trump's approach to global affairs. Of immediate interest not just for India but also Japan and Australia will be the Quad leaders' summit which is scheduled for November 16 on the margins of ASEAN. Modi may have also have a bilateral meeting with Trump.It was India's turn to host the leaders' summit for the past 2 years but Trump's apparent reluctance to travel to New Delhi amid bilateral trade discord delayed the event, leading many to conclude that the president had downgraded Quad to pursue closer ties with Beijing.Preserving Quad for a free and open Indo-Pacific is a key foreign policy priority for India and Japan. The leaders' summit in Manila will be of particular significance as it will take place in the middle of the Philippines' continued maritime tensions with Beijing, and days before Trump's visit to China for the APEC leaders' meeting.Strategic ties in the form of Quad, defence cooperation and initiatives like TRUST (formerly iCET) on critical and emerging technology will continue to deepen, based on the bipartisan foundation. As it negotiates its own trade agreement with the US, India will watch out though for potential legislative hurdles over labour and environmental standards.A Democratic majority could also seek to curb the Trump administration's unilateral tariff actions, ensuring some reprieve for India. It could also offer a check against restrictive immigration legislation, providing relief potentially for high-skilled Indian professionals and H-1B visa holders. Democrats have traditionally been more vocal or even critical of India on human rights and other internal issues, but this has rarely been a deal-breaker.After the midterm outcomes, India will look to balance its engagement with the White House by cultivating ties with key Democratic committee chairs. According to Indian officials, the relationship based on similar values and strategic goals will continue to grow."American funding, research, and businesses pair perfectly with India's talent, large workforce, and ambition. Above all, the close connection between regular people, especially the active Indian-American community, keeps this partnership strong, reliable, and focused on the future," said a source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.You use AI every day. Now get your AI Quotient. Take the AIQ test.