Trump’s tariffs on Canada could cost him several red states

If you were a conspiracy theorist, you might think President Trump is trying his best to get Republican candidates defeated in the November midterm elections. That’s because the tariffs he recently imposed on Canadian imports , and Canada’s response by imposing tariffs on U.S. imports, hit several red states very hard, which is fueling voters’ anger.

Trump is apparently upset with the U.S.-Canada trade imbalance. Americans buy more imports from Canada ($454 billion in 2025) than Canadians buy from the U.S. ($426 billion). That’s a $27 billion trade deficit. But the United States has nearly nine times the population of Canada. Of course, Americans buy more.

Canada is America’s second biggest trading partner . Sales and jobs in both countries depend on a vibrant cross-border trading economy, which Trump’s tariffs could undermine.

A recent assessment by the Visual Capitalist highlights 23 states that get most of their imports from Canada. Among the states with closely watched elections are Maine, which gets 68.7 percent of it imports from Canada, Alaska (40.7 percent), Minnesota (33.5 percent), Iowa (26.6 percent), and Ohio (18.7 percent).

But trade is a two-way street. It’s not just the increased costs — up to 50 percent more — U.S. companies, small businesses (like farms) and consumers must pay for Canadian imports. There are also U.S.-made products and services that Canadians may decide not to buy from the United States because the of the tariffs Canada, in response, imposed on imports from the United States. The Visual Capitalist’s newly released map outlines the states hardest hit.

The biggest state exporters to Canada are Ohio (exporting $2.3 billion a year) and Pennsylvania ($1.8 billion). Are there important elections in those states that could make the difference in whether Republicans retain the House of Representatives and the Senate?

Wisconsin’s also on the list ($1.4 billion), as well as Michigan and Indiana (both at $1.3 billion). And even though Maine only exports $453 million to Canada, that’s a lot for a small state — and with one of the most important Senate races for Republicans in the country.

In fact, Canada is a huge trading partner all across the heartland, where Republican support tends to be strongest — or should I say “tended” to be strongest? Iowa sells $529 million to Canada, North Carolina $601 million, and Minnesota $594 million. And how about $908 million in very important Georgia.

Voters in the most affected states are taking notice, and that’s going to weigh on Republicans’ election chances.

National Public Radio has been holding focus groups around the country made up of swing voters who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but switched to Trump in 2024. These are the voters who put Trump over the finish line in 2024. Most of them are not happy. As NPR reporter Mara Liasson observes , “This is a consistent echo across all our focus groups — No. 1 issue, affordability, cost of living.” Trump’s tariffs negatively impact both, and where we find Trump’s worst polling numbers .

Just consider Maine, where Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins’ polling has consistently trailed her Democratic opponent by a few points. She has understandably criticized Trump’s tariff policies. Collins may outperform the polls and win in November — she did in her last election in 2020. But if she does, it will be in spite of Trump and his tariffs, not because of him.

In Iowa, there is an open Senate seat, as Republican Joni Ernst steps down. Iowa has been trending red for several years, but the Democratic Senate candidate, Josh Turek, began pulling ahead of Republican candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson in the last two weeks — about the time U.S.-Canadian trade talks collapsed. And the Democratic candidate for governor is well ahead of the Republican.

In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed by the Republican governor last year to replace Vice President JD Vance, is running 5 points behind his Democratic challenger, former Sen. Sherrod Brown.

And how about that all-important open Senate seat in Michigan, one of the states most closely connected with Canada. The latest poll at RealClearPolling has progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers by 3 points.

All of these Senate elections, and many more, such as North Carolina and Alaska, are winnable for Republicans — or at least they were. But Trump’s tariff policies are dragging them down. Republican candidates either must defend Trump’s tariffs on Canada or criticize them. If candidates defend them, voters complain; if they criticize them, Trump complains — loudly.

The most puzzling part is that if Trump were determined to pick a trade fight with Canada, he could have easily waited until after November. He chose to do it weeks away from a critical election, which makes you wonder if the conspiracy theorists are right.

Merrill Matthews is the Texas state chair of Our Republican Legacy.