Skirting Pak

It’s been over 17 months since Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian airlines, and costs have piled up. The first 12 months cost Air India alone some 4,000cr. While longer flight durations, extra fuel burn, and staff expenses are a headache, loss of market share to foreign airlines – who aren’t banned over Pakistan – is also a concern now. DGCA’s data for April-June this year shows total passenger volumes to and from India are down 9.1% y-o-y, but foreign airlines’ market share has risen from 53.8% to 62.7%. This can’t go on, and considering how Pakistan has repeatedly shut its airspace to India’s carriers over the years, waiting for it to back off isn’t an option. Instead, viable alternative routes must be found, and Air India, IndiGo, and GOI are already working on it.As TOI reported Wednesday, India is trying to work out a Pakistan bypass via China for its airlines. The proposed route lies over Hotan in northwestern China’s Xinjiang region. While this still involves a detour, it’s not as long as circling Pakistan to get to Europe or North America from airports in Delhi, Amritsar, and Lucknow. And for Central Asian destinations like Tashkent and Almaty, the Hotan route could be as good as flying over Pakistan. Last year, an Indian carrier had suspended flights to these two cities briefly because flight durations had doubled.The other option, as the aviation minister has suggested, is to fly more westward routes out of southern airports that are not affected by the Pakistani airspace closure. With recent improvements in India-China ties – EAM Jaishankar spoke about it in New York on Monday – the Hotan route is possible, and as the aviation minister has said, “Diplomatic level talks are underway.”At a time international air travel growth is averaging 5% annually, Indian carriers can’t be losing market share. But the circumstances are beyond their control. Before the airspace closure, about 20% of their international flights crossed Pakistan. Overnight, flights to the same destinations became 47 minutes longer, on average. And those to San Francisco and Vancouver, for example, became up to four hours longer. This year, Iran war has pushed up jet fuel costs, so Indian carriers are not only flying longer routes, but also paying more per mile. So, foreign airlines – overflying Pakistan as usual – have a huge cost advantage. An alternative route would be a win for Indian business and diplomacy.Disclaimer: Views expressed above are the author's own.