Buy now or wait and hope? Families face gamble on heating oil

As the summer draws to a close, families who rely on fuel oil to heat their homes are facing a dilemma.

The price has almost doubled over the past year, following the outbreak of conflict between the US and Iran.

It has left people wondering whether to buy now for the winter, or hold off in the hope that prices will fall – with the risk that they could rise again.

John Craggs, 73, from Wigtoft, near Boston, Lincolnshire, needs to fill his tank ahead of winter.

"Over the next few weeks I'll be monitoring the price to see if it goes down a little bit and then order the oil," he says.

But whatever they decide, he and his wife Libby, 80, are planning to limit their heating this winter because of the cost.

"We've both had health problems over the last few years and we should be keeping warm but its just too expensive," John Craggs adds.

"We will only have the heating on up to about 17 degrees in three of the rooms in the house, between about 3pm and 8pm, just to keep the cost down to be able to afford it."

About 1.5 million UK households use heating oil, typically in rural areas. This includes more than 40% of homes in some parts of Lincolnshire, including Wainfleet All Saints, Wragby, Roughton and Ludford, according to Census data.

Unlike gas and electricity customers, they are not covered by the energy price cap, leaving them more exposed to sudden increases. They also have to pay a lump sum in advance for their fuel, with domestic tanks typically holding between 1,000 and 2,000 litres.

On Wednesday, the average price was 97.05p per litre, according to the comparison website boilerjuice.com , which measures the cost for purchases of 1,000 litres.

That figure is up by 85% since 9 September 2025, when it stood at 52.8p, and while it has dropped significantly from a high of 134p in March, prices have been climbing again in recent weeks after renewed fighting between the US and Iran .

It means a household wanting to fill a 1,000-litre tank could be facing a bill of more than £970.

In March, the government announced a support package worth £53m for low-income families who use heating oil after prices surged due to the conflict in the Middle East.

The funding is distributed by local authorities, which set their own criteria for eligibility.

John Craggs says he inquired about help, but found he did not qualify.

The charity National Energy Action wants to see the price cap that covers gas and electricity extended to include all forms of energy, including heating oil.

It is also calling on the government to provide more help to households.

Matt Copeland, the group's interim director of policy, said: "I don't think the level of support really anticipated the length of time these high prices would go on for. It's really important that the government does look at that again in the budget and allocates more funding to help people to afford their heating.

"The government should also look at widening the criteria so the low-income households outside of the benefit system who are really struggling to afford their energy bills can access the support that they need."

A spokesperson for the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero said: "Energy is an everyday essential and needs to be affordable for everyone, which is why we have cut VAT on electricity bills to give families breathing space.

"This follows taking £150 in costs off bills earlier this year, and we will keep looking at what more we can do to protect households."

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