Hurricane season is broken. Two oceans are historically out of whack

The 2026 hurricane season has been remarkable, from the potentially record-breaking calm in the Atlantic Ocean to the hyperactive eastern and central Pacific Ocean.

Only seven tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic, while 18 tropical storms and hurricanes have formed in the Pacific. In a normal year, the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific hurricane basins see similar activity, with 14 to 15 named storms, including seven to eight hurricanes by the time the season ends on Nov. 30. This year, the Atlantic hasn't yet produced a single hurricane, while the eastern Pacific has already produced eight.

What's interesting about this season is that a few of the storms that have occurred in the two basins originated in Africa and were influenced by the same powerful climate phenomenon, El Niño . But the results have been very different, with fierce hurricanes in the Pacific and unremarkable tropical storms in the Atlantic.

Meteorologists and climate scientists have closely watched the progression of these tropical waves and storms from their origins to their final destination using a fleet of satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . More than 60 years after satellites began helping observe hurricanes, they are still learning more about how and where tropical waves begin and how they develop and move. They watch as waves form in the Ethiopian mountains, over the Sahara or off the African coast, and then track them across the Atlantic and sometimes well into the Pacific.

This summer, there hasn't been a lot to see in the Atlantic. Tropical waves that do appear are being disrupted by shearing winds related to the El Niño. When Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed in the Atlantic on Sept. 25, it was only the season's seventh named storm, and it formed three weeks later than typical for the storm named with the letter "G" each season.

Don't look for Gonzalo to become a hurricane, either. It's expected to be yet another example of how hostile the Atlantic Ocean has been to tropical cyclones this year. One other storm also was active in the Atlantic on Sept. 25. Tropical Storm Fay was in the open ocean, while Gonzalo was moving through the Cape Verde Islands.

Meanwhile, the central and eastern Pacific has seen 18 named storms and could see two more by early October, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Conditions in both basins are at least partially linked to the "super El Niño," said Stacy Stewart, a former hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, now retired and teaching meteorology courses at Embry Riddle-Aeronautical University.

However, while the relative calm in the Atlantic can be primarily attributed to El Niño, it's not the only thing keeping hurricane activity tamped down, Stewart told USA TODAY. A drought in Ethiopia has also contributed to the quiet Atlantic season, as have dry air and Saharan dust.

2026 hurricane season reaches peak period. See activity so far.

Three hurricanes can be seen across the Pacific Ocean in this satellite image: Nolo, Odalys and Polo. They are among 18 named storms in the central and eastern Pacific this year.

Residents across the Atlantic's hurricane basin may not be aware that many tropical waves originate over the Ethiopian Highlands, Stewart said.

The waves are among dozens that develop and move off Africa into the Atlantic Ocean each year, Kelly Núñez Ocasio, an assistant professor in the department of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, told USA TODAY.

Most of the waves that move off the coast of western Africa never become tropical storms or hurricanes. But for the storms that do develop, waves that originate over the Ethiopian Highlands are the ones more likely to become hurricanes, Núñez Ocasio said.

That's in part because the Ethiopian mountains help form big storm clusters.

Some of the waves that form in Africa continue moving all the way across the extreme northern end of South America and emerge into the eastern North Pacific, where they can trigger the development of tropical cyclones there and in the Central Pacific, Stewart wrote in an email.

Both Fausto and Genevieve, two of the Pacific hurricanes this summer , developed from areas of disturbed weather that rolled off the hot, dry African continent near the island nation of Cape Verde, according to NOAA. The waves traveled westward, crossed Central America and eventually found favorable conditions over the eastern Pacific, where they strengthened into hurricanes.

The drought in Ethiopia meant a lack of the kind of thunderstorm activity needed to produce the big storm clusters and tropical waves that are "strong enough to survive the trek across the African Sahel region and resist shear conditions" over the Atlantic, Stewart said. "June and July 2026 brought some of the driest conditions on record, with rainfall deficits reaching 40% to 70% in northern, eastern, and central Ethiopia."

How quiet has this season been in the Atlantic?

"The last time we went this long without an Atlantic hurricane was in 1914," said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist with the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. "Of course, who knows what we really had for activity in 1914?"

The accumulated cyclone energy so far this season in the Atlantic is around nine, compared to a typical total by 88 in late September, according to Colorado State's running tally. That's the lowest since 1925, when storms were likely missed or underestimated, given the lack of aircraft reconnaissance and satellites, Klotzbach said.

"I really think the big story this year has been record high levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic," Klotzbach said. "The constant shredding of any system trying to develop has been a common theme so far this year, and as Yogi Berra used to say, 'it's getting late early.' While we certainly can't rule out a late-season hurricane or two, this season is certainly shaping up to be one of (if not the) quietest seasons since 1950 (when reasonably reliable records began)."

The Pacific Ocean, on the other hand, has had an uncharacteristically busy season. In contrast to the Atlantic, the eastern Pacific season already has an accumulated cyclone energy total of 235, compared to the 108 more typical for this time of year. The El Niño has produced very warm water and low wind shear, the kind of conditions that allowed Hurricane Polo to rapidly intensify this week and hit sustained wind speeds of 180 mph.

That's also one reason why the Hawaiian Islands are having yet another encounter with the impacts of a passing hurricane or tropical storm, as Hurricane Nolo moves near the state on the last weekend in September. The Central Pacific has seen seven storms and hurricanes this season. Only seven other seasons since 1970 have had that much activity or more.

While no known hurricane has been designated in the Atlantic, some meteorologists suspect Tropical Storm Fay may have briefly hit hurricane strength on Sunday, Sept. 20. It wasn't visited by hurricane hunter reconnaissance flights, so forecasters didn't have an abundance of information.

The center was relying on satellite observations and estimates to make forecasts. Fay's peak winds in the hurricane center's advisories topped out at 70 mph, just below hurricane strength.

Could it have been a hurricane, however briefly? Only time will tell. Dan Brown, the hurricane center's operations division chief, told USA TODAY that the storm would get a thorough review during the preparation of the center's post-storm report in the coming weeks.

The center conducts a post-analysis of every tropical cyclone, and those analyses can result in changes to intensity and storm status. For example, Hurricane Michael in 2018 was upgraded from a Category 4 to a Category 5 after an analysis of its peak wind speeds. Brown said revisions can raise or lower intensities and adjust the time a system achieved tropical cyclone status or crossed a threshold from one classification or category to another.

Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com .