Marshall faces final debate in fight for political life

Marshall, Hamilton meeting in final debate

Trump unveils fraud whistleblower program

Sen. Roger Marshall (Kan.) faces his second and final debate against Democrat Adam Hamilton as the first-term Republican fights for his political life in a razor-tight race.

The race has the potential to be biggest surprise of the entire midterm cycle, in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s. Polling has shown the race to be essentially dead even, as Hamilton leads in the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average by 0.4 points.

Tonight’s debate, hosted by Nexstar Media Group affiliate WDAF, will air at 7 p.m. CDT and run for one hour. Nexstar also owns The Hill.

Marshall started out the race as the heavy favorite , with DDHQ giving him as high as a 90 percent chance of winning this summer, but that now sits at just 65 percent, making him one of the most vulnerable Senate Republican incumbents this cycle.

Democrats have found some recent success in the state’s gubernatorial races behind popular moderate Gov. Laura Kelly (D). But a Democrat hasn’t won another statewide office in Kansas in decades, and Republicans have mostly dominated the U.S. House delegation for more than a century.

Hamilton, a prominent pastor who has leaned into his Kansas roots, is trying to change their fortunes.

He’s sought to tie Marshall to President Trump as the president’s approval rating has dipped. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey conducted last month found Trump’s approval rating in the state stood at 40 percent, while 53 percent of respondents said they disapproved of his job performance.

Hamilton has torn into Marshall over the Iran war and his refusal to support war powers resolutions in the Senate to limit Trump’s authority. He’s also seized on a New York Times report that Marshall had sued more than 700 patients for unpaid medical bills, including 81 who were arrested, during his time working as an obstetrician-gynecologist.

A spokesperson for Marshall told the Times that he spent decades caring for patients regardless of their ability to pay and that judges issue arrest warrants for missed court dates, not doctors.

But that hasn’t stopped Hamilton from seizing on the report, releasing an ad featuring one woman who was arrested.

Viewers can expect more of these attacks from Hamilton tonight.

There have been several internal and external signs that Republicans have reason for concern.

Election handicappers Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both shifted their ratings of the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up” this month.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC that works to elect Republicans to the Senate, is investing $14 million to boost Marshall after having pulled out of North Carolina, a seat that Democrats seem likely to flip.

Trump made a stop in Kansas to campaign for Marshall on Monday, announcing an $8 billion program to provide relief to farmers dealing with high diesel costs. He credited Marshall with pushing for the program and went after Hamilton, accusing him of “pretending to be a moderate.”

Hamilton has said he would be independent-minded and willing to break with his own party if elected.

Marshall has tried to label Hamilton as “woke,” pointing to sermons he’s given on issues like gender and sexuality and climate change.

But even Marshall has sought to distance himself from Trump on a few issues, pushing back last month when the president floated banning sales of the Canadian private jet maker Bombardier in the U.S. The company has a large workforce in Kansas. He also called on U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to work more closely with local police departments during a sudden sweep the agency conducted in the state.

How closely Marshall hugs Trump’s positions or shows willingness to break with him will be a key aspect to watch on the debate stage.

“I took it as a statement that the Republican Party felt they needed to send the most powerful man in the country to try to save Roger Marshall,” Hamilton said on CNN in response to Trump’s visit. “And I think it’s only going to hurt him.”

▪ The Hill : Marshall, Hamilton set to take debate stage in tight race.

▪ The Hill : Cook Political Report shifts three Senate races.

▪ The Hill : Trump says Pentagon will invest $1.5 billion into North Carolina chip production.

Russia has released Stephen Hubbard , a retired American teacher, from custody four years after he was taken in 2022 as Russia swept through Ukrainian territory at the outset of its full-scale invasion, special envoy Steve Witkoff announced during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The U.S. had considered Hubbard to be wrongfully detained.

Elon Musk ordered the slowdown of Starshield , the military version of Starlink, hampering Ukraine’s defenses in the war against Russia, The Wall Street Journal reported. Musk initially said only Trump or the military could order the slowdown, noting the SpaceX software is owned by the U.S. government.

Democratic Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) and Robert Garcia (Calif.) are the latest public figures to receive suspicious packages at their offices ahead of the midterms. Law enforcement sources told ABC News that more than 100 letters with white powder are apparently circulating in the U.S. mail system.

WHISTLEBLOWERS WELCOME: Trump and Vice President Vance announced a $25 million Fraud Whistleblower Incentive Program that would give monetary rewards to people who provide tips to the federal government that lead to a successful conviction.

“If anybody turns anybody in… you get a 1 percent commission, and I think that will be amazing, because the kind of money that’s been stolen is trillions from this country,” Trump said in the Oval Office.

Trump said he will act as the sole arbiter of who receives payouts, and if there are multiple claims to the same reward, Trump said he would intervene to “expedite” the process. Anyone can submit a tip through fraud.gov, Trump said.

Conservative YouTuber Nick Shirley — who posted videos documenting his search for fraudulent childcare programs in Minnesota last year — joined the president and vice president in the Oval Office yesterday. He will apparently become the first person to receive a reward through the program, with Fox News reporting he is set to receive $10,000.

The program is meant to build on Vance’s work as chair of the Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, which Trump created in March with the goal of looking into and reducing fraud in federal government programs.

▪ NPR : Fraud, Trump policies drive friction in Minnesota Senate debate.

UKRAINE TALKS : U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday amid fraying relations between the two countries as Trump appears to soften toward Russia in the weeks leading up to the election.

The talks took place in Oslo, Norway, and included leaders from both Norway and Finland. Kushner attended the meeting virtually.

A White House official told NewsNation that the meeting’s objective was to “continue aligning on a comprehensive proposal that can form the basis for renewed negotiations with Russia.” They said Witkoff would plan to next travel to Russia to meet with Putin and present ideas developed with Ukrainian and European partners.

▪ The Hill : Former NATO chief says ‘no balance’ to Trump choice ‘to give in to Russia.’

▪ The Hill : Pete Hegseth says U.S. approach to Ukraine unchanged.

FBI PROBE: The FBI investigated whether two of the biggest names in South Carolina — the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) and Rep. James Clyburn (D) — were involved in a bribery scheme connected to Hawaiian naval defense contractor Navatek, according to a report published by ProPublica .

The report says Navatek CEO Martin Kao told the FBI that Graham agreed to grant a $10 million government contract to the company in South Carolina, allegedly in exchange for a pledge of $100,000 to Graham’s reelection campaign.

The contractor made similar deals with Clyburn and Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) after approaching their offices in 2019, according to the report.

ProPublica previously reported that Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) had been investigated by the FBI for allegedly steering funding toward Navatek after Kao made illegal donations to her campaign. Collins has strongly denied the allegations and denounced Kao as a “convicted liar.”

The investigation into lawmakers on both sides of the aisle effectively ended when the team looking into it was gutted once Trump came back into office.

▪ KGO : FBI agent details alleged corruption of former Oakland mayor at trial.

MIDTERM SPENDING : Money is pouring into the midterm races, with less than two weeks to go before Election Day.

Trump announced on Truth Social yesterday that he will be spending a total of more than $400 million on the midterms, including the more than $300 million that’s “already been spent on Advertising, Direct and Indirect Voter Contact, Rallies, Rally Arenas, Telerallies, Get Out the Vote Programs, Election Integrity, and more.”

The Republican National Committee is also spending more than $50 million on House and Senate races in the final two weeks before Election Day, The New York Times reported.

And former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D) announced plans to spend $80 million to boost Democrats in competitive midterm races throughout the country.

▪ The Hill : Democratic super PAC to launch Senate ad campaign in Mississippi.

▪ The Hill : Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves 28 House races toward Democrats.

The president will participate in a roundtable at 2:30 p.m. He will travel to Clemson, S.C., to deliver remarks at 7 p.m. and then return to Washington.

DEFENDER-IN-CHIEF : The vice president’s role as Trump’s top defender could create a challenge for him as he considers a 2028 presidential bid.

Vance gained attention Monday after he brushed off the idea that Trump is using the White House for personal enrichment as “laughable.” He also said at a CBS town hall over the weekend that he doesn’t see any evidence of Trump enriching himself in office.

The Hill’s Mallory Wilson reports that puts Vance out of step with most voters. A Fox News poll found 6 in 10 respondents said they were extremely concerned about government corruption, while two-thirds said in a Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll that Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself.

“What else are you supposed to say?” one GOP strategist told The Hill of Vance’s remarks. “Whether you do or you don’t, you’re still never going to say yes.”

One national political consultant said the instance ties into a larger issue about Vance’s inability to separate himself from the president.

“[Former Vice President] Kamala Harris lost for a variety of reasons, but one of them was when she was on ‘The View’ when she was unable to offer any critique of the Biden administration. In what world is JD Vance allowed to say anything critical of President Trump?” the political consultant said.

Trump’s net worth has increased substantially since he won back the presidency in 2024, as his family has made money from cryptocurrency and his own stock trades. Democrats have vowed to investigate Trump and members of his administration if they win back control of Congress.

▪ The Hill Insider : Insider Democrats’ oversight playbook.

▪ The Hill : Trump deflects on possible Vance endorsement.

UGLY ATTACKS: Ohio Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton is fighting back against an ad from her opponent Vivek Ramaswamy that features her estranged mother accusing her of being a “liar” and telling Ohioans not to vote for her in November.

The ad gained visibility online Monday night after first appearing in a post by an Ohio political blogger but didn’t make clear who was behind it.

Acton was quick to accuse her opponent of being behind the ad, pointing to similar accusations he faced of running personal attacks when he ran for president. Ramaswamy later acknowledged that his campaign produced the ad , which a spokesperson said will air both online and on TV.

“This is a lifelong pattern with my opponent,” Acton told Spectrum News in an interview.

Acton’s mother, Donna Arthur , suggested in the ad that the Democrat has misrepresented her opponent and pushed back on Acton’s account of living in a tent with her family at one point during her childhood. Acton’s brother, Philip Stearns , has backed up his sister’s account.

Acton has not seen her mother since she was 12 years old, when she and Stearns were removed from their mother’s custody after their stepfather, Arthur’s husband, was indicted for raping Acton as a child, according to a statement from her campaign. Arthur reportedly defended her husband in court.

Acton’s campaign also released its own ad later Tuesday featuring Stearns talking about their childhood abuse and accusing Ramaswamy of being behind the ad featuring their mother.

“She was 11 and 12 years old, and to think that that’s somehow a talking point. Shame on Vivek. It’s the contempt he has for Amy. It’s the contempt he has for Ohio. He’s not fit to lead,” Stearns said in the ad .

▪ The Hill : Ohio race takes ugly turn with viral video featuring Acton’s mother.

▪ The Hill : Meghan McCain decries ‘dastardly’ political ad with Acton’s mother.

Republicans raised $1.2 billion to reach young voters. Democrats must respond , Celinda Lake and Eve Levenson write in The Hill.

Why everyone wants to meet with Kim Jong Un , Ruth Pollard writes in Bloomberg.

And finally … Prince Harry said a reconciliation with his family is the “most important thing” to him following his return to the United Kingdom.

The Duke of Sussex told GQ in an interview published Tuesday that he grieves the current relationship he has with his father, King Charles III , and brother, Prince William . He has reportedly been estranged from much of his family for years, but he and his wife, Meghan , the Duchess of Sussex, returned to the U.K. in August after spending six years in California.

“With everything else that’s going on in the world, the most important thing is to reconcile,” he said.

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