Vance, Harris top early 2028 White House race polling

Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are at the top of early polling for the GOP presidential nod in 2028, while former Vice President Kamala Harris leads a wide-open Democratic field.

A New York Times/Siena University survey released last week found Vance with 33 percent support from Republican primary voters, 10 points ahead of Rubio.

President Trump has repeatedly floated both men as potential contenders, though Vance, long seen as the heir apparent, has said he’s never spoken to the president about running, and Rubio has said he’s not planning to mount a bid next cycle.

Trump, who in the past has floated running for an unconstitutional third term, snagged 8 percent, signaling his lasting grip on the GOP as he heads into the last half of his second term.

Trump was followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who challenged Trump in 2024, at 3 percent. Another 6 percent of Republican respondents named someone else, and 26 percent said they didn’t know who to back.

Across the aisle, Harris snagged 12 percent support from Democratic primary voters, ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) with 9 percent and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 7 percent.

Progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) also pulled in single-digit support, with 6 percent, 4 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

But another 15 percent in the party named other candidates — and a whopping 45 percent said they didn’t know who they’d pick for the next White House race.

Roughly half of Democratic respondents said they want to see their party move toward the center as 2028 approaches, compared with 27 percent who said it should shift left and 21 percent who said it should stay as is. A staggering 72 percent of the pivotal independent bloc, though, also said the Democrats should move toward the center.

More than 80 percent of independents also said they want Republicans to move away from Trump, though just a third of Republicans said the same.

The survey was conducted Oct. 12-19 among 3,494 voters. The margin of sampling error was 1.9 percentage points among the likely electorate and registered voters.