Trump funnels millions from massive war chest into key House, Senate races: Here’s where

President Trump’s super PAC and affiliates have injected tens of millions of dollars into pivotal Senate and House races just one month from Election Day as the GOP looks to keep control of Congress.

Trump’s MAGA Inc. and several affiliated groups — No Going Back PAC Inc. and Safety & Affordability PAC Inc. — have reported some of their biggest spending so far in the toss-up Ohio, Texas and Michigan Senate races. They have also spent heavily in a slew of competitive House races in states like Florida, New York, Michigan and Maine.

Political observers and candidates alike are keeping a close eye on Trump’s immense war chest and where he will spend next. As of late August, MAGA Inc. had $415 million on hand, and the president has pledged to spend between $400 million and $500 million in the midterms.

One Republican operative involved in the midterms noted that if things go south for the GOP in the fall, it’ll be primarily because voters say costs of living are still too high, not a lack of money spent.

Here’s a look at where Trump’s super PAC and affiliated groups are spending:

The president’s main super PAC has funneled most of its resources into the bitter Texas Senate race between state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and state Rep. James Talarico (D). It has reported spending $25 million so far on the toss up race, according to the latest campaign finance filing available Saturday .

A polling average of Texas Senate surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) shows Talarico edging Paxton out by more than 2 percentage points.

In late August, Trump’s super PAC also reported spending just more than $825,000 to support Sen. Darline Graham (R) in the South Carolina Senate GOP primary against Rep. Ralph Norman (R). Graham ultimately won the primary to face Democrat Annie Andrews for the full six-year term.

These figures don’t include future ad reservations.

Republicans have worried about who will foot the bill in Texas in particular. Paxton has been mired in controversy after surviving an impeachment trial, and the Senate Republican campaign arm opposed his candidacy in the nasty GOP primary against Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

However, Texas PAC, which is affiliated with Senate GOP leadership, has already reported spending more than $130 million to boost the Texas attorney general and oppose Talarico, per its latest filing .

A source familiar with the Trump political operation’s spending suggested the difference in spending between Trump and Senate Republicans’ groups was “not a discrepancy,” adding “we’ve communicated to partners in the ecosystem what we were going to do.”

“Everything we’ve done has been in partnership” with Congressional Leadership Fund and the Senate Leadership Fund, the source familiar said, “looking for gaps or where we need to strategically make a dent” during certain time periods or certain media markets.

The Trump-affiliated super PAC is spending in a swath of competitive Senate and House races.

So far, it’s spent close to $23 million in the Ohio Senate race between Sen. Jon Husted (R) and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), according to a Wednesday filing. Another $17.5 million has been poured into the Michigan Senate race between former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

A separate nearly $10 million has been spent to boost former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley and attack former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in North Carolina’s Senate contest.

Another $7.4 million has been spent in the New Hampshire Senate race between Rep. Chris Pappas (D) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R), while more than $5 million has been spent to support Rep. Mike Collins (R) and oppose Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) in the Georgia Senate race.

No Going Back PAC has also spent more than $5 million in the Alaska Senate race.

Of that money raised, close to $43 million has been spent in aired advertising among those six Senate races, according to a Wednesday report from ad-tracking firm AdImpact . More than $32 million has also been spent on aired advertising for competitive House seats.

Nearly $26 million has been reserved for future ad buys in five of those six Senate races, according to the firm: Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Alaska and Georgia.

Republicans, overall, hold a clear advantage in spending this cycle, though that hasn’t stopped competitive Senate and House Democratic candidates from outraising their GOP counterparts.

AdImpact reported Thursday that this is the first time Republicans have held the Senate spending edge at this point of the election cycle since at least 2020, outspending Democrats by nearly $190 million.

No Going Back PAC is also heavily investing in House races.

The group has invested more than $7 million in Florida’s battleground 25th District, where Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D) and Republican Scott Singer are duking it out as well as close to $6.6 million in New York’s 3rd District represented by Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) and close to $4 million in Michigan’s 4th District represented by Rep. Bill Huizenga (R).

But it’s also notably spending in red districts amid a tough midterm environment for the GOP.

No Going Back PAC, for example, has spent about $285,000 in Texas’s 9th District that was redrawn last year to favor Republicans. Republican Alex Mealer is running against Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in a race that DDHQ rates likely Republican.

The group has also poured more than $235,000 in Texas’s 23rd District, which DDHQ also forecasts will remain in Republican control. Pro-gun YouTuber Brandon Herrera, who’s had a history of making controversial statements, is running against Democrat Katy Padilla Stout.

The source familiar with the Trump political operation’s spending said they’re looking to avoid allowing Democratic attacks to go unanswered in GOP districts, while challenging the party from expanding their map in a way that avoids forcing Republicans to prioritize where to commit resources. At the same time, the group is also focused on expanding Republicans’ own map in districts like New York’s 3 rd and 4 th Congressional Districts and Florida’s 14 and 25 th districts, as examples.

Other Republicans, however, are sounding the alarm over the super PAC’s spending in red states paired with Trump’s recent visits to reliably GOP areas.

Recent and upcoming visits to Nebraska, Oklahoma and Alaska are “warning signs that something’s not right or that there’s concern, because those aren’t rally points that you’re doing … unless you’re actively running for president,” said a GOP operative involved in a 2024 presidential super PAC.

A second Trump-aligned super PAC is also starting to play in several competitive congressional races.

It filed its first official spending report with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) Thursday, showing the group spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in toss-up House districts.

The PAC spent $250,000 to oppose Democrat Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania’s 7th District, just shy of $190,000 to oppose Democrat Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s 3rd District, and almost $845,000 against Democrat Amish Shah in Arizona’s 1st District. Brooks and Cooke are challenging GOP Reps. Ryan Mackenzie and Derrick Van Orden, respectively, while Shah is up against Republican Jay Feely for an open Scottsdale-area seat.

The GOP operative involved in the midterms said Democrats have particularly been effective in using health care issues like the expiration of Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits and the cuts to Medicaid as a result of Republicans’ mega-policy package last year as examples of cost-of-living issues.

Bloomberg Government reported that the group is also spending in Maine’s purple 2nd District, as well. CNBC reported last month that the group had reserved at least $27 million in ad reservations.