Republicans will pay for Trump’s tariffs in the midterms

With midterms rapidly approaching, Republicans had appeared to catch a break on the economy.

After a year in which the war with Iran sent gas prices soaring and pushed inflation to multi-year highs, both June and July’s Consumer Price Index came in tame. Even grocery prices slipped for the first time in months.

But then President Trump returned to his longtime obsession: tariffs.

Indeed, last weekend, talks between the White House and Canada collapsed, and Trump immediately slapped 50 percent tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of Canadian goods, reviving what the Wall Street Journal called “The Dumbest Trade War in History.”

The timing could hardly be worse for Republicans, who had spent months straining to soothe voters’ concerns over the cost of living and attempting to build a midterm message around affordability. Now, tariffs and trade chaos are back in the news, and Republicans are likely going to pay the price.

As the Wall Street Journal noted , “Republicans are already getting pounded on the campaign trail over [Trump’s] tariffs and inflation.” The data confirm that. A majority of Americans, 56 percent, ranked cost of living concerns among the top issues facing the country, according to polling by Politico . Even among Trump voters, a plurality of 33 percent cite rising prices as “among the biggest failures of Trump’s second term.”

To be sure, voters have long disliked tariffs. March’s Harris Poll revealed that 72 percent of Americans — including 60 percent of Republicans — believe Trump’s tariffs have a negative impact.

Opinions have not changed, and evidence of the political implications is emerging. A 54 percent majority of likely voters in battleground states disapprove of the tariffs, according to New York Times-Siena polling , which surveyed voters in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

The result? Reuters-Ipsos polling showed that voters now prefer Democrats’ approach to affordability over the Republicans’ approach by an 8-point margin (36 percent to 28 percent). Moreover, Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot now sits slightly above 6 points, the widest margin of the cycle.

Trump’s overall approval rating is hovering just under 40 percent — more than 17 points underwater. Even key GOP constituencies like ranchers are angry at Trump’s efforts to improve affordability elsewhere by removing tariffs on imported beef.

On the economy, once Trump’s signature strength, his approval has sunk to 34.5 percent and more than 62 percent disapprove.

Republicans recognize the danger, but are powerless to stop it, even as it threatens to undermine what should have been a favorable Senate map. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) warned that the tariffs are causing “tension” and that “the party that owns that tension…will probably suffer the consequences in November.”

Compounding Republican concerns is that the states most affected by these new Canada tariffs are vital to Republicans’ hopes of holding onto the Senate. Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska and Ohio are all extremely vulnerable to Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, and all have hotly contested races this fall.

Aware that tariffs are deeply unpopular and hoping to defend a key Senate seat, Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) called the Canada tariffs a “mistake” before skipping an event with Vice President JD Vance in the state last week, where he defended the duties.

Former Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.), who is trying to win back his old seat in New Hampshire, piled on, saying, “It makes no sense to start a trade war with our closest neighbor.”

Democrats are ready to take advantage, as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson made clear , and the data suggests voters will be receptive to arguments that Trump and Republicans are “making life more expensive.”

While it is true that Trump is not entirely responsible for inflation, which has raged since the COVID-19 pandemic, that may matter little when voters are increasingly pessimistic about the economy, struggling to afford basic necessities, and looking for someone to blame.

Trump should know this well. In 2024, he benefitted from extreme discontent with “Bidenomics”. But now, Trump is actively keeping prices and tariffs in the headlines rather than telling voters how Republicans are working to lower costs.

At the same time, by waging trade wars, doubling down on tariffs, and dismissing affordability as “a fake word,” Trump lets Democrats off the hook for their own vulnerabilities, including an insurgent far left and a party favorability that is 14 points underwater.

Trump may not care about the midterms since he is not on the ballot, but he is seemingly intent on speeding up the date he will become a lame duck. And, in doing so, drastically increasing the chances of the “all-out oversight” investigations into himself and his family that Democrats are already preparing .

Ultimately, the 2026 midterms were always going to be an uphill battle for Republicans, as they always are for the party in power. In order to keep both the House and Senate — or at least one — the GOP needed a coherent affordability agenda and policies which lowered costs and strengthened the economy.

Instead, Republicans got renewed tariffs, for which they will likely pay the price in November.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “ America: Unite or Die. “