Nate Silver: Polling ‘would have to be very wrong’ for Republicans to maintain House control

Pollster Nate Silver claimed Sunday that polling “ would have to be very wrong ” for Republicans to hold on to the House, comments that came a little more than a week before this year’s midterms.

“You’ve seen high turnout in Democratic primaries all year. We talk about the early voting data too. You know, the hard place versus the rock, I guess, is that, to win the Senate, Democrats have to win in some states that President Trump carried by double digits in 2024,” Silver told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on his show.

“So, that’s why in the House, the polling would have to be very wrong, more wrong than 2016 for Democrats to fail to win the House, but the Senate, everyone’s trying to guess: Will this wave be big enough to inundate red states like Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska?”

Republicans are facing an uphill battle with Election Day almost a week away. The party is facing issues like the unpopular war in Iran, concerns about the cost of living and Trump’s slumping approval rating.

According to a polling average from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump’s approval rating was sitting at 39.3 percent Monday afternoon, and his disapproval rating was at 59.3 percent.

DDHQ also forecast that the Democrats will garner 235 House seats in this year’s midterms, 17 seats more than the 218 needed for the House majority .

When it comes to the Senate, DDHQ has also forecast that the Democrats will garner 51 seats in the upcoming elections, gaining the majority in the chamber as well.

Energy costs have become central to this year’s midterms, with the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the oil industry, closed amid the conflict with Iran. Recent polls have shown that voters blame the Trump administration for higher prices, further complicating the Republicans’ midterm landscape.

On Monday afternoon, the average price of a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. was about $4.29, up from about $3.05 last year at the same time, according to AAA.