Iowa Senate, governor races tight in new polling

The Democratic and Republican candidates in the Iowa Senate and gubernatorial races are locked in tight battles, a new survey shows.

The poll, which Suffolk University in Boston conducted from Aug. 20-23 , found that 45 percent of 500 respondents backed GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate race, while 41 percent supported Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek (D).

In the governor’s race, state Auditor Rob Sand (D) leads with 48 percent support over Republican businessman Zach Lahn’s 44 percent. Lahn has never held elected office.

The advantages for Hinson and Sand were within the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Since former President Obama won Iowa in the 2012 election, the state has shifted to the right. Noting President Trump won Iowa by more than 13 points in 2024, David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the latest survey “speaks volumes about where these races stand right now.”

In the Senate race, Turek and Hinson are battling to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who has represented the Hawkeye State in the upper chamber for two terms.

Trump endorsed Hinson days after she jumped into the race, while Obama recorded an ad with Turek — during which the former president and the Democratic candidate, a former U.S. Paralympic basketball player, shot around in a gym.

As of the end of June, Turek’s campaign held a significant financial edge over Hinson’s, with more than $2.3 million on hand to the GOP nominee’s roughly $30,500 , according to the Federal Election Commission.

Decision Desk HQ gives Hinson a 57 percent chance to defeat Turek as of Monday.

The GOP-affiliated Senate Leadership Fund has spent $33 million to boost Hinson so far this cycle, while the Democratic-linked Senate Majority PAC has invested $30 million in TV ads to assist Turek as of last month.

On the governor’s side, Sand and Lahn are fighting to determine who will succeed outgoing Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R). A Democrat has not won an Iowa gubernatorial election since former Gov. Chet Culver (D) in 2006.