Shapiro holds 16-point lead in reelection bid polling

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is cruising toward reelection, according to a new poll of likely voters in the Keystone State.

The latest survey from The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University showed 55 percent of respondents supported Shapiro in the gubernatorial race. Another 39 percent backed GOP state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, and 6 percent did not choose either candidate or refused to answer.

Shapiro’s edge over Garrity among Pennsylvanians of multiple backgrounds is apparent based on the data.

The incumbent governor leads among men, women, likely white voters, likely Black voters and the four age groups the survey split respondents into: ages 18-29, 30-44, 45-64 and 65-plus. He also holds a 34-point lead over Garrity among voters with a college degree and a 4-point edge among those without one, according to the poll.

That includes a whopping 72-point lead among nonwhite respondents without a college degree — while Garrity leads by 5 points among white respondents without a degree.

In 2022, Shapiro won his first election to the governor’s mansion by nearly 15 points over GOP state Sen. Doug Mastriano.

Less than two years after that race, the Pennsylvania governor was a finalist in former Vice President Kamala Harris’s search for a running mate in the 2024 presidential election. Harris ultimately selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, with the Democratic duo losing to President Trump and Vice President Vance that year.

Shapiro has indicated he is considering a bid for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

At the annual National Action Network convention in April, the governor said the Democratic Party is undertaking a “debate” that it “hasn’t had for a good long while,” an internal battle he deemed “healthy” for the country.

“What I can tell you for sure is that I want to be a part of that debate,” he told the Rev. Al Sharpton.

Forty-seven percent of 296 respondents, a smaller group, in the survey said they would be “very likely” to back Shapiro for the Democratic nomination in 2028 . About 39 percent said they were somewhat likely to do so, while 9 percent said they were not too likely and 4 percent said they were not at all likely, the numbers show.

The Times/Inquirer/Siena University survey was conducted from Aug.17-21 among 760 respondents. It has a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.