GOP shrinks ambition despite bashing polls

▪ Final pre-election inflation report shows spike

Top Republican officials are downplaying the polls showing their party trailing Democrats across the midterm board even as the GOP is pulling money from certain key states and districts.

National Republican groups have cut their spending in several battleground contests as they prioritize other races with less than three weeks to go.

On the Senate map, the main super PAC that works to elect Republicans to the upper chamber created a big splash earlier this month when it moved money out of North Carolina, pausing a $30 million ad campaign for GOP nominee Michael Whatley , and shifted funds to Kansas. Republican groups have also pulled some money back in Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is favored to keep his seat.

On the House side, The New York Times first reported Tuesday that Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the main super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership, is cutting off financial support for Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa) and Tom Kean Jr. (N.J.), two of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents.

The group is also withdrawing its ad spending targeting Democratic members that the GOP was hoping to oust, including Reps. Greg Landsman (Ohio) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (Mich.).

Republicans have also pulled back in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, an area that President Trump carried in 2024, suggesting Rep. Susie Lee (D) is in a strong position to win reelection.

Punchbowl News reported Wednesday that CLF threw in the towel on its efforts to oust Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), who is running in a district that Texas Republicans specifically drew during mid-decade redistricting to try to increase their chances of defeating him.

These moves come as Democrats have held a steady and comfortable lead in the generic congressional ballot that has seemed to expand in the past month. Polling has suggested they’re competitive in more traditionally red areas in the Midwest and South.

Republican congressional leadership has downplayed the polling, maintaining that Democrats are being overestimated, as has happened in the most recent presidential cycles.

“I’m telling you the polling is wrong,” said Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) during an interview on Fox News. “They have a lot of polling organizations right now acknowledging that they’re under-sampling Republicans because Republicans don’t want to respond to polls anymore.”

As he campaigns for House candidates, Johnson said he’s seeing “huge” energy in the crowds that isn’t being recorded in polling.

“Our candidates are energized, focused and disciplined,” Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who chairs the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, said in a separate interview on Fox. “We’re going to finish well, stay in the majority, and frankly in states like Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire, we are within the margin of error. Striking distance of adding new states to our majority.”

Both Johnson and Scott referenced the possibility of pollsters under-sampling Republicans, producing results that are too skewed in favor of Democrats, a phenomenon known as nonresponse bias.

Decision Desk HQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley noted pollsters can use data they have available to determine what turnout should look like and weighting to adjust if they are struggling to reach a certain demographic. Still, it’s not necessarily an easy problem to solve.

“The worse your initial sample is, the harder it is to work your way out of it,” he explained.

Skelley said he is more optimistic about polls being decently accurate given their relative success in the 2018 and 2022 midterm cycles, and improvements in presidential years during the Trump era.

“This is a potential issue. I’m not sure it’s worse now than has been in the past, and it may actually even be better, because if the 2024 polling is any indicator, the polls did do a little better on this with this problem. It doesn’t mean they solved it,” Skelley said.

Analysts told Morning Report the money moves may be even more telling.

“When a party chooses to double down or pull out is a pretty good indication of what they think their chances are,” said Republican strategist Samuel Chen .

Chen said polling data is always up for interpretation, but money suggests how a party is really feeling on the ground.

Democrats have also started to pull their money out of contests like North Carolina’s Senate and New Jersey’s 7th District, where Kean is running, but this comes as the party is increasingly convinced they will win these races.

“They’re going to pull out of places that either are hopeless or are safe. Just like when you pull a quarterback from a football game,” Chen said.

▪ The Hill : Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Kansas Senate to toss-up.

▪ The Hill : Three polls show James Talarico with slight lead in Texas.

More than 70 million Americans on Wednesday learned their Social Security payments will rise by 3.6 percent , as part of the annual cost-of-living adjustment, which is tied to inflation.

The Social Security trust fund is set to run insolvent sometime around 2032, leading to questions about what changes are coming. In our Viewer’s Voice segment, a viewer asked why Congress can’t just raise the cap that currently sets a limit on how much Americans can be taxed. I put the question to Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.).

“That would be very difficult for a number of people to vote for. However, I will tell you that it’s a pretty good idea,” Carter said, if benefits were also increased. “We’ve got to be very careful not to raise taxes. Republicans don’t want to do that,” he added.

While we are focused on the 2026 midterms right now, the debate over how to save Social Security will likely be one of the dominant discussions on Capitol Hill and in elections for years to come.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6 p.m. EDT/5 p.m. CDT on NewsNation.

The Trump administration’s investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) is aimed at building a case to strip her of her citizenship and ultimately deport her, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday. Officials have reportedly issued more than a dozen subpoenas seeking testimony before a grand jury, including to some of Omar’s relatives.

The Supreme Court sided with Republicans for a second time in a legal battle over TV advertising costs, ruling that the Federal Communications Commission doesn’t need to decide on Democrats’ challenge to its policy of granting political parties access to cheaper rates before the midterms. Lower judges had told the agency to move more quickly with Election Day fast approaching.

A coalition of states is suing the artificial intelligence firm OpenAI over accusations that it has misled users about the safety of its chatbot, ChatGPT. The bipartisan group of eight states allege the company moved forward with developing AI products despite knowing they require safety guardrails.

President Trump speaks at a campaign rally at the Laughlin Bullhead International Airport, Oct. 14, 2026, in Bullhead City, Ariz. (John Locher, Associated Press)

HEATING UP: Soaring energy prices pushed inflation up in September , dealing a blow to Republicans just 20 days before the midterm elections.

The consumer price index rose 3.7 percent relative to September 2025, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday. Compared with the previous month, prices were 0.6 percent higher, the largest monthly increase in five months.

Gas prices accounted for much of the surge — increasing 34.2 percent over the previous year and 9.1 percent for the month.

The latest inflation report is more bad news for Republicans, who are trying to convince voters to keep them in office, even as voters consistently rank affordability concerns at the top of their priority list and say the president bears responsibility for the high prices.

Only 22 percent of voters approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, while 55 percent say inflation is “not at all” under control, according to a new Fox News poll .

The report has also raised concerns about a potential interest rate jump when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. Investors still predict the next rate hike will wait for December, but the chances of an October increase jumped from 22 percent Tuesday to 44 percent yesterday morning, before falling again to 33 percent by the end of the day, according to CME FedWatch.

Investors will be watching for clues about the Fed’s next move when Chair Kevin Warsh joins Kristalina Georgieva , managing director ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF),for a fireside chat at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Thailand tonight at 11:30 p.m. EDT.

▪ The Hill : Social Security COLA set to rise by 3.6 percent in 2027.

▪ The Hill : As inflation rises, 44 percent say they struggle to afford basic costs: Pew

▪ The Hill Insider : Hot inflation data puts Fed in complicated spot.

BACK ON THE TRAIL : Former Vice President Kamala Harris announced a final campaign blitz this fall on behalf of several vulnerable Democrats, as she weighs whether to seek the White House again in 2028.

Her office announced a tour that will take her to several early presidential primary states in the final couple of weeks of the campaign season, from Oct. 21-30. Harris had already announced stops in Georgia and Nevada, but she added appearances in New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Mississippi, as well as a virtual event in Florida. The Associated Press was first to report on the schedule.

The 2024 Democratic presidential nominee has said in recent interviews that she is focused on helping Democrats in 2026, but she has not ruled out a 2028 run for the White House.

▪ The Hill : Harris says she’s undecided on 2028.

▪ The Hill : Harris to Trump on press ban: ‘Why don’t you just leave?’

▪ The Wall Street Journal : Harris’s husband privately says he doesn’t want her to run.

HEGSETH, INTERRUPTED: Protesters repeatedly interrupted a major Army convention panel featuring Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to call him a “war criminal” and a “coward” over the administration’s approach to Iran and Gaza.

Hegseth, whose remarks centered on his leadership shake-up in the Army and plans to integrate autonomous systems and drones into the military, made light of some of the interruptions.

“She thinks highly of me,” Hegseth joked, after an audience member called him a “war criminal,” and said, “It appears we have a bit of a tactic,” after he was drowned out by the protesters.

Six protesters were removed by security and local police in Washington, D.C. The National Iranian American Council and CodePink took responsibility for the protests.

▪ The Hill : Five takeaways from Hegseth’s remarks at Army convention.

The president will participate in a Rose Garden lunch at 12:30 p.m. He will participate in a pre-taped interview at 4 p.m. and tele-rallies at 6 and 6:30 p.m.

The Senate will meet at 9:30 a.m. for a pro forma session.

The House will convene at 11 a.m. for a pro forma session.

White House press secretary Katie Zacharia speaks with reporters in the James Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House, Oct. 13, 2026, in Washington. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Associated Press)

BURDEN OF PROOF : White House press secretary Katie Zacharia is under rising scrutiny about whether she passed the bar exam after giving an unexpected answer to a question about her legal background.

The Campaign for Accountability filed a complaint Wednesday with the State Bar of California, asking for an investigation into the new press secretary. The watchdog group argued in the complaint that if Zacharia has presented herself to the public as able to practice law without having a license, it would be a crime under California law.

“Ms. Zacharia has represented herself as a lawyer repeatedly to buttress her reputation and credibility as a television legal commentator and now as the White House spokesperson, yet it seems it was all a lie,” Michelle Kuppersmith, Campaign for Accountability’s executive director, said in a statement.

Zacharia’s LinkedIn profile states that she served as general counsel of Fix California, an organization started by Trump administration official Richard Grenell , from 2024 to 2025.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Zacharia sat for the bar exam soon after graduating from Pepperdine’s law school in 2011 but didn’t pass.

Scrutiny surrounding Zacharia emerged quickly after her first press briefing Tuesday morning. Later in the day, she was asked where she passed the bar exam, to which she responded, “When I moved to China.”

She told The New York Times on Wednesday that she misheard the question.

“I assumed the question was, ‘Where were you after law school?’” she said over the phone from Trump’s rally in Arizona.

“That’s all I could hear over the sound of Marine One,” she added.

Zacharia served as an “associate” at a law firm in Beijing from 2011 to 2013. But experts told The Hill’s Mallory Wilson that even if Zacharia worked at a law firm in China, that doesn’t necessarily make her a lawyer.

“I don’t believe that she could have taken the Chinese bar exam — American citizens are not, by rule, allowed to sit for it, and there’s no apparent reason to believe that she could have made some special arrangement (if she did, I’d love to learn how she managed that, as it would be extremely difficult),” Taisu Zhang , a professor at Yale Law School who works on contemporary Chinese law and politics, wrote to Wilson.

▪ The Associated Press : Zacharia’s debut shows pitfalls, possibilities of press secretary role.

▪ CNN : White House officials question how long Zacharia can last.

Elon Musk speaks at the SATELLITE Conference and Exhibition, March 9, 2020, in Washington. (Susan Walsh, Associated Press file)

SIGNAL LOST : Ukraine said Wednesday that it suddenly lost access to Starlink’s military system Starshield, prompting concerns about the implications on its air defenses and questions about whether Washington was responsible.

Ukraine’s former defense minister said later in the day that SpaceX was working to restore satellite speeds after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of dire consequences from the interruption. It was not immediately clear, however, what caused Ukraine to lose access to the space-based communications network or where the order originated.

A source familiar with the matter told The Hill that Starlink services were cut off for objects that traveled more than 100 miles an hour, impacting the capabilities of Ukraine’s drones, airplanes and helicopters.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk faced pressure to explain Ukraine’s restricted access to Starshield. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said he hoped the disruptions were unintended and SpaceX was“doing everything it can to fix a temporary glitch.”

Musk stressed that his company was not responsible for any decisions that would impact Ukraine’s military capabilities, saying the technology is owned and controlled by the U.S. government and that decisions about limiting usage or speed would be made by the military and Trump.

“Starlink is a commercial service owned and controlled by SpaceX. Usage of Starlink is limited to civilian or defensive activities and cannot be used for offensive military action, as doing so would be inappropriate for a commercial company ,” Musk wrote on social platform X .

▪ The Hill : The Memo: Crisis, chaos hit Ukraine as questions rise over Trump’s role.

▪ BBC : Why is Starlink so important on the battlefield?

The silent voter revolt that could upend Congress , Sheldon H. Jacobson writes in The Hill.

The West can’t power its future without more transmission , GOP Govs. Spencer Cox (Utah) and Joe Lombardo (Nev.) write in The Hill.

Kimberly Guilfoyle speaks during the Republican National Convention, July 17, 2024, in Milwaukee. (J. Scott Applewhite, Associated Press file)

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for the weekly news quiz!

Kimberly Guilfoyle dominated much of the week’s headlines with the controversy that led to her ouster as ambassador to Greece. So th is week’s quiz will look back at her winding career that’s gone back and forth between media personality and public servant, and a personal life that’s included some high-profile partners.

Be sure to email your responses to jgans@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line.

What job did Guilfoyle hold when she married Gavin Newsom in 2001?

How much did Donald Trump Jr. reportedly pay Guilfoyle for her share of the Florida house they bought together in 2021?

A Harper’s Bazaar spread in 2004 compared Guilfoyle and Newsom to which political family?

Which Fox News show did Guilfoyle join as co-host in 2011?