Gavin Newsom faces challenge of moving from Trump troller to national winner

As Gavin Newsom prepares to leave his job as governor of California after eight years, the question he faces isn’t whether he wants to run for president, but how competitive he can be in what is expected to be a crowded field.

Newsom, who began the 2028 conversation as one of the party’s most prominent prospective contenders and a frequent antagonist of President Trump, could face competition from Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and others. Both Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez have seen their popularity surge in recent months.

At the same time, the governor will have to contend with the political baggage tied to his time in the governor’s mansion and also how he maintains a front-and-center profile once he leaves office. He also has to figure out where he fits into an ever-changing Democratic Party.

While Democrats broadly acknowledge he’s still among the top tier contenders as 2028 draws closer, they wonder how he’ll actually fare when he transitions from governor to candidate.

“Newsom’s challenge was always going to be, ‘Can he pivot from successful Trump foil and resistance troller to someone people see winning a general election across the country?” Democratic strategist Eddie Vale said. “And that definitely becomes harder the more other candidates that have competed and won in purple and red states are making a credible case for themselves.”

Ossoff is one potential candidate who has ascended in recent chatter among Democrats. The senator has impressed Democrats by also going after Trump but using a range of policies — including on the economy — to draw a contrast with Republicans, boosting his presidential prospects.

There’s also Ocasio-Cortez, who has risen in polls and on the unofficial scorecards of political observers. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost in the 2024 election, is another possible contender.

In an interview this past week with CNN’s Jake Tapper, Newsom said he would not run for president if Harris ran, pointing to their overlap among supporters. For years, the two California politicians, who say they are friends, have shared advisers, donors and other allies as they have ascended on parallel tracks of their careers.

“I wouldn’t do that to her,” Newsom said in the interview. “I wouldn’t do it to me. … I won’t waste everyone’s time. Who needs that?”

Privately, Newsom has told some around him that he doesn’t think Harris will run for president, sources tell The Hill. Some donors have also said if they had to choose between the two, they would choose Newsom, simply because the party is turning the page from 2024.

One source close to Newsom said, “I think what he was trying to do was send a signal that he was paying her due deference.”

Other strategists interpreted the move in other ways.

“I think it was very smart of Newsom to put her on the defensive, like ‘Well, are you really going to run again and keep us from having a new generation of leaders like Newsom?” said Democratic strategist Luis Miranda, a veteran of the Obama White House and the Democratic National Committee. “I thought it was a well-calculated thing to do.”

In recent days, Newsom embarked on a tour of several states in the South, including South Carolina — the first state to vote in the Democratic Party — Alabama and North Carolina. Some strategists concluded that it was a signal he was looking ahead at the primary and getting out to some Super Tuesday states.

On Friday, the governor issued an executive order aimed at addressing the potential dangers of artificial intelligence. The order calls on a group of experts to meet and quickly put together guidance for the state — home to some of the largest tech companies — to strengthen AI safety and security.

Last year, Newsom scored points with Democrats for leading the charge on Proposition 50, the successful redistricting fight that could help California gain Democratic seats in the U.S. House.

During that effort, he built an enviable donor list, which could give him an added boost if he enters the presidential race.

“No other candidate will come into it with that kind of proven national donor list,” said Garry South, the veteran Democratic strategist who is based in California and has previously advised Newsom.

South said Newsom will remain at the top of the heap of contenders because, “I don’t think any candidate in the field has his charisma and his communications skills. I just don’t.”

Asked about his potential challengers — including someone like Ocasio-Cortez or Ossoff — South said that Democrats “are going to be very pragmatic.”

“We’re not going to be looking for some out-of-the-box candidate,” he said.

Still, he cautioned that Newsom will have some obstacles, including where he has governed.

“We’re still a state that people love to hate,” he said. “He’s going to have to deal with that.”

Other Democrats say Newsom could face other battles.

“Name recognition is a blessing and a potential liability,” Democratic strategist Basil Smikle said. “We know a lot about him already, but soon voters will have to evaluate him against other Democrats, not just in opposition to Trump.

“Voters may feel there’s no room for him to grow whereas they’re still getting to know other candidates,” Smikle added. “It’s the problem of peaking too soon.”

But Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons, who served as communications director to Harris in the White House, said that Newsom’s “early moves have given him a head start in dominating the adept social media Trump antagonist lane.”

“The others will have to catch up,” he said.

Miranda said Newsom’s skills, particularly on Trump, still cast him as one of the contest’s front-runners.

“I still think nobody trolls Trump better than he does,” Miranda said. “It may sound silly and it may sound not presidential, but it means a lot in this day and age, in terms of feeling like you didn’t let the bully hold you down.”