Kornacki sees tide ‘working against’ Democrat in Minnesota Senate race

Steve Kornacki, NBC News’s chief data analyst, on Wednesday morning said there is growing indication that Minnesota’s tight Senate race could swing in the GOP’s favor in the November election.

“There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats,” Kornacki said on the “Today” show.

The Democratic nominee, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, has faced criticism from her Republican opponent, Michele Tafoya, over accusations that she failed to stop a widespread fraud scandal in the state.

Kornacki noted Republicans have “been trying for decades” to flip the Minnesota seat red.

“What they think is working in their favor here is there’s a state scandal there about Medicaid fraud,” he said. “The governor, Tim Walz, didn’t run for reelection because of it — this is his lieutenant governor.”

Tafoya has sought to tie her Democratic opponent to a widespread money laundering scheme, in which prosecutors estimate as much as around $9 billion was stolen.

“Listen, it is rich to hear my opponent talk about lost access to programs when under her watch, as second in command of this state, Minnesota saw billions and billions and billions of fraud dollars walk out the door to fraudsters while Medicaid was gutted,” the Republican nominee said during a debate last week.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) dropped his reelection bid earlier this year amid scrutiny over his handling of the fraud scandal.

“The governor said that more should have been done and more should have been done sooner, and I agree with him,” Flanagan said during the debate. “But I supported the independent office of inspector general. I also supported harsher penalties.”

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted its rating in this race from likely Democrat to lean Democrat on Tuesday.

Flanagan has maintained a slight advantage in polling, posting a 4-point lead within the margin of error of a Minnesota Star Tribune survey earlier this month.