Democratic momentum keeps rolling in race for Senate

▪ Dems’ chances rise in key Senate races

▪ Stars and Stripes in the Pentagon’s crosshairs

Democrats are riding a wave of momentum as they look to expand their Senate map, with new forecasts offering fresh optimism that flipping the upper chamber could be within reach.

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted the Senate races in Texas and Iowa toward Democrats, rating both as “toss-ups.” Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) similarly rates them as toss-ups.

“Even though, on paper, it should be extraordinarily difficult for Democrats to flip seats that Trump won by more than 13 points, it’s increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing them to be more competitive than the Lean category reflects,” Jessica Taylor , Cook Political Report’s Senate and governors editor, wrote in an analysis.

Texas Democratic Senate nominee, state Rep. James Talarico , has consistently polled even better than Beto O’Rourke did in 2018 — the closest Democrats have recently come to winning a Senate seat in the state. Talarico’s favorability ratings remain net positive, as his scandal-prone GOP opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton , remains underwater by double digits.

In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is a formidable candidate, but the tough political environment has hit Iowa especially hard , as the agriculture-dependent economy contends with President Trump ’s tariffs, along with the rising prices for fertilizer and diesel due to the Iran war.

She faces Josh Turek , a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball who represents a state House district that Trump won by 9 points in 2024.

Democrats also got some encouraging results in Alaska on Tuesday, when former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) got 48 percent of the primary vote and incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) received nearly 43 percent of the vote. With no other serious contenders in the all-party primary, it served as something of a dress rehearsal before they face off again in November.

Democrats need to net four seats to win the majority in the Senate, a hefty undertaking in an election year with a map that structurally favors Republicans. But the downstream impact of Trump’s sinking approval rating, along with historic headwinds facing the majority party, has started to open up seats that once looked like long shots.

Trump won Ohio by more than 11 points in 2024 — the largest presidential margin of victory the state had seen in 40 years — but the Senate race is now considered a toss-up, as incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R) vies to serve the rest of Vice President Vance ’s Senate term after being appointed last year to the seat.

He faces a strong opponent in former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who narrowly lost his reelection bid to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) in 2024. The Hill’s Helen Huiskes reports that the backlash to data centers could be a decisive factor if Husted goes down.

Kansas is also seen as a long-shot chance for Democrats to grab a seat, with megachurch Rev. Adam Hamilton , the Democratic nominee, holding a significant fundraising advantage over incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R). Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its rating of the race from safe to likely Republican earlier this month after Hamilton won the nomination.

Moderate Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been able to hold on for years in the blue-leaning Maine, but Democrats are newly energized after replacing Graham Platner with Troy Jackson on their ticket.

Republicans are bullish on their chances of slipping the open Senate seat in Michigan, where former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers is facing progressive former health official Abdul El-Sayed .

A loss for Democrats in Michigan or Maine could put flipping the Senate out of reach. While Republicans have a financial advantage, Democrats have the clear edge when it comes to voter enthusiasm, DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley said in an interview.

Democrats also lead in the generic congressional ballot, with 46 percent of Americans saying they’d back the average Democrat, compared to 40 percent who would back the average Republican, if the election were held today, according to DDHQ’s aggregator.

The national political landscape has become increasingly important as politics becomes less local, said Skelley. According to the latest polling average, 38 percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing, down 2 points from last week and 4 points from last month.

“The fundamental problems for the president’s party have not changed. In fact, some of them have worsened,” Skelley said, pointing to gas prices and the ongoing Iran crisis.

“Basically, every time that seems to heat up… Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot grows a little bit, and President Trump’s approval rating sinks a little bit more.”

DDHQ puts Republicans’ chances of winning the Senate at 54 percent and Democrats’ at 46 percent, a significant narrowing of the GOP’s 20-point advantage over Democrats last month.

“For practical purposes, it’s a coin flip,” Skelley said, “which, I think, if you told Democrats six months ago, a year ago, that they had roughly a coin flip’s chance of winning the Senate, they would have been like, ‘Well, that’s great.’ Because it didn’t look that way a year ago.”

▪ The Hill : Cook Political Report moves Texas, Iowa governor’s races toward Dems.

▪ The Hill : El-Sayed holds slight lead in Michigan in AARP poll.

The list is now growing by the day of candidates on the November ballot calling for tougher regulations on data center buildouts, with Rogers, the Michigan GOP nominee, the latest on Thursday. Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.) represents parts of northern Virginia, which has the greatest number of data centers nationwide. He offered a warning when I spoke with him Thursday night.

“ People talk about the issue with China, but honestly, the people who are seeing their utility bills double and triple don’t care about the race against China. We’re going to lose that race because 70 percent of Americans now don’t want data centers in their community,” Subramanyam told me.

This is part of the balance that lawmakers are going to have to deal with in the coming years: listening to the concerns of their constituents, while also weighing the national security concerns of potentially losing ground to China in the AI battle.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6 p.m. EDT/5 p.m. CDT on NewsNation.

Trump took part in a discussion with his former fixer Michael Cohen on Thursday, suggesting the lawyer was “forced” to testify against the president during his 2024 hush money trial in New York. The full conversation, which marks a full circle moment in the pair’s apparent reconciliation, will air on Sunday.

The Democratic National Committee has narrowed down the list of possible cities for its 2028 convention to three — Philadelphia, Boston and Denver. The location is expected to be finalized in the coming months.

House Democrats are calling on Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin to abandon plans to equip immigration agents with electric shock gloves, The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch exclusively reports . The Democrats on the Homeland Security panel argued it requires significant training and restraint on officers’ part, placing the public at risk.

FILE – The Treasury Department building is pictured at dusk in Washington, June 6, 2019. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

SHAKY GROUND : The bond market doesn’t appear to be settling down, at least so far, despite the moves from the Trump administration to try to quell concerns.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield stood at 5.25 percent as of the end of the day Thursday, just below the 5.3 percent mark it reached on Tuesday, the highest yield since April 2007. That was just months before the start of a financial crisis that became the Great Recession and upended the global economy.

The yield on the 30-year bond hasn’t closed at under 5 percent since July 6.

The Treasury Department announced Wednesday it would double the maximum amount of the country’s long-term debt that it can buy back starting on Sept. 9 and lasting through at least Nov. 4. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is willing to intervene further during an interview with CNBC on Thursday.

Experts told The Hill’s Julia Manchester and Max Rego that unpredictability surrounding the Iran war, the president’s tariff policies, increased spending on AI and the soaring national debt are contributing to the volatile economic situation.

Markets did initially rally in response to the Treasury Department’s move, sending bond yields down and the price of gold and silver up. But the yield rose again on Thursday.

▪ The Hill : What to know about the bond market situation.

▪ The Associated Press : Why the Treasury’s moves haven’t worked so far.

▪ Reuters : Federal Reserve officials tread carefully.

HITTING THE HOMESTRETCH : Trump will travel to South Carolina today to make a pitch trying to help Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) get across the finish line ahead of her Senate primary runoff next week.

Graham is seeking the Republican nomination for a full six-year term in place of her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), but must fend off a challenge from Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.).

The president has endorsed Graham, the sibling of his onetime-adversary-turned-ally, but Norman may have an opening after Graham’s lack of experience was on display at their debate earlier this week.

Graham was asked a question about whether Taiwan and the South China Sea are U.S. national security issues, and she responded that she’s “not that informed on national security.”

Graham defended her comments by saying that she’s not a “career politician.” But the incident speaks directly to the attacks she’s received from critics who say she is too inexperienced to serve a full term.

▪ The Hill : Trump seeks to boost Graham ahead of runoff.

▪ The State : Will top South Carolina Republicans endorse in the race?

CLOSING IN : A top Canadian official signaled that Canada and the U.S. are close to finalizing a deal to avoid Trump’s threatened tariffs as the latest deadline approaches.

Unless Trump issues an extension or a deal is reached, 50 percent tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods are set to take effect at midnight. Trump delayed the implementation of the tariffs for three days on Tuesday as he said the two countries were approaching a deal.

Dominic LeBlanc , the minister for Canada-U.S. trade, was in Washington, D.C., again on Thursday to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer for talks.

“We’re very close. We continue to make progress,” LeBlanc said.

The terms of the deal have yet to be released.

▪ The Associated Press : Canadian premier says Trump is a ‘bad person.’

FREEZE : GOP Sen. Kevin Cramer (N.D.) said he’s placing a hold on all Trump nominees in protest of the administration’s wetlands policy.

Cramer told The Hill in a statement that he’s disappointed the administration is leaving a Biden-era rule on wetlands in place for now, leading to his decision to block Trump nominees. E&E News first reported Cramer’s position.

“My farmers are furious and so am I. There won’t be another nominee confirmed until something changes,” he said, calling the rule favored by “environmental extremists.”

The rule seeks to prevent the draining of wetlands protected under conservation easements, protecting duck habitats.

Holds can slow the process of confirming nominees in the Senate, requiring the chamber to spend hours debating them and taking additional votes.

▪ The Hill : Trump lifts summer gas restrictions early.

PROPERTY SEARCH : The FBI reportedly carried out a search of former Rep. Eric Swalwell ’s (D-Calif.) home on Sunday as part of an investigation into sexual assault allegations against him.

Sources familiar with the investigation told CNN that federal agents seized electronic devices from Swalwell at the San Francisco airport a day before the raid at his home. Four women confirmed to the outlet that they have been contacted by the FBI as part of a federal investigation into the former congressman.

Swalwell was the front-runner in the California gubernatorial race when multiple allegations of sexual misconduct came out against him. He denies wrongdoing, but the controversy led him to drop out of the race and resign from office.

A special election to replace Swalwell in the House was held on Tuesday. DDHQ projected Thursday that California state Sen. Aisha Wahab (D) will win the seat to serve the remainder of Swalwell’s term.

▪ Los Angeles Times : Swalwell briefly detained, source says.

The president will participate in photo opportunities at 11 a.m. He will travel to Myrtle Beach, S.C., to deliver remarks at 7 p.m. and return to the White House after.

The Pentagon is seen from the air, July 15, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

STARS AND STRIPES : The battle over the editorial independence of the military news outlet Stars and Stripes has moved into the spotlight following the retirement announcement from the paper’s longtime publisher.

A trio of Senate Democrats sent a letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday to defend the outlet’s independence. Publisher Max Lederer , who has led the paper as publisher since 2007, announced Tuesday that he would retire at the end of next month amid issues over the Pentagon’s attempts to direct coverage.

He said his philosophy of leadership and “understanding of the value and mission” of the outlet is different in “fundamental ways” from the plans that the Pentagon has for it.

The announcement came after the Defense Department appointed an active-duty Navy captain, William Urban , to be the publisher’s deputy without consulting Lederer.

Democratic Sens. Richard Blumenthal (Conn.), Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) and Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) said in the letter that the appointment of Urban “raises serious questions” about the paper’s independence.

The Pentagon has sought to mold Stars and Stripes’s editorial output during Trump’s second term, outlining changes in an eight-page memo released in March. The memo included a requirement that content be “consistent with good order and discipline of the military.”

Top Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in January that the department would “refocus” the outlet away from “woke distractions that syphon morale.”

Stars and Stripes has operated independently from the Pentagon under a framework established in 1994, even though its staff are department employees and the outlet receives partial funding from the agency.

▪ CBS News : Pentagon considers firing publisher ahead of retirement.

▪ The Hill : Army plans to phase out drone unit championed by sacked generals.

President Trump, right, meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Sentosa Island in Singapore, on June 12, 2018.

REKINDLING THE SPARK : Trump is pushing to resume his bromance with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un , The Hill’s Mallory Wilson reports , but experts are cautioning that doing so is likely to be fruitless and could harm the U.S. alliance with South Korea.

Trump this week told reporters he plans to meet with Kim later this year but did not provide additional details about when a meeting could take place. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has privately discussed setting up an in-person discussion with the North Korean leader when he’s next in Asia, which would likely be in November for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in China.

“The fact that I get along with him — that’s a good thing, not a bad thing,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday. “He has 57 very powerful nuclear weapons. Should have never allowed it to happen. If I was president, I wouldn’t have allowed it to happen. But he’s got them.”

Trump met with Kim three times during his first term, but denuclearization talks stalled, and Kim showed no interest in diplomacy under the Biden administration.

On Sunday, Trump announced that he was ordering the Pentagon to reduce the U.S.’s participation in joint military exercises with South Korea this week, in part to avoid irking Kim.

Michael Sobolik , a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told Wilson that scaling down military exercises with South Korea worked during Trump’s first term to secure a meeting with Kim, but he was skeptical the same tactic would work this time around.

“It’s pretty clear from the first term that he views America’s relationship with South Korea as a complicating factor in his ability to negotiate directly with Kim,” Sobolik said. “The main question I’m asking right now is: What’s Kim’s price going to be for face-to-face meetings with Trump?”

▪ Reuters : China blames U.S. for Korea tensions.

▪ BBC : Trump wants to be friends with Kim, but South Korea could pay the price.

Could Iran try a midterms October surprise? Marc A. Thiessen writes in The Hill.

Americans are getting caught in the safety net , former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Les Ford write in The Wall Street Journal.

The U.S. Capitol is seen beyond the Freedom 250 Grand Prix race track, Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

And finally … 👏👏👏 Congrats to this week’s Morning Report quiz winners ! They were revved up for this racing quiz.

Here’s who went 4/4: Richard Baznik, Jess Elger, Stan Wasser, Chuck Schoenenberger, Ned Sauthoff, Harry Strulovici, Rick Schmidtke, Vicenta Montoya, Linda L. Field, Lou Tisler, Bob Hickerson, Mark R. Williamson, Carmine Petracca, Pam Manges and Steve James .

West Palm Beach is the city that is not on the list of this year’s locations for the IndyCar series.

The race was extended from 125 laps to 147 because that produces a 250-mile racetrack .

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum worked along with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to design the course. Despite having many jobs, this was not one of them for Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The National Gallery of Art conducted a study on the impact of the expected high speeds on its artwork. The gallery declined to release specifics of the study but implemented safety measures for its staff, visitors, collections and facilities.