These households could spend more to heat their homes this winter, federal outlook says

(NEXSTAR) – While some households may spend slightly less on heating their homes this winter compared to last year, others may see price hikes of 20% or more, a new federal report outlines.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration this week released its Winter Fuels Outlook, offering projections of how much households will spend on heating costs and energy consumption. It takes into account the four most common heating fuels used and anticipated average temperatures across the U.S., as well as the potentially historic El Niño weather pattern (but more on that in a moment).

Energy prices and the local forecast impact just how much you will spend on heating your home this winter, the EIA contends. However, the agency overall projects that those who rely on either natural gas or propane to heat their homes “will have lower energy expenditures this winter.” That’s driven by lower fuel costs, according to the report.

Households using electricity or heating oil won’t be as lucky.

The EIA’s outlook suggests that, between November and March, those who use natural gas to heat their homes could spend about 9% less than they did last year, the largest dip across any fuel type. Those using propane may see a roughly 3% decline in costs.

Among homes relying on electricity, the cost may rise by about 4% this winter. In homes that use heating oil — about 3% of U.S. households — the EIA projects prices will jump by about 21% over last year.

The outlook notes that regional temperatures could have an impact on those average changes.

While “similar or warmer temperatures” are anticipated across the South, Midwest and Northeast, the EIA says the West could be in for a colder winter this year, causing some categories to swing higher.

In the West alone, households using natural gas or electricity could see their bills rise by about 7% and 9%, respectively, over last year. The year-over-year change is not nearly as drastic among other regions, the EIA report shows:

The EIA said this year’s El Niño weather pattern, which is shaping up to be the strongest in recorded history , “could lead to large temperature variations from our forecast.”

El Niño and its counterpart La Niña typically reach peak strength in the winter months. This year, El Niño is expected to peak between October and December. Last month , forecasters said that during that timeframe, “there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.”

Whenever El Niño reaches peak strength in the winter months, it has its largest impact on weather in North America.

El Niño usually brings warmer, dry weather up north and to the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, the southern half of the country can expect a wetter winter, with more rain and snow. The exact dividing line moves year to year, depending on the position of the jet stream. High-tide flooding may be a bigger problem during El Niño years as well, according to the National Weather Service, and especially on the West Coast.

Looking at trade wind patterns, Columbia University climate scientist Azhar Ehsan said in a September media briefing that this year’s atmospheric evolution looks similar to that of 1997, when one of the strongest-ever El Niños formed.

The super-strong El Niño contributed to chaotic weather from coast to coast. While the Northeast was hit with ice storms, the Southeast and California were drenched with flooding rain. Deadly tornadoes also tore across Florida.

One upside of the weird weather in 1997 was that heating costs were 10% lower nationwide compared to a normal year. That sort of savings might be welcome in 2026, as energy costs have soared .

A recent report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association said U.S. households are projected to spend, on average, more than $1,000 to heat their homes this winter.