2026 midterms: 7 key governor races to watch and where they stand

( NewsNation ) — With early voting underway in several states, 36 governorships are on the ballot Nov. 3.

Decision Desk HQ ‘s forecast (as of Oct. 18) has Democrats favored in 21 of the 36 races, with four rated as toss-ups.

These are the races to watch this November.

Billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson spent nearly $100 million of his own money to win the Republican nomination, beating Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, 53% to 47%.

The latest DDHQ forecast shows Jackson narrowly behind Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, at 55% to 45%.

If elected, Lance Bottoms would be Georgia’s first female and first Black governor , and possibly the first Black woman elected to governor anywhere in the U.S. A win would make her the first Democrat elected governor since Roy Barnes in 1998.

Democrat Amy Acton is favored with a 60%-win probability over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, according to DDHQ’s forecast .

Trump rallied for Ramaswamy in Youngstown Oct. 12. Former President Barack Obama is scheduled to campaign with Acton and Senate candidate Sherrod Brown in Cleveland Oct. 24.

If she wins, Acton would be the first Democratic gubernatorial victory in Ohio since Ted Strickland in 2006.

Nevada is DDHQ’s closest governor’s race in the country. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, with Lombardo holding a 51%-win probability, according to DDHQ .

Ford has hammered the incumbent on the cost of living and his ties to Trump. Data centers have become a dominant issue, as 80% of the state’s land is owned by the federal government.

State Auditor Rob Sand is the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, which hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Chet Culver in 2006. He faces Republican Zach Lahn this November.

DDHQ’s forecast has Sand with a 73%-win probability.

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican Rep. John James with a 76%-win probability to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer , according to DDHQ’s forecast .

Her running mate, state Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks, would make it Michigan’s first all-female ticket, and Republicans haven’t won the governorship since 2014.

Gov. Kathy Hochul is a clear favorite over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with a 91% win probability , according to DDHQ. The two met Oct. 13 in their only scheduled debate , where they sparred over immigration, Trump and living costs.

Democrat Xavier Becerra faces Republican Steve Hilton to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom. Becerra would be California’s first Latino governor since the late 1800s. No Republican has been elected governor in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Becerra holds a 96% win probability over Hilton, according to DDHQ.