Whole Hog Politics: The sprawling political transformation of Texas

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Some 21 million people — more than two-thirds of all Texans — live in the triangle formed by Houston, Dallas and San Antonio. It is a region the size of the state of New York with a population larger than 46 of the 50 states — and it’s still booming.

Demographers expect the Texas Triangle to continue to drive Lone Star State growth, with the region soon to have three quarters of the state population . It is a megalopolis that will one day surpass the Acela Corridor between Boston and Washington, D.C., as the Northeast withers and the Sun Belt blooms. In two or three decades, we may find that 20 percent of all Americans live in the triangle region.

If you followed those long, fat ribbons of concrete — I-35 from Dallas to San Antonio, I-10 from San Antonio to Houston and I-45 from Houston to Dallas — it would take you the better part of a day. Certainly, it will feel that way if you hit central Austin during rush hour traffic. But unlike the Northeast megalopolis, which is anchored by New York City, the Texas Triangle is all about the sprawl.

Places like little Waller County, northwest of Houston, keep recording shattering growth numbers, adding more than 13,000 residents in just the first five years of this decade . In 1990, Waller County was rural and agricultural with a population of about 23,000. Now it is almost entirely suburban with a population of more than 73,000. The three biggest cities in the triangle are stagnant or even — in the case of Dallas — shrinking, but the burbs keep booming.

Flat terrain, a year-round building season and typically permissive rules for zoning, etc. mean that while many places with growing economies chafe under housing shortages, the Texas Triangle offers 60,000 square miles of places to put shopping malls, subdivisions and schools.

There are serious political implications to all this upheaval. Texas was, as recently as 20 years ago, one of the least suburban large states in the country. Because of the nature of the dominant industries in the state — energy and agriculture — Texas was a state of small towns and big cities but much less of the in-between than places in California and the Northeast. But the 21st century boom has changed that. Texas will soon be a state that is 50 percent suburban, like those other places that boomed in the middle of the 20th century.

This is all happening at an inauspicious time for Texas Republicans. When former President George W. Bush made the leap from Texas governor to the presidency, he did so on the strength of Republicans in the suburbs — the so-called red wall that encircled America’s big, blue cities. If half of all voters lived in the burbs and the burbs were mostly Republican, you didn’t need to be Karl Rove to figure out where the action was.

But that changed in the Trump era, both because of what happened in the Republican Party but also what happened in the suburbs. It wasn’t just Texas that saw rapid growth in the suburbs in the first quarter of this century, which made those precincts younger and less white than they had traditionally been in the 1900s. Simultaneously, Republicans — first by accident and then very intentionally — shifted their pitch away from the core of their coalition back to the Eisenhower era in favor of working-class voters. Affluent, upwardly mobile, college-educated Americans — who had long leaned Republican and provided a base of high-propensity voters to weather midterm storms — were suddenly up for grabs.

After bleeding support in these places in 2016, 2018 and 2020, Republicans won them back narrowly in 2024. But as we stand on the precipice of the next midterm elections, it’s very obvious that the suburbanites have again flown the coop. What’s increasingly looking like a grim November for the GOP is going to mostly play out in the land of the strip malls and subdivisions.

The new Republican coalition would have been unbeatable in the old Texas but is increasingly vulnerable in the new Texas of megalopian sprawl. It’s a shift my colleague Sean Trende has been describing and documenting for years , and we may have finally arrived at the moment the state really starts to tip over.

None of this is to say that Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico is sure to defeat Republican nominee Ken Paxton . When we look at the persistent, substantial gap between Paxton’s poor showing in the polls and that of other statewide Republican candidates — particularly Texas Gov. Greg Abbott — it’s obvious that we’re not at the demography-is-destiny phase of Democrats’ blue Texas ambitions. It still takes a candidate as bad as Paxton in a year for Democrats as good as this one to really put Texas in play.

But it is true that Talarico’s surprising durability in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988 wouldn’t be possible if it wasn’t for Texas’s astonishing demographic makeover. That itself should be a warning to the GOP about its future.

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Change from one week ago: ↑ 1 point (-25.4 points)

Change from one month ago: ↑ 6.4 points (-30.2 points)

[ Average includes: Reuters/Ipsos: 33 percent approve – 60 percent disapprove; American Research Group: 30 percent approve – 66 percent disapprove; Echelon Insights: 38 percent approve – 61 percent disapprove; Emerson College: 40 percent approve – 56 percent disapprove; Marquette Law School: 40 percent approve – 60 percent disapprove ]

Change from one week ago: ↓ 0.2 points (D +6.6 points)

Change from one month ago: ↑ 1.4 points(D +5 points)

[ Average includes: Reuters/Ipsos: 43 percent Democratic – 38 percent Republican; Echelon Insights: 50 percent Democratic – 44 percent Republican; Emerson College: 51 percent Democratic – 43 percent Republican; Marquette Law School: 51 percent Democratic – 45 percent Republican; Quinnipiac University: 48 percent Democratic – 41 percent Republican ]

ON THE SIDE: PULLING STRINGS WITH YO-YO MA

Reporter Joshua Barone went on the road to see how the world’s most famous cellist, now 70, is strung for The New York Times : “It isn’t easy to interview Yo-Yo Ma . Not because he is one of the most famous musicians alive, a cellist who has been playing for world leaders since he was 7. Nor because he tends to answer questions with long stories rather than sound bites. … He is a sincerely committed humanist in a time that more readily rewards cynicism. … When he speaks about immigration or education, he avoids the brash, polarizing rhetoric that reigns today, subtly treating these topics as matters of ethics rather than politics. ‘There’s nobody that’s not interesting,’ he said by way of explanation during a recent interview at his hotel while performing in Denver … I quickly learned what former President Barack Obama meant when he once said of Ma, ‘For every question you ask him, he asks you two in return.’”

PRIME CUTS: SENATE AD WARS AND A BALKY BALLOT BLOCKADE

Pro-Collins super PAC pushes transgender sports to the fore: Axios : “A super PAC working to reelect Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is plowing $1.1 million into an ad campaign attacking Democrat Troy Jackson for supporting state legislation that allows transgender women to be housed in women’s prisons. The ad is the latest example of Republicans using visceral attacks on transgender policies to draw sharp contrasts with Democrats on a hot-button cultural issue. But for the first time this cycle, Republicans are taking the transgender issue into a blue-state Senate race. The strategy behind the two-week blitz from Pine Tree Results is clear: drive Jackson’s negatives higher. ‘As Senate president, Jackson signed the bill requiring state prisons to house biological men if they identify as female with women prisoners,’ the narrator says.”

80-year-old progressive Ed Markey wins Massachusetts Senate primary: The Hill : “ Seth Moulton , a 47-year-old who’s served in the House for six terms, had lodged a generational change campaign against Ed Markey , an 80-year-old who served 20 terms in the House and is seeking a third term in the Senate. But Markey emerged victorious in Tuesday’s primary, teeing him up for another six years representing the solidly blue state in the upper chamber alongside fellow Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). He will face off against Republican John Deaton , who ran unopposed in the GOP primary, in November. … Former President Biden ’s exit from the 2024 race amid health concerns and the recent passing of multiple congressional Democrats in office have invigorated younger candidates who argue that older lawmakers are out-of-touch with the party. But unlike some high-profile contests that saw the younger challengers running to the left of the incumbents, Markey was seen by many as the more progressive in the race.”

Ponzi scheme scandal further dims Georgia GOP’s hopes: The Wall Street Journal : “ James McMaster , 94 years old, lost about $1.3 million in the collapse of First Liberty Building & Loan, the Georgia investment firm built by a family of Republican power brokers. He recently got a call to contribute to a GOP campaign. ‘I said, “OK, let me tell you. Here’s where I’m at,”‘ McMaster said. ‘When you get all the politicians that have received funds from them and get them to return them, then maybe we can talk.’ Nationally, Republicans face familiar midterm headwinds, from inflation to the war with Iran. Georgia’s GOP is contending with a problem notable to the Peach State: a $140-million Ponzi-scheme scandal that has ruptured the party’s ultraconservative wing. … Some Republicans worry the controversy will cloud voters’ view of a state GOP that has been troubled by infighting and turmoil since 2020. Rusty Paul , a former state GOP chair, said the Frosts’ abrupt exit from state Republican politics could be healthy for the party in the long run. ‘It removes a thorn from the body Republican,’ he said.”

El-Sayed tries ‘Love Island’ pitch to Michiganders: Yahoo News : “ Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed turned his campaign into a reality TV audition Tuesday, releasing a Love Island -inspired TikTok that promoted his progressive platform while poking fun at Republican attacks on his name and his supposed disdain for football. The slick video casts the 41-year-old as the latest cast member desperate for a turn on ‘Senate Island,’ borrowing the high-energy sun-soaked format of the hit dating show’s contestant introductions to make his pitch to Michigan voters. … With pop singer Raye’s hit ‘Where the Hell is My Husband!’ playing in the background, El-Sayed appears against flashing pink and yellow backdrops surrounded by beach balls and inflatables. ‘I’m Abdul El-Sayed. I’m 41 years old, and I’m from Ann Arbor, Michigan,’ he begins, before addressing a line of attack Republicans have increasingly aimed at him. ‘Oh, my name. Yeah, I love my name,’ El-Sayed says. ‘My people don’t know this. It means ‘servant leader.’ Right here on my bracelet.’”

New TV ads from Paxton make Talarico out to be a Chinese sympathizer: Politico : “Allies of Texas GOP Senate hopeful Ken Paxton are planning a $15 million ad campaign starting Tuesday, the first major ad buy on behalf of Paxton in his battleground matchup with Democrat James Talarico . Two new ads from Lone Star Liberty PAC, the pro-Paxton super PAC, will air across 18 markets across Texas over the ensuing two weeks. They mark Paxton’s first significant foray on to the airwaves, jolting a campaign that has been clouded by concerns over Talarico’s massive cash advantage and Paxton’s electability. … The other new advertisement accuses Talarico of aiding China’s growth at the expense of Texas residents, pointing to the Democrat’s vote against restrictions on Chinese investments, and argues that a Chinese billionaire’s ownership of land near Laughlin Air Force Base presents national security concerns. ‘China’s got Talarico. Texas needs Ken Paxton,’ the ad says.”

Talarico cries foul over closure of polling locations: The Associated Press : “A plan in one of Texas’ largest counties to use dozens fewer polling locations than in previous years is drawing protests from Democrats who say the reductions could create confusion in the November midterm elections. The proposal, set for a vote Tuesday, would reduce the number of polling locations across booming Tarrant County, which borders Dallas and includes Fort Worth. County officials say the plan would save resources by eliminating low-turnout sites, noting voters would still have more than 200 locations where they could cast ballots. Texas’ third-largest county is home to more than 2 million people and a key battleground in the U.S. Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton . On Sunday, Talarico urged the county to reject the proposal. ‘The most powerful people in this county, the most powerful people in this country, don’t want us to be able vote easily,’ Talarico said at a news conference.”

USPS quickly rolls out ballot crackdown plan: The New York Times : “The U.S. Postal Service has been swiftly developing a complex screening system for mail-in ballots ahead of this year’s midterm elections, despite ongoing legal wranglings over President Trump ’s executive order to restrict voting by mail. The new system, which requires states to tell the Postal Service which voters will be sent ballots so they can be verified before delivery, shows how aggressively the Postal Service is moving to deliver on the president’s directive ahead of the upcoming elections, which could tip the scales of power in Congress. The agency’s efforts to set up a way to restrict who gets mail ballots, even as the matter is being fought over in the courts, could cause confusion among voters and undermine confidence in the Postal Service as states are close to getting ballots out the door, current and former state officials said. If the new screening system is ultimately put in place, it could jeopardize the ability of people to receive and cast their ballots, they said.”

Whistleblower says Trump ballot blockade may crash system : The Hill: “A whistleblower on Monday warned that the U.S. Postal Service’s computer system is riddled with errors and could jeopardize mail-in voting in the November midterm elections, according to a statement from Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). The individual said the Postal Service has attempted to build a complex system over a three-month time frame, beginning on or around June 15, to be used for the midterms, a process that typically takes a year or longer. The work was expected to stop amid a federal judge’s ruling that temporarily halted President Trump ’s executive order to limit voting by mail, a ruling that the Trump administration has appealed. … The order introduces a portal for the Postal Service to screen ballots submitted by state election officials. The whistleblower said standard and needed testing had been eliminated and that it created ‘the substantial risk of a ‘catastrophic failure’ of the system that could ‘derail the midterm elections,’ Blumenthal said, quoting the whistleblower.”

House Republicans staying away from next week’s GOP convention — Politico

$88,600 for a photo with Trump? Sky-high prices make convention a tough sell — The Wall Street Journal

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) looks to Elon Musk for a midterm bailout — Politico

Ipsos poll: 14 percent support renaming Lake Ontario, 20 percent back tariffs on Canada — Reuters

Vice President Vance , El-Sayed escalate war of words — Mediaite

Ted Cruz (R-Texas) takes jabs at Vance with 2028 on the horizon — The Wall Street Journal

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) endorses DSA Senate candidate Angie Nixon in Florida — The Hill

Highest ever majority of Americans say government corruption is widespread — Gallup

“Do I think we are in the end times? I don’t know. … I think there are things about the world that would make me not shocked if the Antichrist was walking among us. But, again, I try not to focus too much on it.” — Vice President Vance in an interview with a Christian podcaster.

“I’m not going to bring up the fact that the mother of his two children is his second cousin… It’s not something that I’m going to be emphasizing.” — Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) talking to Politico about her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson “I’m gonna grab a couple of drinks and, the next morning, get up and work out, drink and go gamble and come home and take a nap for a day or two. Life goes on.” — Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) talking to The New York Times on what he’ll do if he loses Tuesday’s primary, his long-shot Senate bid in New Hampshire

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WTWO : “Hoosiers have been hearing about a lioness and her cub being loose in the Madison County and Hancock County [Indiana] areas. But today we are hearing that those lions were pigs. … ‘The Madison County Sheriff’s Office contacted us for our expertise and assistance. Their heat sensing drones had picked up large animals,’ said Rebecca Rizzo , head keeper at the Exotic Feline Rescue Center in Center Point. … ‘I had called back and was told they had located the animals and it was pigs. They had confirmed that there were pigs in the area,’ said Rizzo. Madison County Sheriff John Beeman spoke with WTWO concerning the report of lions in his county. ‘We had received a call yesterday (8/27) at 10 a.m. by a credible witness that said he had seen the lions,’ said Sheriff Beeman. Beeman and his team immediately began a search for the animals. … They checked the area with Indiana State Police drones and found ‘hogs along a tree line.’”