5 things to watch for in Thursday’s Michigan debate showdown

Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed will face off Thursday night in their first debate of a contest that will help decide whether Democrats or Republicans hold the Senate majority next year.

El-Sayed enjoys a 4.1 percent lead in the Decision Desk HQ polling average heading into the debate. The Cook Political Report lists the race as a toss-up; it’s the only Democratic-held Senate seat rated as a toss-up by the nonpartisan handicapper at this stage.

A Rogers win would make it tougher, though not impossible, for Democrats to take away the Senate majority from Republicans. Democrats must net a total of four seats to win the majority.

El-Sayed won a tough Democratic primary and has been seen as vulnerable by the GOP, but Rogers is facing a difficult election climate for Republicans and has begun to seek distance from the Trump White House on the Iran war and the trade fight with Canada .

WOOD TV8, a Grand Rapids news station owned by The Hill’s parent company, Nexstar Media, will host the debate. The event will air live at 7 p.m. EDT, and each candidate will have a minute to respond to questions and 30 seconds for follow-ups, rebuttals and closing statements.

NewsNation will simulcast the debate, to be moderated by WOOD-TV political reporter Rick Albin and anchor Amber Krycka. NewsNation’s Chief Washington anchor, Leland Vittert, will host the simulcast, while NewsNation and The Hill Politics Editor Chris Stirewalt will provide analysis and a review of the debate at 8 p.m. on CUOMO.

Will either candidate try to appeal to Black voters ?

Black voters are typically a Democratic constituency, but there are reasons to think they could be a vulnerability for El-Sayed.

Black voters largely backed Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) in the primary fight. The Hill reported in August that she led El-Sayed by 8 percentage points in districts where more than 15 percent of the population is Black.

Polling in July showed that just 21 percent of Black voters backed El-Sayed while 67 percent supported the House Democrat.

Young voters in general back El-Sayed in polls, but young Black voters who back El-Sayed worry that older Black voters either won’t show up or could vote for Rogers.

During an appearance on NewsNation’s “On Balance” this week, political commentator Adolph Mongo noted that El-Sayed in 2024 encouraged the Arab American community in Michigan to not back former President Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris over the Biden administration’s policies toward Israel, arguing Black voters in the state remember that.

El-Sayed has captured support from some voters who feel they have been forgotten by the political class.

In some ways, it is similar to what President Trump was able to do with the electorate. And Trump has been successful in Michigan, winning the state in 2016 and 2024, while losing it to Biden in the 2020 election.

But Rogers is also running against Trump’s low approval ratings, which have been a drag on GOP candidates in Michigan and in other states.

Can Rogers communicate to poor, mostly educated white voters in Michigan that he understands their pain and is willing to do something about it, and not just defend Trump’s record?

Will El-Sayed seek to assuage voters on Israel and Gaza ?

In an interview Tuesday, El-Sayed called my question about whether Israel or Iran was a bigger danger to America a dumb question.

“I’ve been more than extremely clear on this, I don’t want our tax dollars being used to subsidize war abroad. I don’t want our tax dollars being used to fund unconditionally foreign militaries,” El-Sayed began, before adding that the U.S. should be the “first among equals to enforce international law against any and every country that breaks it.”

“So this sort of, like, hypothetical about who’s a bigger threat is a dumb question, I’m sorry,” El-Sayed said.

The Israel-Hamas war was major issue in the Democratic primary, and El-Sayed’s voice of support for Gaza ending up being the one popular with primary voters.

But there are plenty of voters in the general election who have been worried about some of his comments, and El-Sayed has sought to shift — most notably by apologizing for comments he made following an attack on a Detroit-area synagogue earlier this year.

“I made a mistake,” El-Sayed said during an appearance before the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus at the state party’s convention in August. “I should have issued a statement, of course condemning it, and it just should have been the full stop.”

Will Rogers seek to go on the attack on these issues tonight? And will El-Sayed try to do more to assuage any fears independent or conservative Democratic voters may have of him?

El-Sayed is a generational talent as a communicator, while Rogers in most cable news hits has seemed out of practice.

El-Sayed is definitely going to go after Rogers and prosecute his case. Can Rogers do the same without looking practiced, awkward and consultant-driven?

There will be a third person on the debate stage. His name is Donald Trump.

El-Sayed keeps daring Trump to come to Michigan. When I asked him why he thinks that will be helpful, the Democratic nominee said: “Why do I think that’s going to help me? People hate Donald Trump,” before laughing .

“He wants everyone to know that he’s on the ballot. I want everyone to know that he’s on the ballot, too. Mike Rogers is a vote for Donald Trump. I want him to come and say it for himself. I think he’s too afraid,” El-Sayed said, before arguing that the Rogers campaign likely doesn’t want Trump to come to Michigan.

How does Rogers deal with Trump? Does he get asked, and how does he respond about a Trump visit. And can he make himself his own man?

Also, does El-Sayed look silly trying to run against someone who is not there?