Talarico, Paxton in dead heat for Texas Senate, Abbott leads governor’s race: Poll

Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are in a dead heat for the Senate in Texas, according to new polling of one of the cycle’s most closely watched contests.

Talarico notched 48 percent to Paxton’s 46 percent in new numbers from Emerson College Polling and The Hill, a result within the poll’s margin of error. Another 5 percent were undecided, and 1 percent picked Libertarian Ted Brown.

When undecided voters were asked which candidate they lean toward, Talarico’s support jumped to 49 percent, Paxton to 48 percent and Brown to 3 percent.

“Since August, Talarico’s support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Brown’s Libertarian bid could also change the game .

“If the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3% on the final ballot, sees his support melt between now and Election Day, Paxton likely sees his vote share increase as these third-party voters are independents or Republicans, but if it holds, Talarico benefits,” Kimball said.

Talarico and Paxton are locked in a tough race that’s drawn huge fundraising numbers and national attention in the tussle for Senate control. Republicans have long dominated the Lone Star State, but Paxton’s controversy-laden campaign and Talarico’s grassroots energy have given Democrats hope of their first flip in decades.

Talarico raised a staggering $64 million in the third quarter of the year, compared to Paxton’s $18 million . But tech mogul Elon Musk poured $158 million into a super PAC backing Paxton, according to filings last week, as Republicans try to keep the seat.

Meanwhile, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) boasted a slight lead in the Emerson polling of the gubernatorial race as he tries for a fourth term.

Abbott scored 49 percent to Democrat Gina Hinojosa’s 45 percent, while Libertarian Pat Dixon snagged 1 percent and another 4 percent were undecided.

When undecided voters were forced to a choice, Abbott jumped to 51 percent, Hinojosa to 47 percent and Dixon to 2 percent.

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) rates the Texas Senate a toss-up, with Talarico narrowly favored. The governor’s race has a “lean Republican” rating, a step short of being a toss-up.

The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted Oct. 17-19 among 1,000 likely Texas voters and has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3.1 percent.