Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Alaska Senate race to ‘leans Democrat’

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper based at the University of Virginia, has shifted its race rating for the Alaska Senate race to be more optimistic for Democrats.

The outlet moved the race to “Leans Democrat” from “Toss-up,” showing that polling data and other indicators are increasingly suggesting former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) could topple incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska).

“Sullivan, as an incumbent without any obvious scandals, still has some advantages, aside from the state’s red terrain,” wrote J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik in a press release announcing the shift. They mentioned the state’s over-45 population, which is still predominately swinging for Sullivan.

“But our general sense for months has been that Alaska, a small, quirky state with a unique election system, was perhaps the most promising red state Senate target for Democrats.”

Despite the rating change, the race is still very competitive. Alaska is generally a red state, national Republicans are still spending plenty of money to attack Peltola’s record, and Trump surrogates, most notably Vice President JD Vance, are stumping for Sullivan there .

Decision Desk HQ, another election handicapper, also has Peltola slightly favored to win. The other big name in election ratings, Cook Political Report , still has the race as a toss-up.

Peltola is a unique candidate as a centrist Democrat, Alaska Native and former congresswoman who was already elected statewide twice. She’s running on a campaign slogan of “fish, family and freedom,” vowing to fight corporate interests and solve Alaska’s resource problems. Sullivan has emphasized his service in the Senate passing legislation that benefited industries and veterans, among other groups, in Alaska.

Democrats need to net four Senate seats to take the majority in the midterm elections. North Carolina appears to be their best chance of winning a seat, but races in seats held by Republicans in Maine, Ohio, Texas and Iowa are also seen as toss-ups by Cook.

Democrats are defending seats in two other races listed by Cook as toss-ups in Michigan and New Hampshire.

Republicans are favored to hold a Senate seat in Kansas, though the race in that state is increasingly seen as competitive. Democrats are favored in races in Minnesota and Georgia, though both are seen as competitive.