Trump, Vance blitz Ohio as Democrats look to flip governor’s mansion

The red-leaning Buckeye State governor’s mansion could flip for the first time in two decades as Democrat Amy Acton narrowly leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in recent polls of their bitter midterm battle.

A new CNN poll Thursday showed Acton up 8 percentage points over Ramaswamy, after a New York Times/Siena poll found Acton ahead by 4 points last week. Decision Desk HQ’s polling averages now show Acton up roughly 4 points, rating the race a toss-up.

The wide-open race to succeed outgoing Gov. Mike DeWine (R) comes against the backdrop of a highly competitive Senate race and a handful of battleground House contests, putting Republicans on defense in races they’ve easily won in recent years.

Ohio is the latest red stronghold in the spotlight of President Trump’s cross-country campaign blitz as he seeks to energize base voters. After Trump rallied outside Dayton for Ramaswamy last weekend, Vice President Vance stopped in Lima on Friday and Trump is headed to Youngstown on Monday to campaign for Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio).

“I think Republicans are clearly very concerned about Ohio,” said Justin Buchler, an associate professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland.

“There are a set of races that they probably expected to be safer, and they are seeing a few of those races, if not slip away, then certainly look more precarious for them, and you can see that by where Trump and Vance are going.”

Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur who ran for president in 2024, boasts prime endorsements from DeWine, Vance and Trump in his bid for a governor’s mansion that Republicans have held since 2010.

He was a controversial candidate but effusive ally of Trump even as they fought for the GOP’s White House nod last cycle and was later tapped to help lead Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) crackdown on federal spending alongside tech mogul Elon Musk. And with a net worth estimated at $2.3 billion, Ramaswamy has been able to partially self-fund his midterm bid at home in Ohio.

But Republicans across the country face significant midterm headwinds — from Trump’s sunken approval ratings to the historic trend of the ruling party losing out between presidential cycles — and Ramaswamy faces tough competition in Acton.

A physician and former director of the Ohio Department of Health, Acton worked with DeWine and other Republican leaders as she led the state’s response to the pandemic. Supporters have touted her bipartisan work along the campaign trail, arguing Acton “ will work with anyone .” Like Ramaswamy, she has not held elected office before.

“The governor’s race is very unusual because we have unusual candidates for each party … neither of them are really conventional candidates,” Buchler said.

And with less than a month to go until Election Day, the rivals have been ramping up their attacks.

Acton’s campaign has painted Ramaswamy as an out-of-touch billionaire, while Republican groups have accused Acton of being an alcoholic and drug addict — claims she’s decried as “horrible.” There is currently no scheduled debate between the two candidates.

Meanwhile, the Senate race between Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is also considered a critical toss-up in the fight for control of the upper chamber.

Brown led by 6 points in the CNN polling and by 4 points in The New York Times results, while Husted led by 1 point in a co/efficient survey.

Acton’s campaign manager, Philip Stein, said the numbers are a signal that “Ohioans are ready for a change.”

But Republicans in the state are shaking off the polls and pointing to their past winning streak.

“It’s a Republican state and more red in midterm elections, and that serves Vivek Ramaswamy and John Husted and the Republicans up and down the ticket well,” said Ohio GOP consultant Matt Dole.

“It’s certainly closer — you know, our governor won by 27 points or something like that four years ago — it’s not that type of environment, and certainly the national environment is challenging,” Dole said. “But I think the fundamentals still, despite what the polls say, are advantageous for Republicans.”

Others say a red win is more uncertain as Trump’s approval declines among voters in Ohio, a state where Republicans easily outnumber Democrats.

Robert Alexander, a political science professor at Bowling Green State University in Ohio, said that the tight polls, the ad blitz and “multiple visits from Trump and Vance” signal that “those polls probably aren’t too far off, and that they also expect a very close race.”

Trump “is not what he was certainly two years ago,” Alexander said, which might mean a “backlash effect” from disaffected Republicans or independents frustrated by the status quo.

“The Democrat brand is not as strong in the state as the Republican brand … but the headwinds against Republicans right now are pretty strong.”

After casting his own early ballot Friday in Ohio, Vance urged the crowd in Lima to vote for both Husted and Ramaswamy — saying Republicans “need” Ramaswamy to win “because he is running against a crazy person.” The vice president was notably a senator for Ohio for just two years before he was tapped to join Trump’s presidential ticket.

In Vandalia, Ohio, last weekend, Trump urged supporters to turn out and vote red no matter what.

“Go out and vote. Even if you hate Jon Husted, even if you hate Vivek Ramaswamy, you’re gonna go out, you’re gonna vote, and then you’re gonna pull their triggers,” Trump said.

Amid Trump’s poor approval rating, Ohio Democratic strategist Jeff Rusnak suggested the president’s trip could backfire.

“I think what he’s doing is firing up Democrats and Independents who are really turned off by him and even some of those Republicans who have had enough,” Rusnak said, arguing Trump is “in for a rude awakening” when he talks to voters in the Mahoning Valley on Monday.

But observers on all sides of the aisle agree the Senate and gubernatorial races will come down to turnout, as evidenced by Trump’s call to Ohioans with early and absentee voting already underway .

“Preferences, I think, are leaning toward Democrats in the state this year, but those preferences don’t translate to votes,” Alexander said.

He described a “nightmare scenario” for Republicans in which some voters don’t want Acton or Brown on the Democratic side — but still aren’t “excited” enough about Ramaswamy or Husted in the GOP column.

“It’s cliche to say it all depends on turnout, but that’s the reality, and I think that’s exactly why you’re seeing Trump and Vance come to the state.”