Trump’s onslaught tests Talarico’s momentum in Texas

▪ Backlash to Trump’s California comment

▪ Cornell faculty raise no-confidence vote

President Trump is returning to Texas today for the third time in less than a month, as Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico maintains his edge in the race despite an onslaught of GOP spending, including from Trump’s own war chest.

Trump will rally at 7 p.m. EDT in San Antonio for Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton (R) and congressional candidate Carlos De La Cruz (R), who is running in the newly redrawn 35th Congressional District.

Trump carried the state by 14 points in 2024, his biggest margin in Texas across his three presidential runs, but his return to the Lone Star State — less than a week after visiting a truck manufacturing plant in Denton, Texas — underscores the GOP’s vulnerability heading into the midterm elections.

San Antonio is home to two of the most competitive districts in the state: the 35th Congressional District and the 23rd Congressional District, which former moderate GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales represented before resigning earlier this year. In both districts, according to The Texas Tribune , most eligible voters are Hispanic.

Trump’s 2024 gains in Texas were largely driven by an uptick in support from Hispanic voters. But early October polling from The New York Times/Siena University shows Hispanic voters now favoring Talarico 62 percent to 30 percent over Paxton. That 32-point advantage is larger than Talarico’s 16-point lead among women, and close to his 36-point lead among adults under 30.

Overall, among all likely voters surveyed, Talarico now leads Paxton by 6 points, 51 percent to 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided. In the June Times/Siena poll, the candidates were tied at 47 percent.

The recent poll comes as Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ ), The Hill’s partner, gives Talarico a 56 percent chance of winning the seat, a forecast that has remained relatively stable for more than a month. The candidates’ chances both hovered around 50 percent throughout the month of August.

Democrats are wary of getting their hopes up again in a state that has only gotten redder since Beto O’Rourke came within striking distance of a Senate win in 2018. To defeat Paxton, Talarico would need strong Democratic turnout, majority support from independent voters and even some crossover votes from Republicans.

But Talarico’s polling numbers are stronger than O’Rourke’s ever were in another midterm election year two years after Trump took office. Democrats last won a Senate seat in Texas in 1988 and have not won a statewide race since 1994.

Along with Trump’s three trips to Texas and the GOP’s decision to hold its midterm convention in the state, the onslaught of GOP spending in the race is another clear sign the party is taking Talarico’s challenge seriously.

According to AdImpact, Republicans have now spent more on ads in the Texas Senate race than on any other non-presidential race on record. A total of $442 million has been spent on the race, including a record $326 million from Republicans and $116 million from Democrats.

Only the 2024 Ohio Senate race was more expensive, according to AdImpact, with a total of $543 million spent. But that race was more evenly divided between parties, with Republicans spending $296 million and Democrats spending $247 million.

Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., and its affiliates have spent at least $25 million boosting Paxton, according to campaign finance reports available this weekend. Those numbers do not take into account future reservations. Texas PAC, affiliated with the Senate GOP leadership, has contributed another $130 million to the race.

National Democrats are starting to invest in Texas , but on a much smaller scale. DDHQ’s chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley told Morning Report he’ll be watching whether the funding gap starts to show up in polls.

“As you see over the last month of this race this huge amount of money being spent in that race — and disproportionately it looks like it’s going to be Republican money — does that bring his numbers down, raise Paxton’s numbers a bit?” he said.

▪ The Hill : Trump heads to Texas as GOP worries mount over Paxton

▪ The Hill : Thom Tillis : ‘Almost statistically impossible’ for GOP to win House.

Trump announced a new partnership Tuesday to try to speed up the manufacturing of nuclear-powered submarines. The announcement came with the backdrop of wars around the world, which have heavily involved cheaper drones. I asked former Army Secretary Eric Fanning , who’s currently president and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association, if we should be focusing more of our spending on drones.

“It’s not either-or. We get this question a lot. We debate this a lot. It’s both,” Fanning told me. “We do need more drones. There is a lot of investment taking place in drones, a lot of private sector companies investing in drones. It’s a great place for competition because of the cost point,” he added.

I asked that question because nearly every guest who’s discussed our military arsenal on the show over the past year has noted the cheap cost of drones and how we need to build those up to catch up with other nations. Still, our extensive nuclear triad is partly what sets us apart from the other militaries worldwide.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6 p.m. EDT/5 p.m. CDT on NewsNation.

Christa Pike is conscious and speaking days after she was given two doses of the lethal injection drug pentobarbital during a botched execution in Tennessee. She had been incapacitated and on a ventilator in the aftermath of the execution as medical practitioners worked to save her life. The state has suspended executions for the rest of the year while it investigates what went wrong.

Paramount Skydance officially closed its multibillion-dollar deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery on Tuesday after a settlement was reached in a lawsuit from a dozen state attorneys general who challenged its legality. The merger will create the largest provider of news, sports and entertainment offerings in the world, to be known as Skydance.

Trump said repairs to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool are close to complete , and it should be refilled “this week.” He reiterated unfounded claims of vandalism causing setbacks in the pool’s repairs, allegations that have been rejected in court and contradicted by administration officials.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite/Robert F. Bukaty)

CLASH OF THE CANDIDATES : Candidates in several key midterm races sparred Tuesday evening in at-times heated debates as Election Day creeps closer.

In perhaps the most high-profile faceoff, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), one of Democrats’ top targets in the Senate this year, butted heads with former state Senate President Troy Jackson .

Collins sought to distance herself from the president as she seeks reelection in the blue-leaning state. She emphasized her position supporting abortion rights and her vote against Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year. Jackson pressed her on her crucial vote to advance the bill out of committee and her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh , who ultimately cast a deciding vote to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Collins said she looks to determine whether judicial nominees are “fit to serve” and sought to turn the tables on Jackson for his past more conservative stance on abortion earlier in his career.

In Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) faced Rep. John James (R-Mich.) on stage for a gubernatorial debate.

Like Collins, James appeared eager to note clear differences with the president during the debate, which was hosted by Nexstar’s WOOD-TV. Nexstar also owns The Hill.

James said Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, but the war should have ended “yesterday.” Benson blasted him for voting six times against a war powers resolution calling on Trump to end hostilities.

James also called on U.S. and Canadian officials to return to the negotiating table amid the trade war and “stop acting like children.” He and Benson both expressed support for suspending the federal gas tax over high fuel costs at the pump.

Tensions were also on display at the Iowa gubernatorial debate between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn , with accusations of carpetbagging and attacks over family wealth and culture war issues flying.

The candidates will participate in three more debates before Election Day, as Democrats try to win the Iowa governor’s mansion for the first time in two decades.

▪ The Hill : Sparks fly in first Iowa governor’s debate.

▪ The Hill : Planned Parenthood Votes adds $1 million to Maine, Michigan ads.

INFORMATION PLEASE : Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Russia to provide more information Tuesday about the suspected pneumonic plague outbreak following the death of a lab worker in Siberia.

Rubio told reporters during a trip to Iceland that Russia should show transparency with the rest of the world so countries can react “appropriately and accordingly.” The State Department reiterated its warning for Americans to not travel to Russia over the suspected outbreak.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said Monday that there are no further signs of infection at the Irkutsk Research Anti-Plague Institute of Siberia, where the outbreak allegedly occurred.

WHO told NewsNation that all of the deceased worker’s contacts have reportedly been identified and are being monitored for illness and that none have shown symptoms.

The agency said the current risk to the general population appears to be low, but the assessment will be updated once more information is available.

▪ The Hill : Five things to know as plague sparks COVID-19 memories.

▪ The Associated Press : How Russia, the world are responding.

RIVALRY RESUMES : California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) returned to his role as a chief antagonist to the president Tuesday following Trump’s remark that Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego if the regime develops a nuclear weapon.

Trump made the comments while defending the Iran war at a rally he held in Nebraska on Monday.

“It’s a small price to pay for keeping the world safe, for keeping our country safe,” Trump said of high gas prices during the war, adding that Iran could “take out a city.”

“Let ‘em take out Los Angeles, let ‘em take out San Diego,” he said. “This is a very small price to pay, and it’s going to be over with very soon.”

Newsom slammed Trump as “deranged and dangerous” for the remark. He told The Hill’s Amie Parnes and Julia Manchester that the 25th Amendment should be invoked against the president.

The White House has disputed the interpretation of Trump’s comments, with communications director Steven Cheung saying the “media freakout” isn’t “rooted in reality.”

“He was clearly stating U.S. cities would have been threatened if a nuclear Iran hadn’t been stopped. America is safer because of the President,” Cheung said on the social platform X.

▪ Reuters : Californians blast Trump remark.

▪ The Guardian : Republican congressional candidate rebukes Trump.

NO-CONFIDENCE : Cornell University’s faculty senate has cued up a vote of no confidence against the university’s administration amid backlash to its handling of an alleged gang rape of a student in 2024.

The faculty members will review the resolution next Wednesday, Oct. 14. It was led by Paul Ortiz , a professor of labor history at Cornell.

“As you may suspect, we were approached in our capacity as faculty senators by numerous Cornell colleagues demanding action. Many of these faculty–including myself–were approached by students at Cornell who are upset, fearful for their personal safety, and wanting our university to address the perennial problem of sexual assault on the campus,” the statement reads.

Cornell’s administration has faced intense scrutiny from politicians and the public for its oversight of the alleged gang rape that a female student reported took place at the Chi Phi fraternity house two years ago. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has appointed state Attorney General Letitia James (D) as a special prosecutor to look into the case.

Cornell also tapped former U.S. Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates to lead an independent review of how the institution responds to sexual harassment and assault on campus.

▪ ABC News : Police received tip about fraternity trying to keep rape under wraps.

The president will make an announcement at 1 p.m. He will travel to San Antonio to deliver remarks at 7 p.m. EDT and then return to the White House.

Gen. Francis Donovan, commander of U.S. Southern Command, speaks during a forum of the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition in Panama City, Aug. 12, 2026. (Matias Delacroix, Associated Press)

STEPPING UP : The Pentagon is expanding its multifront war against drug cartels in South America, embedding U.S. special forces on the ground in raids against traffickers among other moves, The Hill’s Filip Timotija reports .

“You dismantle the networks, attack network logistics, prevent adversary regeneration, bolster sovereignty and security and build a coalition,” a senior U.S. official told him. “So that’s the basis of a five-year plan.”

The Trump administration has been increasing pressure on the cartels since the president returned to office at the start of last year. The military has been blowing up alleged drug boats — and often those on board — in the Caribbean and East Pacific and interdicting refueling vessels off the coast of Ecuador before destroying them.

The administration has sought to improve its cooperation with countries in the Americas, creating a 19-member Americas Counter Cartel Coalition to oppose transnational organized crime.

That’s led to a partnership with Ecuador in which U.S. special forces have taken part in raids by Ecuadoran police on alleged drug traffickers.

The senior official said the U.S. will help train partner forces to aid in “command and control” operations on the ground.

Experts told Timotija that operations could soon be happening inside Colombia.

The U.S. Southern Command head, Marine four-star Gen. Francis Donovan , met with Colombian Defense Minister Jorge Eduardo Mora in August in Tumaco, a port city located in the southwest corner of Colombia. That’s an area experts said is more likely to be targeted than near Colombia’s border with Venezuela.

▪ The Hill : Pete Hegseth to welcome USS Abraham Lincoln in San Diego.

▪ The Hill : US tries new Sudan strategy amid war fueled by ‘external actors.’

Israeli flags decorate rooms of Israelis who evacuated from cities and towns along the border with Lebanon, in kibbutz Ginosar hotel, northern Israel, March 5, 2024. (Ariel Schalit, Associated Press file)

SOLEMN ANNIVERSARY : Today marks three years since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel that claimed 1,200 lives and plunged the region into turmoil that continues to this day, even after a ceasefire went into effect last year.

Israel has already begun its ceremonies commemorating the day, as Oct. 5 of this year marked the anniversary on the Hebrew calendar. Two state ceremonies were held Monday at Mount Herzl, Israel’s national cemetery, while dozens of other memorial events were held throughout the country, The Jerusalem Post reported .

The October Council, a nonprofit founded by many of the family members of Oct. 7 victims and hostages, planned a moment of silence for 6:29 a.m. local time, when the initial attack began. Events are also taking place put on by the families of those killed at the Nova music festival.

The peace deal went into effect almost exactly a year ago following negotiations between Israel and Hamas, with the U.S., Turkey, Qatar and Egypt acting as mediators. Both sides have violated terms of the ceasefire since then, raising questions about the future of the deal in which Hamas is to disarm and eventually cede power.

The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry has reported more than 74,000 Palestinians have died during the war, as of late last month. Strikes have occasionally continued even after the ceasefire went into effect, causing the death toll to tick up.

The anniversary also comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to face Israeli voters later this month for the first time since the attack and the war began. Netanyahu has faced intense backlash from critics for the security failures that allowed Hamas to carry out the deadliest attack in Israel’s history.

One recent poll found most Israelis view the Oct. 7 attack as central to their choice in the upcoming legislative elections.

Polls have shown a close race between the bloc led by Netanyahu and the opposition, with the possibility remaining that both sides could fail to win a majority of the 120-seat Knesset.

▪ The Times of Israel : Gadi Eisenkot challenges Netanyahu to televised debate.

▪ NPR : Israelis grapple with reports Netanyahu was warned ahead of Oct. 7.

Iran is losing — that’s why we should expect and prepare for more terrorist attacks , former national security adviser John Bolton writes in The Hill.

There’s another cockpit Israelis need to rush , Bret Stephens writes in The New York Times.

Emmy statues are seen at the 70th Primetime Emmy Nominations Announcements at the Television Academy’s Saban Media Center July 12, 2018, in Los Angeles. (Chris Pizzello, Invision, Associated Press file)

And finally … Another awards show is set to leave television for a streaming service, and this time with a dose of irony. The Television Academy announced Tuesday that the Emmys will be leaving broadcast networks for Amazon Prime .

The academy and Amazon announced it has reached a six-year deal to make the streaming platform the exclusive home for the Emmys, which are awarded annually for achievement in TV. The switch will start with next year’s ceremony, airing live.

A release states that the ceremony will remain free for viewers worldwide, forgoing Amazon’s paywall.

The Emmys are the second of the major awards that make up an EGOT to switch to streaming. The Academy Awards, also known as the Oscars, are scheduled to stream on YouTube starting in 2029 after ABC airs the 2027 and 2028 shows.