The 10 races that will decide House control

The battle for the House majority will come down to a handful of battleground districts.

Republicans are playing defense as they seek to defend their 218-214 majority while facing tough political headwinds. All 435 House seats are up for grabs.

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), The Hill’s election partner, rates 13 House contests as “toss ups.” As of Friday, Democrats have an 82 percent chance of flipping the House.

Here are 10 of those key contests that will decide who wins control of the lower chamber:

Ohio’s 7th District has long been held by the GOP, but scandal-plagued Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) has put that streak in jeopardy.

Domestic abuse allegations against Miller from his ex-wife have rocked the race in northern Ohio. Emily Moreno, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno (R), accused the House Republican of physical and emotional abuse, which Miller has denied .

He has faced calls to step aside from some Republicans — including Bernie Moreno .

Democrat Bryan Poindexter, a union iron worker and Brook Park City Council member, has run an aggressive campaign against Miller focused on economic issues and corruption, as well as his opponent’s abuse scandal.

Poindexter is narrowly favored to win and flip the seat for Democrats, DDHQ forecasts.

Rep. Ashley Hinson’s (R) open House seat in Iowa has become an unexpected battleground.

Favorable conditions for Democrats have made the seat, which Hinson won by more than 15 percentage points two years ago, increasingly competitive. DDHQ forecasts Democrat Lindsay James, a state lawmaker, the slight favorite to win the seat.

The Democrat has sought to tie her opponent, Joe Mitchell, to President Trump while also hammering the Republican over his residency . James has accused Mitchell of moving to the 2nd District to run for the open seat.

Mitchell, who is backed by the president, has campaigned on his opposition to special interests. He has called his opponent a radical leftist and criticized her over missing votes in the state Legislature.

A Democratic Tejano singer-songwriter may unseat a sitting member of Congress in a district Trump won by 18 points in 2024.

Bobby Pulido is challenging Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) for a seat she won by 14 points last cycle. The district, which runs through southern Texas, will serve as a key test of Latino voters’ appetite for Republicans this cycle. Trump made key gains with the bloc in 2024.

While GOP-led redistricting last year shifted the boundaries of De La Cruz’s district, she was seen as the favorite as the 2026 election cycle commenced. The incumbent still holds a slight upper hand, according to DDHQ.

Pulido has panned De La Cruz over her ties to Trump while the Republican has painted the singer as an out-of-touch celebrity. Both candidates have highlighted agriculture, border security and affordability issues as centerpieces of their campaigns.

The retirement of Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) put this classic swing district that has voted red in recent statewide elections back in play for the GOP.

DDHQ gives former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) a slight edge in the contest.

The Republican is facing off against Democratic State Auditor Matt Dunlap in a tight contest that the GOP is looking to clinch. Cook Political Report shifted the race from “likely” to “leans” Republican in early October after a number of polls were released showing Dunlap in the lead.

Dunlap has zeroed in on the war in Iran and its effects on Mainers pocketbooks on the trail, while LePage has sought to paint his Democratic opponent as a radical.

This San Antonio-area district was redrawn to favor the GOP, but with the tides shifting among Latinos, that redistricting effort may not pay off.

Democratic Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia is running against Republican Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz for a seat held by Rep. Greg Casar (D), who is running in Texas’s 37th District under the new map. The Republican is slightly favored to win, DDHQ forecasts.

Cook Political Report moved the race from “leans Republican” to “toss up” in late October amid heavy super PAC spending from both parties. More than half of eligible voters in the district are Latinos, setting up another test of the GOP’s hold on the bloc.

Garcia describes himself as an “old school Democrat” running on lowering costs and ensuring public safety. Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Monica De La Cruz, is running on securing the border, fighting corruption, defeating the “woke left” and protecting farmers.

The district has seen a number of high-profile Republicans stump for Carlos De La Cruz. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has called the race the “ whole enchilada, ” and President Trump rallied with Carlos De La Cruz in San Antonio.

Both candidates have broken with their parties on the trail — Carlos De La Cruz called Trump’s tariffs “too broad,” and Garcia hit former President Biden over his handling of the southern border.

South Florida’s open 22nd District is home to a competitive race for a seat that Trump won by 10 points in 2024 but lost by 3 in 2020.

Democrat Pia Dandiya is facing Republican Casey Askar to represent the redrawn seat. Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.) currently represents the district and is retiring after this term.

Askar is narrowly favored to win the seat, according to DDHQ , and high-profile figures , including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Johnson, have hit the trail in the Sunshine State.

Both candidates support a congressional stock trading ban. Dandiya, a former school principal, Apple lobbyist and White House Domestic Policy Council fellow, has campaigned on affordability, while Askar, a former Marine and CEO of a construction and real estate company, has underscored his alignment with the president.

This North Carolina seat won comfortably by Republicans two years ago may fall into the hands of Democrats after Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) dropped out of the race.

Edwards called off his reelection bid following a rare censure from his House colleagues over allegations of sexual harassment from female staffers.

Republican state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom took his place on the ballot and has been working to consolidate Republican support in a district with a 5-point GOP advantage , per the Cook Political Report Voter Index. Still, election handicappers have moved the race in Democrats’ direction, and DDHQ has Democrat Jamie Ager narrowly favored to win the seat in western North Carolina.

Ager, a fourth-generation farmer, has said his top priority if elected would be to deliver funds for Hurricane Helene recovery. His Republican opponent has also underscored her support for relief.

Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) is in a tight race to hold his seat against Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D).

The first-term member of Congress won his race by less than 2 points in 2024. DDHQ forecasts that Cognetti is narrowly favored to win.

The Democrat has hit Bresnahan over his stock trading while in Congress, claiming he has made more than 600 trades worth $8 million. Bresnahan, meanwhile, has painted his opponent as a radical.

Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) is campaigning to hold his seat by touting his bipartisanship and ability to break with Trump.

He has touted his opposition to Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Republicans’ efforts to sell public lands.

Trump pulled his endorsement from Hurd after he pushed back on the president’s tariffs this spring, but he soon reversed and endorsed him for reelection after all. Hurd is the favorite heading into Tuesday, per DDHQ.

Combat veteran Dwayne Romero is challenging Hurd in the southwestern Colorado district that hasn’t elected a Democrat in nearly two decades.

Democrat Cait Conley, a combat veteran, is challenging Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) in a must-watch House race.

Lawler is one of two Republicans who won in districts former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024, demonstrating an ability to overcome tough odds in difficult climates. Still, Conely is the narrow favorite in DDHQ’s forecast.

The House Republican is seen as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress and carries large support within the Jewish community, a key constituency in his district. He has campaigned on tax relief, among other issues.

Conley, meanwhile, has focused on lowering the cost of healthcare and utility bills on the trail.

Democrats are eyeing a flip in the Big Sky State, with Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke opting to retire.

Although Republican Aaron Ford is narrowly favored to keep the seat in the GOP’s hands, per DDHQ’s forecast, Democrat Sam Forstag has picked up steam in the lead-up to Election Day.

A smokejumper and union leader, Forstag has zeroed in on working-class messaging throughout his campaign. He is notably backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Flint, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, has Trump’s support. The president campaigned for the House hopeful earlier this month.