Fetterman’s GOP convention appearance raises questions about his political future

Sen. John Fetterman’s (D-Pa.) surprise video appearance at the Republican National Committee’s (RNC) first-ever midterm convention is roiling Democrats in Washington, who are growing exasperated by his frequent Fox News appearances and criticisms of democratic socialists.

Political strategists and analysts say that Fetterman’s low approval ratings among Democratic voters in Pennsylvania would have already made it very difficult for him to win the state’s Democratic primary in 2028.

Now his video appearance at the Republicans’ convention in Texas is “pouring gasoline on the fire,” according to one Democratic strategist.

In fact, his audacious move to participate in the RNC’s convention signals he is unlikely to run again for the Senate as a Democrat.

“I’ve seen elected officials, especially ones here in Pennsylvania of all stripes, blasting Fetterman for this,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist based in Pittsburgh.

“With voters, I think he had already crossed the Rubicon into being completely unelectable in a Democratic primary. I think this just cements it even further. A year ago, I thought he was going to have big problems in a Democratic primary but would be able to survive if there were two or three opponents in a primary,” he said. “Now I see almost no way he ever wins a Democratic primary.”

Fetterman votes with the Democratic Party 90 percent of the time — something that he mentions when asked about whether he would leave the party — but he has also broken with Democrats on high-profile votes.

“Democratic primary voters I think are done with him and are going to walk away from him,” Mikus predicted.

A New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena University poll published last month showed only 23 percent of registered Democrats have a favorable opinion of the maverick senator — compared to 73 percent of registered Republicans.

The survey also showed Fetterman with strong support from independents. Nearly half, 49 percent, of Pennsylvania independents have a favorable opinion of Fetterman while 36 percent have an unfavorable view.

Mikus said Fetterman could run as an independent but warned it’s a tough thing to do in the Keystone State.

“It’s really tough in a state like Pennsylvania to win as an independent. You have so many signatures you have to get to get on a ballot. And quite frankly right now I think he’d pull more votes from a Republican than a Democrat, should he ever run,” he said.

However, Fetterman would also have a difficult time running as a Republican because, as he has noted, he aligns with the Democratic Party on most major issues by being “strongly pro-choice, pro-weed, pro-LGBT, pro-SNAP, pro-labor.”

Fetterman’s willingness to buck the partisan shirts-versus-skins divide in Washington has made him popular with Republicans at home, as well as with independent voters, who are a fast-growing bloc of the electorate in Pennsylvania.

But the decision to make a high-profile cameo appearance at the RNC’s convention — which was designed to boost Republican energy and turnout for the Nov. 3 midterm elections — is being viewed as a major provocation by some Democrats.

Berwood Yost, director of the Floyd Institute’s Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, said Fetterman’s convention appearance puts him in a deeper hole with many Democratic voters.

“It is very hard for me to see how this — his appearance at this event — does anything to help him with that primary election constituency. The polling has been pretty clear, he’s lost support among Democrats, he’s definitely more popular among Republicans than Democrats,” he said. “That dynamic makes it very difficult to get elected in a primary election race.”

“It does the raise the question: What’s the strategy here? And the natural question is: Does he change parties? Is this a first step or another step in that process?” Yost continued.

“He says it’s not. He says he wouldn’t change parties whatever happens in the upcoming midterms and he’s a Democrat,” he said. “What he seems to be saying [is] that he’s tired of partisanship and most people are. … That is a bold risk to take, particularly if you do not intend to switch parties, and particularly if you do intend to run again.”

“The people who are angriest at this are his own co-partisans, particularly the more progressive wing of the party who thought they were getting a progressive warrior when he won his election” in 2022, Yost added.

Pennsylvania Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) called Fetterman’s convention cameo video a “stunt” and “gravely disappointing.”

“I will tell you from the ground from suburban Philadelphia, my constituents are livid,” Dean told reporters at a House Democratic event Thursday. “Those who went out and knocked doors for him — they are absolutely livid.”

Fellow Pennsylvania Rep. Brendan Boyle (D) grumbled over Fetterman’s appearance at the convention.

“A year ago I labeled John Fetterman ‘Trump’s favorite Democrat.’ Tonight, he yet again proves why,” he wrote on social media.

Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.) told CNN’s Jake Tapper that “my constituents and folks all over Pennsylvania are pretty frustrated with John Fetterman.”

Pennsylvania state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D) also took to social media to rip Fetterman’s video appearance.

Even so, Fetterman appears untroubled by the furor of fellow Democrats and even circulated a fundraising text on Thursday that springboarded off his controversial cameo.

The text included a link to an ActBlue fundraising webpage with Wednesday’s video of Fetterman embedded into it. It offered donors the chance to give between $5 and $250, or a custom amount, to help the senator “keep standing his ground, speaking his mind and putting Pennsylvania first.”

Fetterman described himself at the convention Wednesday as a “commonsense Democrat” who is “always going to stand with America” and “always going to reject the extremes in socialism and that anti-American way of life.”

His bold move to become a highlight at the Republican gathering in Dallas shows that he’s comfortable working with Trump and other Republicans.

This has fueled speculation that he may be angling for a post-Senate career as a straight-shooting political commentator on television or a future run for Senate or another office as an independent.

A Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist who requested anonymity said that Keystone State Democrats do not expect Fetterman to run for reelection as a Democrat.

“There’s no sign that he’s going to run for reelection as a Democrat. The odds of him running for reelection as a Democrat are between slim and none — and slim just left the room,” the strategist said.

“There are slightly higher chances that he decides to run either as a Republican or as an independent, but I think the likeliest scenario is just … not running for reelection,” the source continued.

The strategist, however, warned that anyone “running as an independent statewide faces very long odds” because the state doesn’t have much of a tradition of electing third-party candidates.

Fetterman has not yet announced his reelection plans for 2028, the final year of his first term.

Fetterman said in a statement Wednesday that he’s a “lifelong Democrat who votes overwhelmingly” with his party and reminded colleagues that he could wield a lot of power in a 50-50 Senate or a 51-seat Senate Democratic majority if Democrats pick up three or four seats in the midterm election.

“Should the Senate flip in November, I will still be the 51st vote that I ran on,” he said.

The potential that Fetterman could wield an outsized amount of influence in the next Congress is something not lost on other Senate Democrats, who were notably silent Thursday about Fetterman’s cameo at the Republicans’ convention — unlike House Democrats and local elected officials from the Keystone State.

“You’ve seen an outcry from a lot of the Democratic electeds but I think in a lot of ways it’s smart for the Democratic senators not to weigh in,” said Mikus.