GOP fears ‘perfect storm’ could lead to Marshall’s loss in red state Kansas

It’s been nearly a century since Kansas voters sent a Democrat to the Senate.

But Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, is looking to make that jump as Republicans grow more and more unsettled about incumbent GOP Sen. Roger Marshall’s chances in the heartland.

“It’s all or nothing in a sense, because the story is that after 96 years, a Democrat could win a Senate seat in Kansas, but it also could be that there’s a reason for it not happening in 96 years, that Marshall pulls it out simply because it’s so difficult,” said Bob Beatty, professor of political science at Washburn University in Topeka.

Elections analysts have moved the Kansas Senate race to the left in recent weeks as polls indicate that, like elsewhere around the country, President Trump’s low approval rating is dragging down Republican candidates. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia both shifted the race to “Lean Republican” from “Likely Republican” last week.

Kansas is generally a red state, although it has sometimes elected moderate Democratic governors. Trump won Kansas in 2024 by 16 points. But his approval rating in the state now hovers around 40 percent, while Hamilton polls slightly ahead of Marshall at 45 percent to 43 percent, according to a recent Emerson College/Nexstar poll . That mirrors many other red states — like nearby Iowa — where Republican candidates are facing negative public opinion about tariffs, the war in Iran and the resulting high prices.

Beatty said Hamilton is a uniquely strong Democratic contender to capitalize on that national trend. Hamilton has never held political office but has been the pastor of a network of United Methodist churches he founded in the Kansas City metro area for 36 years.

Marshall’s Republican primary opponent Arch Naramore, who won more than 20 percent of the vote, endorsed Hamilton on Thursday.

The Marshall campaign and national Republicans have seized on Hamilton’s faith in their messaging against him — calling him a “megachurch pastor” and pulling quotes from his sermons to depict him as “woke” on gender and sexuality, climate change and Black Lives Matter.

“I just don’t know if it’s a bad thing in Kansas to be a pastor of a megachurch,” said Beatty. “But that’s how they’re going after him right now.”

Vice President Vance, on a campaign stop for Marshall in Olathe earlier this month, condemned Hamilton’s church for hosting a Pride festival and brought up quotes from Hamilton’s sermons seeming to indicate Hamilton has condemned eating meat and “white privilege.” It’s reminiscent of Republicans’ attacks on the Democratic candidate, Texas state Rep. James Talarico, in the Lone Star State’s Senate race.

“In this race, we have got Dr. Roger Marshall, a proud servant of this state, and a proud Christian to boot, versus a guy who would insult your faith and spit on your religion to accrue donations to himself,” Vance said.

Hamilton has also made waves since emerging from a crowded primary field in August by hitting the airwaves with measured oratory and polished digital media from his training as a pastor and evangelist. Although he entered the race late, he raised $1 million within the first week of the campaign in May, and his fundraising has only soared since then.

Both the Marshall and Hamilton campaigns declined to comment on the record about the dynamics of the race.

Marshall, a former obstetrician finishing his first term in the Senate, has generally been a defender of Trump’s agenda. He goes by “Doc” around the Senate and on the campaign trail, and has leaned into his career while championing the Trump administration’s health initiatives — including starting a “Make America Healthy Again” caucus before Trump even took office.

But the Trump platform isn’t as strong as a message on the campaign trail anymore. In recent weeks, Marshall has had to push back on Trump administration moves that don’t go over well in Kansas. When Trump mused about banning sales of Bombardier — a Canadian private jet maker with a large workforce in Kansas — amid his trade war with the U.S.’s northern neighbor, Marshall spoke out.

“I’m going to fight to keep Bombardier’s over 1,200 Kansas jobs. I’ve already taken that concern inside the Oval Office,” Marshall posted on social media.

And last week, after U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents suddenly swept through southern Kansas , ensnaring the agricultural and meatpacking workforce, Marshall also took to social media to urge federal agencies to work more closely with local police.

“When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe,” Marshall wrote.

Meanwhile, Hamilton and national Democrats are looking to hit Marshall over his ties to Trump and the war. They’re also hoping to benefit from a New York Times investigation that alleged Marshall had sued multiple patients for medical debt while working as a doctor. The Hamilton campaign released an ad Friday morning starring one such patient, who said she had been arrested over the charge.

The “perfect storm” of Hamilton’s profile, Trump’s unpopularity and Marshall’s history might be just enough to overcome the high odds for Democrats in Kansas, Beatty said.

“If there’s any kind of national blue wave, whether it’s a small one or a big one, I think then Hamilton has got a really good chance, and it’s just hard to even say that because I’m from Kansas,” Beatty said.

“I think he can win on his own. It would be tough. But you put in a little wave there, or a big wave, it’s very, very possible.”