Democrats edge out Republicans in 7 heated Senate races: NYT polls

Democrats are edging out their Republican counterparts in seven competitive Senate races ahead of Tuesday’s election, though the majority of them show statistical ties between the two parties, according to new polling.

Polling released by The New York Times and Siena University on Sunday show Democrats holding an 11-point lead in the Michigan race, a 7-point lead in Texas, a 6-point lead in Maine, 5-point leads in Kansas and Ohio, a 2-point lead in Alaska and a 1-point lead in Iowa.

Only Senate Democratic candidates Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and James Talarico in Texas polled outside the full margin of error spread, meaning the Democrats were statistically tied in the other five races.

The November election is two days out, and Democrats are vying for a rare opportunity to flip the Senate. Decision Desk HQ forecasts the party has a 62 percent chance of taking the upper chamber this week.

President Trump’s declining approval ratings, high costs of living associated with the Iran war and the tariff war with Canada in addition to concerns over candidate quality have put an increasing number of Senate seats in play for Democrats. The party needs four seats to win back the upper chamber.

One clear trend across the seven polls was that every Democrat led their Republican rival among independent voters, though that lead varied between single and double digits depending on the race. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) held a 9-point lead among the bloc while Maine Senate Democratic candidate Troy Jackson held an 11-point lead.

Talarico, meanwhile, held the largest lead among independents, besting Republican Ken Paxton by 30 points.

Democratic candidates also were able to better shore up their base, including 2024 supporters of former Vice President Harris, compared to Republicans and 2024 Trump voters.

What’s kept the race tighter in Iowa is the fact that Republican Ashley Hinson has been able to narrowly edge out Democrat Josh Turek among voters between the ages of 30 and 64 years old, though Turek holds a 5-point lead among voters aged 65 and older. Ninety-three percent of Democrats support Turek while a similar 90 percent of Republicans say the same about Hinson.

Democrats received an unwelcome November surprise when Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) reversed her endorsement of El-Sayed and instead backed GOP nominee Mike Rogers on Sunday.

She downplayed the move, saying she wasn’t “turning my back on Democrats” while the progressive brushed off the Rogers endorsement, saying he was more concerned about the rest of the state than her and her fiancé, who also endorsed Rogers. While some Democrats don’t think it will change the trajectory of the race before Tuesday, leaders of the party saw it as an unhelpful distraction.

The polling from The New York Times and Siena University was conducted between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1. In Alaska, 610 voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 4.8 points. In Iowa, 705 voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 4.4 points. In Kansas, 736 voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 4.1 points. In Maine, 714 voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 4.3 points. In Michigan, 1,011 voters were surveyed, including on Sunday, with 3.6-point margin of error. In Ohio, 717 voters were surveyed, with a 4.2-point margin of error. In Texas, 1,215 voters were surveyed with a 3.3-point margin of error.