Lingering Democratic divisions could preview 2028 challenges

Democrats are weeks away from the start of the next presidential primary — a contest many in the party have been eagerly anticipating since their devastating loss in the 2024 race. But the divisions that could shape the 2028 race are already on full display, even as Democrats look to make gains in the House and Senate in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

In Michigan and Texas, for example, two contentious Senate primaries have left lingering friction between the party’s nominees and their defeated rivals, months after Democrats urged both sides to put aside their differences in the interest of winning.

The rift in Michigan has been particularly striking: Rep. Haley Stevens’s (D-Mich.) fiancé publicly declared that he would vote for Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat who defeated Stevens in the Senate primary. Stevens’s former campaign chair also said he plans to vote for Rogers, although Stevens herself says she will cast a vote for her former rival, who is more progressive.

In the Lone Star State, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) has endorsed Texas state Rep. James Talarico, who defeated her in the Democratic Senate primary, but she has not campaigned alongside him.

The tensions offer a glimpse of the challenges awaiting a crowded field of candidates who will have to find ways of navigating their party’s ideological divides.

Some Democratic strategists worry the internal fights will spill into the presidential contest in a much more dramatic fashion than in previous presidential races.

“For sure, we’re going to relitigate the 2016 and 2020 primary all over again in 2028,” said Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who ran former President Obama’s Florida operation during his successful presidential bids. “It’s real.”

One Democratic donor added: “Anyone saying we don’t have a huge problem on our hands is in denial.”

Democratic strategist Eddie Vale said the takeaway from the midterms should be: “Everyone chill out and let’s just win, baby.”

But he said he suspects the strain may persist.

“More likely it’s the opening skirmishes of the inter-party fights everyone is gonna try and litigate endlessly until 2028,” Vale said. “But knock on wood, if they both win, it should show the different factions that there is no one magical trick to win everywhere and need the right candidates in the right places and that candidate quality matters a lot, too — not just ideology.”

In Michigan, the divisions have been pronounced.

Nearly three months after the end of a bitter primary, El-Sayed and Stevens have barely spoken since appearing together — and hugging one another — at a unity event.

CNN reported this week that conversations between the two sides “quickly dried up” after the event, and while El-Sayed’s staff picked up some of Stevens’s aides for his campaign, the two principals have not been “directly in touch.”

Jason Turkish, Stevens’s fiancé, explained Wednesday that El-Sayed’s rhetoric on Israel and Gaza led to his decision to support Rogers.

“I’ve just seen an escalation in his rhetoric since the primary, and it makes folks unsafe,” Turkish, who is Jewish and has been a critic of the Israeli government, told The Detroit News. “Every time he talks about genocide, Jews get death threats.”

Stevens, who has been campaigning for Democrat Jocelyn Benson in Michigan’s gubernatorial race, is not expected to join El-Sayed for any events in the lead-up to Election Day.

Still, she said she is supporting her former rival.

“Like a lot of households across America, we’re a house divided ,” she told CNN Wednesday. “I still very much want our Democratic nominee, his name is Abdul, to win this race.”

In the Texas Senate race, while Crockett hasn’t appeared with Talarico at recent campaign stops, she told the Houston Chronicle that she “endorsed him 100 times.”

A string of democratic socialist victories across the country this year has infused the party’s overall dynamic with discord. Those wins have Democrats, particularly moderates, concerned that the infighting will not only continue, it might get worse.

Democratic strategist Basil Smikle said it shows that “ideological and operational differences can sadly still stifle Democrats and snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory by not seeing the big picture.”

In the 2028 race, Smikle said it could spell “disaster if Democrats don’t focus on the voters and institutions and not themselves.”

“Democrats can’t get locked in an internal squabble that overcomes their ability to convince voters they should be back in the White House,” he said.

At the same time, Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said any dissension is “overstated.”

“Not saying there aren’t some hurt feelings about primary losses, but we see some version of this every election, and both Stevens and Crockett have said they’ll back the Democratic ticket,” Setzer said.

She highlighted the similar disharmony when Democrats were worried that supporters of Hillary Clinton would stay home instead of supporting Obama in the general election in 2008.

She noted Republicans have more at stake in the midterms and beyond.

“I’d be far more worried if I were Ken Paxton, trying to win over [Sen.] John Cornyn [(R-Texas)] voters, or even [Sen.] Darline Graham [(R-S.C.)], trying to court [Rep.] Ralph Norman [(R-S.C.)] voters — both who have implied they’d either sit out the race or even back the Democrat,” Setzer said of Cornyn and Norman, who were defeated in GOP primaries.

Democrats on Capitol Hill, she said, are united on economic issues including the cost of living and holding the Trump administration accountable

“Do I see this as a problem in the next Congress? Absolutely not,” Selzer said of party tension. “We have much bigger fish to fry.”

The unnamed Democratic donor said the party’s problems, which have been simmering for months this year, could reach a “boiling point” in the coming months.

“This is going to be the nastiest, most horrific primary we’ve ever seen,” the donor said.

“It’s going to be brutal, and we’re going to have to find a way to not f— this up. And based on our history, I’m not entirely sure we have the ability to not f— this up.”