Kansas, Maine Senate races neck and neck: CNN poll

Democrats have narrow leads in two key Senate contests with just a few days until the election, new polls show.

New surveys conducted by CNN/SSRS released Thursday found Democrats ahead in the Kansas and Maine Senate races, though both leads are in the margin of error. Both parties are spending millions on the two contests in the final days of the campaign.

In Kansas, CNN found Democrat Adam Hamilton leading incumbent GOP Sen. Roger Marshall by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent , among likely voters.

Hamilton has run unusually strong in Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly 100 years. One reason Hamilton may be running ahead of Marshall is that he is viewed much more favorably than his party or his opponent. Voters have a net positive view of Hamilton by a 3-point margin, and a net negative view of Marshall by a 17-point margin.

Cost of living remains a top issue for voters in Kansas, with 43 percent listing it as their No. 1 issue.

Despite President Trump winning Kansas by 16 points in 2024, the Senate contest became competitive late in the cycle. Trump visited the state on Oct. 19 to campaign for Marshall and was due to return this weekend before the White House confirmed Thursday the president canceled Saturday’s rally , set to take place at Kansas’s Salina Regional Airport, without providing additional details about the decision.

Nonpartisan election forecaster Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), The Hill’s polling partner, gives Marshall a 58 percent chance to win reelection, characterizing the race as a “toss-up.”

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson also leads incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins by a narrow 4 points , 49 percent to 45 percent, a slightly wider lead than CNN’s August poll of the race, which found Jackson ahead by 3 points.

Collins is performing unusually strong for a Republican in Maine, which former Vice President Kamala Harris took in 2024 by 7 points. Collins has a record of overperforming in the Pine Tree State, winning reelection in 2020 by 9 points even as former President Biden also won by 9 points.

The CNN poll shows that 74 percent of Collins voters are casting their ballot to support the incumbent senator. Enthusiasm for Jackson as a candidate may be lower, even among his own backers: Just 26 percent of Jackson supporters are voting to support him, while 73 percent say their vote is to oppose Collins.

DDHQ gives Jackson a 57 percent chance to beat Collins, also characterizing the race as a “toss-up.”

At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats had a slim path to a Senate majority, and it appeared nearly impossible for the party to reach 51 seats without defeating Collins in Maine.

But other paths have since opened up for the Democrats as the political environment worsens for the GOP, with polls showing them competitive in red states like Ohio, Texas, Kansas, Alaska and even South Carolina , where a poll released Wednesday showed the race tied.

DDHQ gives Democrats a 60 percent chance to flip the Senate.

The CNN/SSRS polls were conducted from Oct. 20-27 among 783 likely voters in Maine and 838 likely voters in Kansas. The polls have a margin of error of 4.5 points.