Michigan Senate race shifts to ‘lean Democrat’ in final Cook Political Report rating

The nonpartisan political handicapper Cook Political Report has shifted its rating of the 2026 Michigan Senate race to lean Democratic.

In a post Monday on the social platform X , the Cook Political Report said it was “issuing its final Senate ratings of the 2026 midterm cycle” and that “the Michigan Senate race moves from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.”

Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) made a last-minute endorsement of former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers (Mich.) on Sunday in his race against Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who defeated Stevens in the primary. The shake-up rattled Democrats but also pulled in $1.2 million for El-Sayed’s campaign .

Michigan is a key swing state that President Trump won two years ago and in 2016, while former President Biden won it in 2020. However, the electoral environment in this year’s midterms has challenged Republicans, with issues like Trump’s sagging approval rating, the unpopular war in Iran and concerns about the cost of living weighing the GOP down.

That same electoral environment may also have given El-Sayed a boost, with a recent New York Times/Siena University poll finding him ahead of Rogers by 11 points.

Decision Desk HQ rates the Michigan Senate race as likely Democratic , giving El-Sayed a 75 percent probability of earning a spot in the upper chamber.

In a Monday analysis , the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote that the handicapper was “basing our final ratings change on new public and private polling, including a New York Times/Siena poll over the weekend that put the race at an 11-point spread for El-Sayed.”

“Operatives on both sides don’t expect the race to be a double-digit blowout, but the Times survey notably also showed that El-Sayed has shored up his weakness with Black voters, which could have otherwise been his undoing,” she added.