Trump doubles down in Texas

It’s Tuesday. We’re a week out from Election Day.

Programming note : We’re Joshua Feldstein and Abigail Walker, filling in for Cate today. Please send us your tips, comments and story ideas to jfeldstein@thehill.com and awalker@thehill.com .

President Trump is set to make not one, but two stops in Texas on Tuesday, scheduled to appear at 3 p.m. EDT in Corpus Christi and at 7 p.m. in Lubbock.

Trump’s two events in the Lone Star State in one day come exactly a week away from state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s (R) highly contested Senate match against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico .

The president is rallying for Paxton and Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in his reelection campaign against Democrat Gina Hinojosa .

Senate race continues to shift: Talarico or Paxton will succeed Sen. John Cornyn (R), who lost in the state’s GOP primary after Trump backed the state attorney general.

The Hill’s partner Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) currently has the state listed as a “toss up,” with Talarico having 57 percent odds to win compared to Paxton’s 43 percent.

Nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report also has the race listed as a “toss up,” having shifted it from “lean Republican” at the end of August.

Talarico has attempted to debate Paxton , who has continuously ignored the offers, the Democrat told TMZ in an interview.

“Ken Paxton has refused to debate and that’s pretty low-T behavior in my book,” Talarico said last week, referring to Paxton’s “Low-T Talarico” insult on his masculinity in a campaign ad.

Trump has blamed the tightened Senate race on Cornyn and GOP strategist Karl Rove due to their lack of support for the Texas attorney general.

Texas House races tighten up : The Senate race won’t be the only interesting match-up to watch next Tuesday in Texas, as several House races have inched closer in polling numbers.

Texas’s 15th and 34th congressional districts border Corpus Christi, and Trump will look to get Republicans from those districts to the polls to help decide those races.

The15th Congressional District — a tall, skinny strip that goes as far north as the San Antonio metro and as far south as the Mexico border — features a close race between Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) and Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido .

Pulido currently has a 46 percent chance to win, compared to De La Cruz’s 54 percent odds, according to DDHQ, and has pushed the district to be listed as a “toss up.”

The 34th Congressional District “leans Democrat,” according to DDHQ, which lists incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) as leading GOP challenger Eric Flores .

Iowa has become one of the closest watched states in the weeks ahead of midterms for its highly contested races in the upper chamber and for governor.

State Auditor Rob Sand (D) and Republican businessperson Zach Lahn (R) will face off in another debate tonight as the two gubernatorial candidates look to make one final push ahead of Election Day.

The winner of next week’s election will succeed Gov. Kim Reynolds (R).

What went down in Round 1?: The two candidates have consistently traded blows over their family backgrounds, with Sand going after Lahn over his ties to Kansas.

“You literally voted in Kansas in 2018 and in ’20 and in ’22. You registered to vote in Iowa less than two years ago,” Sand said to Lahn. “This is not about why you’re in Kansas. This is about the fact that you’re not in Iowa.”

Lahn has defended his travel between the Sunflower and Hawkeye states, saying that he has a blended family, with children living in both states.

The GOP candidate also accused Sand of promoting gender ideology and transgender issues.

According to The Hill’s Caroline Vakil, Sand has mentioned he doesn’t believe transgender women and girls should be playing in women’s sports leagues. But Sand objected to a 2025 law that removed gender identity from the Iowa Civil Rights Code.

What the numbers show: According to a poll from Emerson College Polling and The Hill, Sand has a narrow lead over Lahn.

Forty-nine percent said they supported Sand , while 45 percent favored Lahn. Six percent said they were undecided.

American farmers, who are frustrated by higher production and diesel costs, might pose an unexpected problem for Republicans on Nov. 3.

As The Hill’s Mallory Wilson writes, “Trump won 69 percent of the rural vote in 2024, but recent polls have shown that the voting group is not happy with how it has fared under Trump since the election.”

Recent polling from KFF/AP found that 6 in 10 rural voters disapprove of the president’s management of the economy and cite cost of living as their top issue heading into the midterms.

Farmers have been hit particularly hard by higher diesel prices amid the ongoing war in Iran, perhaps explaining tighter than expected races in states like Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska.

In an April survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation, 94 percent of farmers reported worsening financial circumstances.

“I think that farmers are pretty ticked off,” former Minnesota Republican Senate Majority Leader Amy Frederiksen said.

Not going blue: “They want to vote for Republicans, but this is their business, these are their families, and it doesn’t appear that anyone’s listening,” she added.

A federal appeals court on Monday blocked the Trump administration from ordering California to refuse to count 20,000 mail-in ballots it says are from likely noncitizen voters.

“The United States’s claimed emergency, at least in part, is a self-constructed one,” the court wrote in its decision.

The Department of Justice was seeking to hurry the ruling before the case reached a trial judge. But judges in a 2-1 vote at a rare Sunday hearing were skeptical.

“I don’t see how we have jurisdiction,” U.S. Circuit Judge Mark Bennett said in response to the request.

U.S. District Judge David Carter, who was appointed by former President Clinton , will review the case on Tuesday afternoon.

Retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) on Monday expressed concern that Trump is “laying the groundwork” for Republicans to “steal” her state’s Senate election.

In a Monday evening post on the social platform X , Smith wrote, “He’s blatantly laying the groundwork to steal an election if his chosen candidate doesn’t win… Minnesota will not take kindly to thinly veiled threats from a guy we’ve rejected three times (soon to be four).”

Her post was in response to a Truth Social post from the president, endorsing GOP candidate Michele Tafoya .

Was that a threat? Trump added that the “Federal Government will be watching closely” and the “only way [Tafoya] can lose is if they cheat by playing games with the Ballots as they come in.”

Recent polling reveals a tight race between Tafoya and her Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan .

Cook Political Report recently moved its projection from “likely” to “lean” Democratic.

A federal judge on Monday blocked the president from cutting down more trees at the East Potomac Park, where Trump plans to build a new golf course.

“Without meaningful notice to Plaintiffs or the Court, on October 10, it bulldozed hundreds of trees on the Course. It did so even though, as two [National Park Service] officials have testified, there was no urgency,” said U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes said.

The order extends a previous decision to a lawsuit filed by the DC Preservation League against the White House.

Are you listening? Reyes scolded the Trump administration earlier this month, claiming its lawyers did not give sufficient notice for tree-cutting.

“I trusted you all not to do precisely what you have done,” Reyes said during an emergency hearing. She added that the administration lost “all of its credibility” regarding this case.

Trump isn’t budging: Despite Monday’s ruling, the president said in a Truth Social post on Monday night that “we are closing the East Potomac Golf Course Site as scheduled.”

He went on to say that Reyes “does not have the Constitutional Right to ‘ask for or receive notices,’ which are time-consuming, unnecessary, expensive, and unconstitutional.”

“We will immediately appeal this decision,” Trump continued. “When completed, it is anticipated that this Course, which will be open to the Public, at a reduced rate for those living in Washington, D.C., will be one of the finest anywhere in the World.”

❌The localized ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine brokered by first lady Melania Trump took effect Tuesday. It was announced last week that the first lady secured a temporary humanitarian agreement in the city of Oleshky, Ukraine, which borders Russia.

🎸Singer Neil Young is suing President Trump for using his song “Rockin’ in the Free World” at his Ohio rally — claiming the president’s fundraising team broke a vow made by the two parties. Young is now filing a $10 million copyright infringement lawsuit.

🩺Late Monday night, Trump announced a $250 million initiative to recruit and retain nursing home nurses. The initiative will be under the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

🍁Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Monday night that trade talks with the U.S. have picked up slightly ahead of midterms. He noted that any progress is “because the U.S. is coming closer to our position.”

🗳️Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is taking part in his first general election since the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023. Polls close at 4 p.m. EDT on Tuesday.

The Associated Press : It could take weeks to know the winner of Israel’s election

The New York Times : U.S. Pensions Are Riding the A.I. Wave. For Better or Worse.

NBC News : 2 men charged with helping Iran over incident at U.S.-run military base in Britain

Reuters : Crypto blitzes midterms with $176 million to support allies as it prepares for post-Trump era

The House and Senate are out. President Trump is in Washington, D.C., and Texas. (All times EDT)

3 p.m. : Trump speaks in Corpus Christi, Texas.

7 p.m. : Trump speaks in Lubbock, Texas.

7 p.m.: Alabama lieutenant gubernatorial debate.

9 p.m.: Connecticut gubernatorial debate.

⚓ Celebrate : Today is U.S. Navy Day. Thank you for your service!

🍻It’s also National American Beer Day. Cheers!

⚾And speaking of beer … the Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of the World Series on Monday night to move within one win of their first championship.

My colleague Elliott Davis said in yesterday’s 12:30 Report that it was National Pumpkin Day. Because you made it this far, here’s a hippo celebrating accordingly .

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