Democrats lead in Texas Senate, gubernatorial race: Poll

A new poll shows Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico and gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa leading their Republican opponents ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in November.

In the Marist Poll , Talarico garnered 50 percent support, while Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) received 44 percent. Four percent of respondents remained undecided, and 2 percent chose another candidate.

For the gubernatorial race, Hinojosa had 49 percent support and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) had 46 percent. Three percent of respondents were undecided and 1 percent chose another candidate.

Talarico and Hinojosa led among independents, at 55 percent and 52 percent, respectively. Even with their leads, when respondents were asked who they thought would win each race, 52 percent said they think Paxton will win the Senate race and 68 percent said they believe Abbott will be reelected.

Despite Democrats usually facing an uphill battle in the Lone Star State, the Cook Political Report has shifted the Senate race to a “ toss-up ” while the gubernatorial race shifted to “ likely Republican ” in August.

The shifts in Democrats’ favor occurred after Hinojosa launched ads attacking Abbott for accepting money from data centers — an issue that has taken center stage this election cycle.

Abbott rescinded his past support of Texas data center projects this election cycle, telling voters he called for blocking new development in rural parts of Texas. He has also asked state regulators to ensure residents are not “burdened” with data center-related infrastructure costs.

If Abbott wins in November, he will become the longest-serving governor in the state’s history and continue a 30-year streak of Republicans holding the office.

Paxton, meanwhile, has divided Texas voters with his past scandals, including previously facing impeachment in the Texas state House on corruption charges before being acquitted in the state Senate.

GOP groups — such as the Senate Leadership Fund’s Texas affiliate tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) — are starting to pour money into the race, which is key to Republican hopes of maintaining Senate control.

This Marist survey of 1,139 registered voters in Texas was conducted Sept. 17 to 20. The margin of error was 4.4 percentage points.