Trump boosts Paxton amid GOP worries over Texas Senate flip

President Trump’s trip to Texas to boost GOP midterm efforts, including state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s (R) Senate campaign, is highlighting the red state’s prominence on the midterm election map as it takes up oxygen in Republicans’ battle to retain their majority.

The president’s visit comes as the prospect of Democrats flipping Texas, a traditional Republican bastion, becomes increasingly probable. Last week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the state’s Senate rating toward Democrats, deeming the race a toss-up.

The growing competitive dynamic in the Lone Star State comes as Senate Republicans find themselves on the defensive in a number of other races, raising concerns about whether GOP spending in Texas is taking the focus away from other must-win contests.

One Republican source told The Hill they expect Paxton to attend a Thursday fundraiser alongside Trump, but that the money from the event will go directly to the Republican National Committee, which is hosting the gathering.

“I’m going to help Ken Paxton. I’m going to spend a lot of time in Texas,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office earlier Thursday.

AdImpact predicted in a June report that a whopping $446 million would be spent on political ads in the state — a stunning increase from its original $124 million prediction.

“A competitive Texas is a very expensive date for us,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor who is supporting Paxton.

“Trump is stepping up to help Paxton, but one fundraiser isn’t going to be enough,” he added.

It’s no surprise that Texas comes with a hefty price tag given its sheer size and its multiple major media markets.

But this year’s Senate race is unique due to the bruising Republican primary between Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). The campaigns spent combined $135 million in advertising during the intraparty clash.

Cornyn’s allies warned against a Paxton primary victory, arguing he was a weaker candidate and that his nomination could lead to diverted resources from Texas in November.

“It’s competitive, and so I think you’ll see a lot more money be raised here and spent here as opposed to being raised and sent to places like Ohio, Michigan, and Maine,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas-based Republican strategist who ran Cornyn’s 2014 reelection campaign.

However, Steinhauser argued the race would still be competitive with Cornyn as the Senate nominee.

“I think that Cornyn probably would be a few points ahead of where Paxton is, but I don’t think he would be that far ahead,” he said, noting the increasingly tight gubernatorial contest playing out in the state.

A University of Texas/Texas Policy Project poll released this week found state Rep. James Talarico (D) leading Paxton 42 percent to 39 percent, with a margin of error of 2.83 percentage points. Another 14 percent of respondents said they had not yet thought about the race enough to have an opinion.

Republicans point out that they have been pleasantly surprised at Paxton’s fundraising thus far.

“Ken Paxton’s second quarter fundraising eased a lot of earlier concerns about his ability to fundraise,” said one national Republican operative, referring to Paxton’s $9 million haul raised from April through June.

“Texas is a wealthy state and its donors are showing up to make sure Ken Paxton keeps Texas stays red without impacting the larger fight for the Senate,” the operative added.

GOP strategists also note the way the party’s campaign bank account is built benefits it in this kind of scenario.

“This is why we built the war chest the way that we did. We were anticipating that Democrats would have an individual candidate fundraising advantage,” a second Republican operative said, referring to fundraising powerhouses on the left, including Talarico, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), and Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed.

Talarico raised $30 million last quarter.

Republicans also say a recent Supreme Court ruling that federal limits on political parties’ coordinated expenditures violate the First Amendment could serve as a boost in Texas. The party holds a cash advantage over Democrats, too.

“The fall of coordinated spending limits means the [National Republican Senatorial Committee] can discuss spending decisions directly with our candidates and their campaigns. The era of raising the curtain on strategy for press and the Democrats we’re looking to defeat is over,” said Joanna Rodriguez, the group’s communications director.

The committee already rolled out its first coordinated expenditures last month, including $2.23 million in total spending across Ohio, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina, Alaska and New Hampshire.

“In a way, it’s hard to say because nobody of meaningful substance has started to spend in Texas on behalf of Paxton really yet,” one Republican strategist said.

“The question is between MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk, if and more importantly how much they spend, because any dollars that they drift into Texas are coming directly from other really critical target states and races,” they continued, referring to the president’s super PAC.

The strategist voiced frustration that Trump did not get involved in the state’s nasty GOP Senate primary sooner.

“They failed to use their political muscle and their leverage to shape the race, so it turned into a bloody, critically expensive primary that hurt a lot of feelings and really harmed the eventual nominee,” they said.

Trump endorsed Paxton in May, just days before the primary runoff.

In a statement to The Hill, Alex Pfieffer, a spokesman for Trump’s super MAGA Inc. emphasized the group will be hosting events across the country to boost Republicans.

“MAGA Inc. will be hosting events throughout the nation to ensure that Republicans retain control of Congress in order to finish cleaning up the mess the Biden-Harris-Pelosi-Schumer Democrats left. We’re not going back to their record inflation, open borders, and surging crime,” Pfieffer said.

The unnamed GOP strategist branded Paxton as “a bad candidate with a very bad narrative and a horrific background,” saying the situation for Republicans “is not good, but it’s not too late either.”

“What you’re going to see is Republicans throw their hands up in the air, and go we’re going to have a really hard time defending this guy, and making him an inspiring candidate,” they said.

“Instead we’re going to turn every dollar we have available to make the other guy just wholly unappealing and make Paxton the best of the worst options,” they continued.