Democrats edge out, neck and neck with Republicans in 5 key Senate races: Polls

Senate Democratic candidates are edging out or polling neck and neck with their GOP counterparts in five competitive Senate races this cycle — the latest indicator that Republicans are facing a tough midterm environment in even more traditionally redder areas, according to new surveys of the races.

Polling released by The New York Times and Siena University on Saturday found Democrats leading by 6 points in the Texas Senate race, 7 points in Alaska, 3 points in Ohio, down 1 point in Iowa and tied in Kansas.

Because the surveys in Ohio, Iowa and Kansas are within the margin of error — 4.5 points in Ohio, 4.6 points in Iowa and 4.6 points in Kansas — those races are essentially tied.

Republicans are looking to stave off losses in the Senate as Democrats look to flip traditional battleground seats in places like Maine and North Carolina, in addition to other more red-leaning states like Alaska, Texas and Iowa.

While forecasters all but expect Democrats to pick up the House, the Senate remains a toss-up as the party needs to win at least four seats to regain control of the upper chamber.

In addition to a midterm environment that’s traditionally unkind to the president’s party in power, GOP candidates are grappling with Trump’s low approval ratings, an unpopular war in Iran, a tariff war with Canada and inflation where cost of living remains a concern.

Trump’s approval ratings are low across the board in all five states — between 38 percent and 41 percent — while grappling with very high disapproval ratings, according to the Times/Siena polling. His disapproval ratings in those five states range between 55 percent and 60 percent.

The state where Trump performs the worst overall is Ohio, where voters gave him a 38 percent approval rating and 60 percent disapproval rating.

The polling sample overall showed a clear enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans — 97 percent of Democrats disapproved of Trump while only 80 percent of the GOP approved of his job. Another warning sign emerges with independents, as only 27 percent approve of his job as president while 71 percent disapprove.

Another worrisome area for Republicans is Trump’s approval ratings with non-college educated white voters and non-college educated non-white voters. Among white, non-college educated voters, 50 percent approve of the president’s job while 47 percent disapprove.

Among non-white, non-college educated voters, only 29 percent approve of Trump while 68 percent disapprove.

Young voters, overall, are sour on the president. Just a fifth of voters aged between 18 and 29 years old — 21 percent — approve of the president while Trump fields a 75 percent disapproval rating from the voting bloc.

The Times/Siena polls were conducted between Sept. 21 and Oct. 1, with the full sample size including 2,946 likely voters. The overall margin of error is 2.1 points.

The Iowa poll was conducted between Sept. 22 and Oct. 1, with 606 voters surveyed; the margin of error is 4.6 points. The Ohio poll was conducted between Sept. 22 and Oct. 1 with 616 voters surveyed; the margin error is 4.5 points. The Texas poll was conducted between Sept. 21 and Sept. 30 with 615 voters surveyed; the margin of error is 4.5 points.

The Kansas poll was conducted between Sept. 22 and Sept. 30 with 605 voters surveyed; the margin of error is 4.6 points. The Alaska poll was conducted between Sept. 24 and Oct. 1 with 504 voters surveyed; the margin of error is 5.1 points.