Johnson signals he’ll remain atop GOP, scrambling leadership landscape

Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) recent hints that he intends to remain GOP leader even if Republicans lose the House have rattled the party's leadership outlook and raised fresh new questions about the GOP's future heading into the next Congress.

Most House Speakers in recent decades have stepped out of Congress after losing the gavel. And Reps. Steve Scalise (R-La.), the majority leader, and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a conservative icon, are both expected to launch bids to lead House Republicans if Democrats flip the chamber, according to GOP lawmakers, aides and strategists.

But Johnson recently muddled the leadership landscape by signaling his intention to keep his spot atop the party even if Republicans are knocked out of power. Then on Monday, President Trump offered a glowing endorsement of Johnson's leadership chops, sparking further speculation that Johnson might, in fact, buck historic trends and try to remain leader even from the minority.

"Mike Johnson is a true friend, fighter, and WINNER," Trump posted on social media, "and he has my Complete and Total endorsement for Re-Election."

"Thank you, President @realDonaldTrump!" Johnson responded. "The best is yet to come as we save America!"

Much about the leadership race is expected to come into sharper focus after next Tuesday's midterm elections. A Johnson spokesperson said the Speaker is "solely focused on protecting the majority," noting that he "will campaign in 21 districts across 13 states between now and Election Day."

But many Republicans are skeptical, predicting Johnson will follow the example of past GOP Speakers — including Newt Gingrich (Ga.), Dennis Hastert (Ill.), Paul Ryan (Wis.) and Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) — who all left Capitol Hill in short order after losing the gavel.

"I highly doubt that the Speaker will go for minority leader at this point," a GOP aide said Wednesday. "I just don't see him having a desire. I don't think he's having a fun time as Speaker. I don't think he'd want to be minority leader."

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) defied modern tradition in 2011, when she clung to the minority leader seat after the party was clobbered in the 2010 midterms. Pelosi would win the gavel back eight years later, but she's been the exception.

GOP strategist Amy Frederiksen said, "When you lose, and you're no longer Speaker …it's hard to go back to minority leader."

"There's certainly a lot less trappings and a lot less power, and also the caucus just tends to kind of want to clean some house. Like members just see it as an opportunity to just switch things up, and so it's not that it hasn't happened, of course. Speaker Pelosi went to be the minority leader, so it isn't unprecedented," Frederiksen said. "It wouldn't be historic in any kind of way, and it's very possible. But it is — I don't think it's as simple as him just deciding. I think that the caucus is going to really want to weigh in on things."

She added that Johnson was a "compromise candidate anyway" for Speaker.

"We went through a couple, two, three, four different potential Speakers, including Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan, when he was finally chosen as Speaker, so I, you know, I just think that there is that," she said. "It was sort of a bargain struck anyway for him to be Speaker."

Some Republicans predicted next year's leadership roster will hinge on how the midterms play out. Although Trump is not on the ballot, the elections are shaping up to be a referendum on the president, whose historic unpopularity has created huge challenges for GOP candidates and made Democrats the favorite to control the House next year.

Still, some Republicans believe that if Democrats win by a wide margin, Johnson will bear much of the blame, lose support within the conference and struggle to secure the votes needed to become minority leader, even if Trump wanted him there.

"I would imagine there to be more of a push for someone else, just given that over, you know, a billion dollars has been spent on the midterms alone," a second GOP staffer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told The Hill earlier this month.

Although both Scalise and Jordan have downplayed their interest in the top spot, many Republicans say they're both angling for the position, setting the stage for a potentially messy internal fight when House lawmakers return to Washington the week after the midterms. (Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer, the Republican whip, says he wants to remain in that seat).

There's plenty of disagreement about who would have the advantage in such a race. Some say that if it's a two-way race between Scalise and Jordan, Scalise would likely be better positioned than Jordan to step into the top spot given his current leadership position.

"I think for Scalise … it'd be an easy transition for him to step into that. But for Jordan, he's really — how do I phrase this? He's been a loyal soldier. He's rallied people well, and he's an effective politician. So I think both would do well in the role, but I think Scalise would have an easier transition just out of pure — his House leadership currently," a third GOP staffer said.

The first Republican staffer, though, predicted Jordan has the edge.

"He's done a lot of work over the past couple years where he's kind of built his own coalition, [and] he does have, like, a cult following around the country when he goes on the campaign trail. So I do think it's his to lose at this point," the first aide said. "When you're in the minority, you need somebody who can be a fighter and willing to go out there and go on TV and bomb some bombs. And I think he's the guy for it."

The offices of Scalise and Jordan did not respond to requests for comment on Wednesday.

Johnson has faced a rocky tenure as Speaker, often marked by internal GOP fighting, a razor-thin margin and repeated challenges in keeping his conference united on government spending, the Iran war and other issues.

Even so, Johnson told CBS News's Robert Costa this month that in the "unlikely scenario" Republicans lose the House, "I would expect my colleagues would ask me to continue leading this conference, even if we have divided government."

"I'm going to continue to serve my highest best use to God and country, and I believe right now, as we're sitting here, that's the Speaker of the House," Johnson said. "And if we lost the majority, I don't think that that position that I have would change. I think I would stay right there."

Some Republicans note that if Johnson were to jump into the minority leader race, he would have a strong case for the position.

The third GOP staffer noted Johnson's "had to deal with a lot of curveballs" and that he's handled them well.

"I think that the party recognizes that and will react accordingly," the staffer said. "That doesn't mean there's not people gunning for the same spot, but I think Johnson has been a good leader, a team player amidst what is, you know — we could say honestly — has been some chaos at times."