Vance road tests 2028 campaign as Trump’s midterm sideshow

Weatherton, TEXAS — Vice President Vance is homing in on his campaign message ahead of Election Day in what many see as a preview of a presidential bid in 2028 that seems all but certain.

As Trump has criss-crossed the country for almost daily midterm rallies in the final month of campaigning, Vance’s schedule has stayed just as busy — though his speeches and crowds are tight by comparison.

“He’s clearly sharpening his campaigning sword and building his IOU pile in preparation for a run,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor.

“Vance can’t draw Trump’s crowds, but he is energetic in his verbal knifing of Democrats,” he added.

That feistiness was on full display at a midterm rally in deep, red Weatherton, Texas on Thursday, where the crowd in a large construction warehouse was at capacity inside, with crowds watching on a jumbotron outside.

“I need you to tell James Talarico that this weird obsession with trans kids is not good for the state of Texas, and I need you to send the message to every far-left activist, to everybody who expects Texas to surrender, that in five days Texas is not surrendering a damn thing,” Vance said to an energized crowd, which at times chanted “JD!”

Vance, who authored “Hillbilly Elegy,” harkened back to his experience growing up in Appalachia, referring to himself as “a product of the American dream as your vice president.”

“Because the American dream was there for me, I want it to be there for you,” Vance told supporters in Texas.

Vance still invites plenty of criticism from his political adversaries over his messaging and delivery, as he tries to navigate the Trump 2.0 conundrum for Republicans: creating some distance from the president’s unpopular policies while building loyalty among his base.

During a Fox News town hall in Texas, the vice president was asked how young people can expect to get married and raise a family if homeownership is financially out of reach.

Before answering the question in full, Vance joked that he had only been asked one question about Ohio Sen. Jon Husted’s (R ) ass, alluding to one of Trump’s recent fixations.

Vance’s critics on the political left were quick to knock Vance’s initial response as cringey and out of touch.

The vice president also drew scorn from Democrats, and veered from some in his own party, when he spoke out in support of Vivek Ramaswamy’s divisive attack ad in the Ohio governor’s race, even as some in the GOP criticized their candidate.

Still, many Republicans are encouraged by his performance down the 2026 homestretch, ahead of what could be a bruising election for the party.

“He’s getting in some really good, quality political reps at that level right now, and taking advantage of the midterm calendar to do it while at the same time obviously going out to try and be helpful to candidates who need it in some really critical statewide races,” said one Republican strategist.

Vance has made stops in Kansas, Montana, North Carolina, and Texas this week alone. He’s given dozens of speeches since campaigning began for primaries, while also touring the country as the head of Trump’s fraud task force.

On Monday, he will return to his home state of Ohio to stump for Republicans in the contentious gubernatorial and Senate races. He’ll also campaign in Rome, N.Y., located in the state’s 21st congressional district. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the open race as “lean Republican.”

“I don’t know if it’s a test as much of an opportunity to show what he can do,” said Chris Johnson, an Ohio Republican strategist.

“I grew up with pretty center-right Ohio Republican politics and listening to JD talk radicalized me, and moved me toward this much more nationalist position,” he said.

While Vance has maintained he is laser-focused on the midterms, he regularly smiles off questions about his political future. And he said Trump would probably back him if he ran, in an interview with Mark Halperin on 2WAY earlier this month.

Although Trump has given Vance the fraud platform, the VP still faces the same hurdles as most VPs.

“When you’re in the role as vice president, you’re often limited to whatever the goals of the principal are,” Johnson said. “You’re also not really given a lot of wiggle room to do your own thing or have your own voice.”

“But he does have this really unique, compelling voice and story, and so when he’s been getting more leeway like he’s been getting recently to be himself, be authentic, that’s where you’re seeing the real success,” he continued.

The speculation around Vance, and other potential 2028 nominees, will hit fever pitch after the midterms.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, another contender for Trump’s crown, said last night that he has “no plans at this time” to run for president. Rubio has mostly steered clear of campaigning, but joined Trump on a trip to Texas earlier this week, speaking for about 11 seconds after Trump called him onto the stage.

Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate, but has described the prospect Vance and Rubio on the same ticket as the “dream team.”

“I think Vance probably gets first crack at it, you know the first opportunity, the first right of refusal,” the unnamed Republican strategist said.

But a bruising midterms could leave Republicans in disarray two years out from their post-Trump future.

“Any thought of ‘heir apparent’ is probably thrown out the window next Wednesday unless we defy gravity and beat the odd,” the strategist said.

“He’s going to have to work for it. He’s going to have to earn it,” the strategist added.

Vance has regularly topped straw polls in gatherings of hardcore Republican supporters. How that translates to primary elections will be tested in about 15 months.

“If the party faithful, starting with Iowa Caucus goers still want to continue the MAGA trend, then he is the likely nominee,” the unnamed strategist said.

Johnson noted that Vance’s age, 42, could work in his advantage, noting his popularity among young conservatives.

“If this leads to a sort of come-to-Jesus moment within the party, I think folks are going to immediately start looking forward, and if you’re looking forward, the immediate guy that you want to start thinking about is the vice president,” Johnson said.