Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts 2 Senate races toward Democrats

Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the Senate races in Minnesota and Louisiana toward Democrats in the final days leading up to the Nov. 3 midterms.

Louisiana’s race, which it previously rated as “safe Republican,” has now moved to “likely Republican,” while Minnesota went from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” the forecaster reported Friday .

In Louisiana, President Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R) is facing off against Democratic candidate Jamie Davis. The Hill’s nonpartisan election forecasting partner, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), leans the race heavily toward Letlow — whom it gives an overwhelming 88 percent chance of winning.

Though Louisiana is reliably right leaning, Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik wrote Letlow “could be in a tighter-than-expected race” with her opponent, citing early voting data by Louisiana-based conservative pollster John Couvillon showing “excellent Black voter turnout.”

In Minnesota’s Senate race, recent polls placed Democrat Peggy Flanagan double digits ahead of her GOP opponent, Michele Tafoya. DDHQ leans heavily in favor of Flanagan, giving the Minnesota lieutenant governor an 85 percent chance of winning.

Kondik noted that, while Flanagan is underperforming “the margin one might otherwise expect a Democrat to get in a light blue state in a blue wave environment,” her chance of claiming Minnesota’s Senate seat is high.

“But is she really going to actually lose to former sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R)? The chances of that seem smaller than what a Leans Democratic rating conveys,” Kondik said.

Crystal Ball’s latest rating changes its Senate composition projections at 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans and five toss-ups. The forecaster will release its final forecast Monday.