5 races that will tell the story of the midterms

A dramatic midterm campaign is in its final days.

There have been internal party tensions , deeply controversial ads , and, famously, two Dan Sullivans in Alaska’s Senate race. At the center of everything , of course, is President Trump.

A House majority is widely assumed to be within Democrats’ grasp. The Hill’s data and polling partner, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), gives the opposition party an 82 percent chance of prevailing, as of Friday. The Senate is a much closer battle, though DDHQ gives Democrats a 62 percent edge there, too.

Beyond the math, some key races will tell a broader story about where politics stands in 2026. Here are five of them.

Texas should be safe Republican territory given that Trump carried the Lone Star State by 13 points over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris two years ago. But it is anything but safe — and Trump will bear some blame if the GOP candidate goes down.

Trump never seemed particularly enamored of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R), who the president felt had been insufficiently supportive. In 2023, as Trump sought to win the GOP nomination for the following year’s election, Cornyn contended “Trump’s time has passed him by.”

Cornyn would later try to stay as close to Trump as possible, but it wasn’t enough. The president endorsed Cornyn’s primary opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, in the final stretch of their contest.

Paxton won the primary by almost 30 points. But polls show him struggling against his Democratic opponent, 37-year-old state Rep. James Talarico. In the DDHQ polling average , Talarico is up by almost 4 points.

A loss in Texas would be a crushing blow for the GOP.

If it happens, Trump’s backing of Paxton — whose history includes settling securities fraud charges, messy divorce proceedings, and an impeachment by the Texas House — will come under a harsher microscope.

Michigan Senate: Israel and Islam become central

Abdul El-Sayed is the standard-bearer for the left of the Democratic Party on Tuesday.

That’s not only because of his advocacy of “Medicare for All” or his other signature goal of reducing the influence of corporate money in politics.

It’s also because his fate is inextricably tied to his views of Israel and to the Michigan electorate’s attitudes toward Islam.

El-Sayed, born in Michigan to Egyptian parents, would be the first Muslim senator in U.S. history. He has also been vigorously critical of Israel’s conduct, especially in Gaza, which he deems a genocide.

The Israel question was central to his primary battle with Rep. Haley Stevens (D).

El-Sayed prevailed despite groups affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee spending about $30 million to back Stevens. Tensions remain high on the question, not least given Stevens’s highly unusual statement Friday, when she said she would appear alongside El-Sayed on Sunday but also demanded he apologize for some of his rhetoric.

El-Sayed and his supporters don’t believe he has any reason to apologize. On Friday, the candidate jabbed back at Stevens, accusing her of being “intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago.”

In the general election, El-Sayed has been on the receiving end of Islamophobic attacks from Trump, who has called him a “jihadist” on several occasions and has also said that he is “on the side of the terrorists.”

El-Sayed has influential allies, too, however. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said in mid-October she had transferred $1 million from her coffers to his.

El-Sayed leads his GOP opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers (Mich.), by almost 5 points in the DDHQ average.

His result on Tuesday, whatever way it goes, will send a loud message to the rest of his party.

Ohio governor: Ad furor overshadows all else

The polls suggest a tight race in Ohio to take over from Gov. Mike DeWine (R), who is term limited.

But that’s not why the contest between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton has seized the public imagination.

Rather, it’s all about an ad. In the final stretch, the Ramaswamy campaign created an ad in which Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur, called her daughter a “liar.”

But that wasn’t even half the story. The highly unusual ad brought the spotlight back to Acton’s traumatic childhood.

In summary, Acton suffered a highly unstable upbringing, and her stepfather was charged with sexually abusing her. The stepfather, Cledith Arthur, pleaded his innocence but skipped the state to avoid trial — and Donna Arthur stayed with him. Cledith Arthur died in 2004.

The ad was massively controversial and was condemned even by some Republicans, including DeWine and his predecessor as governor, John Kasich. Trump, however, defended it, as did Ramaswamy.

The DDHQ polling average showed Acton ahead by less than 3 points as of Friday.

Maine Senate: GOP moderate gets assist from Democratic turmoil

In a year when GOP Senate seats in conservative strongholds like Texas and Kansas look to be in danger, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) should be doomed. Trump lost Maine by 7 points to Harris in 2024.

Collins is down just 3.5 points to Democratic opponent Troy Jackson, a former state senator, in the DDHQ average. She has outperformed the polls before, as when she won a reelection race she was expected to lose six years ago.

If she survives, it will partly be down to her ability to brand herself as willing to buck Trump — even though Democrats have long argued her much-vaunted “independence” is overstated.

Collins has also been given an assist by Democratic turmoil.

Initially, oyster farmer Graham Platner, running as a populist, vanquished the Democratic Party establishment’s choice, Gov. Janet Mills. But Platner faced a blizzard of controversies, including a tattoo associated with the Nazis, before things reached their nadir with an allegation of rape. Platner denied wrongdoing but withdrew from the race in July.

Jackson is generally seen as a solid but uninspiring campaigner.

The question is whether the state’s Democratic lean will carry Jackson over the finish line or whether the wily Collins can eke out a win yet again.

South Carolina Senate: What’s in a name?

Theoretically, an incumbent Republican senator in South Carolina should be safe. The state backed Trump by 18 points in 2024.

But this is a highly unusual race. Sen. Darline Graham (R) has been in office only since July, when she was appointed by the state’s governor to replace her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), after his sudden death.

The new senator has not exactly wowed with her performance. The most startling example came during an August debate when she said she was not “that informed on national security” and that the subject “is not my thing.”

Graham faces an unexpectedly strong challenge from Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who holds centrist positions on topics like immigration. Trump has sometimes attacked her using a slur for trans people, though Andrews is not trans.

The DDHQ polling average has the race essentially tied, with Graham up just one-tenth of a point.

The political complexion of South Carolina makes many observers think Graham might hold on in the end. A GOP loss in the Palmetto State would be seismic.