Sizing up the blue wave: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail. In today’s edition, Scott Bland takes stock of the scope of Democrats’ gains in the House. Plus, Alexandra Marquez examines how the party’s midterm success could affect the next presidential contest. — Adam Wollner Sizing up the blue wave Analysis by Scott Bland Democrats’ performance in Tuesday’s election was obviously big — you can’t reach an estimated 259 House seats without sizable national margins. A historical look shows just how massive the results were, too. Democrats are on track for the second-biggest House popular vote edge in the last 50 years. This will also be the largest midterm margin for one party since 1974, when the country punished the Republican Party in the first election after Richard Nixon resigned following the Watergate scandal. With more votes still left to count, especially in Democratic-leaning California, House Democratic candidates have captured 55.3% of the national vote, compared to 43.3% for Republicans. That’s an 12-point margin — more than Democrats in 2008 (10.5 points) or 2018 (8.6 points) and more than Republicans in their wave years of 1994 (6.8 points), 2010 (6.6 points) and 2014 (5.8 points). Ben Kamisar, Sarah Sternhagen and Stephen Pettigrew zeroed in on the shifts in the House races that were rated as “battleground districts” by NBC News’ Decision Desk before the election.The average “battleground” district’s margin moved almost 17 percentage points toward Democrats when compared to the 2024 presidential margin there, according to a review of the election results in 21 of the 28 battlegrounds where at least 95% of the expected vote is in. The two biggest swings came in South Texas, where a dramatic Democratic improvement among Latino voters helped power massive congressional victories. Newly elected Democrats could become 2028 presidential power brokers By Alexandra Marquez The 2026 midterm elections are not quite over, but the 2028 presidential race may soon get underway. And with sweeping victories for Democrats in races across the country Tuesday night, voters in states with early Democratic presidential primaries also elected a new class of kingmakers. New Democratic governors or senators will soon take over in five of the six states that will lead the party’s presidential primary calendar in two years. Those leaders’ endorsements could be major prizes for candidates and signals for voters, especially in states that elected Democrats statewide for the first time in decades. The prime example is South Carolina, where Annie Andrews became the first Democrat elected to the Senate there since 1998. In August, the Democratic National Committee voted to make South Carolina the first state on its presidential primary calendar in 2028. Historically, when the state was in the third spot on the calendar, Democratic Rep. James Clyburn’s backing was known to sway primaries. He is credited with propelling President Joe Biden’s campaign to victory in 2020. Now, Andrews could join Clyburn as a statewide voice for Democratic voters looking to nominate a future president. “I mentioned it to Annie last night. I said, ‘You know, you’re going to be extremely popular with all the 2028 folks,’” Jamie Harrison, former chair of the Democratic National Committee and the South Carolina Democratic Party, told NBC News on Wednesday. “She just started laughing. But she will be.” Read more → 🗳️Related: Rep. Ro Khanna allies launch a draft campaign for the 2028 presidential race, by Jonathan Allen That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.