30 days and 5 takeaways on the midterms

The month before the midterm elections is when most of the gray hairs emerge from the scalps at the two House congressional campaign committees. Nearly two years of strategizing, recruiting, messaging, mobilizing, analyzing and tabulating come down to a final sprint. It’s also the most perilous time: that last-minute “dark-money dump”; a smear attack; the gaffe by one of your own candidates that lands with all the precision and nuance of a bunker-buster bomb; the plunge or rise of the generic ballot.

I get it. I was the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for two cycles, 2012 and 2014. The 30 days before each election were not only hair-graying, they were hair-raising.

The popular narrative is set: the Democrats are expected to flip the House and have a possible shot in the Senate. But beneath that narrative are fundamental elements that shouldn’t be overlooked. Here are five key takeaways that should guide an informed analysis over the next 30 days.

First, focus on the battlefield, which is dynamic. According to the Cook Political Report (which I find the most credible in capturing the midterm state of play), there are currently 22 pure toss-up seats in the House: six held by Democrats and 16 held by Republicans. You can widen the aperture to another 11 districts that lean Democratic and ten that lean Republican. In other words, the next House majority is likely to turn on the outcome in just 43 districts.

The Senate tells a different story. Cook rates six Republican-held Senate seats as toss-ups (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas) and one Democratic-held seat (Michigan). Add to that a lean-Democratic seat in New Hampshire, and you have the entirety of the Senate battlefield. The Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the majority, so they must overperform on election night.

Second, disregard the polls and study the trends. For the past several weeks, a bleak environment for Republicans has steadily shifted races toward the Democrats. Last week, Cook moved 15 race ratings in the Democrats’ favor . In a domino cascade, four “Solid Republican” districts moved to “Likely Republican”; six “Likely Republican” districts moved to “Lean Republican”; three “Lean Republican” districts moved to “Toss-Up”; and two “Toss-Up” districts moved to “Lean Democratic.”

Third, what’s driving the erosion for Republicans is best explained in two words: Donald Trump. His numbers are, at least at the moment, an anchor weighing down Republicans, particularly in competitive districts. According to a Cook survey, Trump’s job approval in those districts is at the levels of kryptonite: 42 percent approve and 58 percent disapprove.

But here’s a more interesting and initially misleading indicator: the generic ballot favors the Democrats in those districts by only 2 points (49 percent to 47 percent). Seems tight, until you understand that it has swung 7 points toward Democrats since last year and that Trump carried those same districts by an average of 5 points.

Why is this happening? Three groups of voters in competitive districts are shaping the current political environment. First, there’s the Democratic base, which is supercharged. Enthusiasm among Democrats to vote against Trump Republicans is at the level of nuclear energy. Second, there’s the Republican base, which presents its own challenges. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey, 73 percent of Republican voters approve of Trump . Not bad — but down about 13 points since January. I’m not suggesting that these voters will support a Democrat in the midterms, but some may simply stay home.

The third group is of independent and swing voters. They often resist ideological extremes; they punish Republicans and Democrats alike when they believe they’ve gone too far. They support checks and balances. Trump’s approval among them has been averaging in the high 20s to mid-30s. If you can’t energize your base and independent voters are leaning hard against you, it’s hard to find enough persuadable voters to win in these districts.

Fourth, there’s a silver lining for Republicans in the thunderous sky: money. According to The New Republic, the party has spent or booked $454 million on House races , compared Democrats’ $381 million. In the first three weeks of September, Republicans outspent Democrats by more than $100 million in the seven toss-up Senate races. The question is: will money be enough to convince voters that prices are low, the economy is fine and the war in Iran isn’t a problem? Money in a ground game could help Republicans in districts whose outcome may rest on a few thousand votes. But for many voters, the election is baked in already.

Fifth — remember your history. Midterms are always a referendum on the president and his party. In only a handful of midterms — notably 1934, 1998 and 2002 — has a sitting president’s party picked up House seats.

The next 30 days have the potential for all sorts of crises. But history and the current political environment suggest that Democrats are strongly favored to flip the House … and maybe even the Senate.

Steve Israel represented New York in the House of Representatives for eight terms and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015.