The elephant in the room at the RNC: Trump’s money

President Trump’s massive campaign war chest is looming over the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas this week as Republicans grow frustrated with how his political operation has spent in races this cycle.

Trump’s super PAC made its first major investment of the cycle last week, dropping a $10 million ad buy supporting the GOP Senate nominee in Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Republicans are anxious to see where MAGA Inc. spends next, noting the tightening race for the Senate majority. Trump has claimed to have upwards of $1 billion at his discretion.

“With less than two months to the midterms, that causes hand-wringing behind the scenes from some candidates and staff, but Trump is the one who raised it. It’s 100 percent his call and he has shown in the past he knows best how to use it,” said John Ullyot, Trump’s 2016 campaign senior adviser.

Other Republicans say they are more nervous, particularly in Texas.

“It’s going to take more than $10 million to get the job done,” said one Republican strategist, referring to the efforts to elect Paxton and defeat Democratic challenger James Talarico.

“$10 million of MAGA Inc. money versus $10 million of Talarico hard dollar campaign cash isn’t close because a super PAC ad in Texas is probably going to cost you 50 percent more than a campaign ad,” the strategist added.

Some Republicans argue that Texas would be less of a financial burden if incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) were the nominee, and that those resources could go to other toss-up states like Ohio, Maine, Michigan, and Alaska.

Additionally, other Senate races in red states like Kansas and Nebraska have recently become more competitive. The two seats still appear to be in the Republican column, but are emblematic of how difficult the national environment could prove to be for Republicans.

“It’s just money that is not going to be spent to save a seat in Ohio or in Alaska or potentially Kansas and that’s a real problem,” the Republican strategist said.

Still, Republicans hold a clear-cut cash advantage at the party and super PAC levels. The three GOP committees and their affiliated super PACs reported $657 million cash on hand at the end of June, compared to their Democratic counterparts who reported $334 million. The number reported by Republicans did not include the $400 million banked by MAGA Inc.

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that MAGA Inc. is behind a new group known as No Going Back PAC Inc., which has so far reserved $49 million to help boost Republicans in a number of key battleground states.

According to The Times, the reservations are targeting six Senate races and Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-Pa.) district. The group has spent $14.9 million in Michigan, $11.1 million in Ohio, $10.6 million in New Hampshire, $7.7 million in Alaska, $1.9 million in North Carolina, and $1.3 million in Georgia.

The Hill has reached out to MAGA Inc. for comment.

“Now that they’re starting to hand out money, it would seem the indication is they’re going to focus on the Senate as a real firewall,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist.

“It’s where their money could make some arguable difference,” he added.

DDHQ gives Democrats a 68 percent chance of winning the House and a 51 percent chance of flipping the Senate.

Trump told reporters last week that he plans to allocate $400 to $500 billion to help Republicans in the coming weeks.

“We’re going to spend a lot of money because we don’t want to lose our country,” the president said. “I’m going to be making contributions to various campaigns.”

“People that I think are going to win and can win or are close to winning,” he continued. “I’m going to spend whatever amount of money necessary to try and help us.”

Also last week, another group aligned with MAGA Inc., known as Securing American Greatness, rolled out its first general election ads of the cycle as a part of a $995,000 national ad buy. The ads were largely Trump-centric and touted the Republican passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Trump has previewed a campaign swing in the final days before Election Day, noting that he would travel as far as Alaska to campaign for the state’s incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R ).

“I think an interesting thing to watch will be how he spends one, his money, and two, his time. And the second is probably the more important of the two,” said one former White House official.

“Team Trump is telling us to prepare for maybe as many as an event every single day out on the trail. That certainly would help a lot of Republicans, not all, but certainly the majority,” they added.

Stutzman said that the frustrations voiced by some Republicans over MAGA Inc. not spending enough have been overblown, noting it’s too early to make that judgement.

“It needs to start spending, and it appears that it has begun,” he said. “We’ll see how much of the bank continues to be emptied out here over the next couple of weeks, but the more valid criticism is just where the White House has positioned the party on a variety of issues from tariffs to the war.”

Other Republicans worry that a spending advantage may not be enough to avoid a blue wave.

“Politics is like a sporting event,” the Republican strategist said. “At the start of the fourth quarter, it really feels like it’s falling in Democrats’ favor. Now again, that doesn’t mean that it can’t be reversed, that it can’t be stalled.”

“But boy, right now, yes — it is an expansive map for them,” they said.