Republicans see bright spot in New Hampshire with Sununu

A political family dynasty, a strong Republican governor and an influx of GOP cash threatens to put Democrats on defense in New Hampshire as Republicans see a prime pickup opportunity in the marquee Senate contest.

Republicans nabbed a recruitment win with former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) running against Rep. Chris Pappas (D) for retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D) seat, and Cook Political Report shifted the contest in the GOP’s favor last week.

Republicans are also investing heavily in the state, including the MAGA Inc.-aligned No Going Back PAC, which has already reserved over $10 million in the New Hampshire Senate race, according to The New York Times. The GOP says they feel optimistic New Hampshire’s electorate could buck political headwinds facing the party and elect Sununu, whose brother and father both served as governor in the state.

Yet, they concede the Granite State — which went for former Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024 — is not impervious to President Trump’s poor approval ratings and national issues like the high cost of living.

“If we continue to see high costs and, you know, a war that is very unpopular, it’s going to be a tough environment for Republicans,” longtime Republican strategist Jim Merrill said.

“I’d say given all of that, John Sununu is the very best person at this moment to maybe do something that no one expects,” he added.

A win in New Hampshire for Republicans would mark a serious win for the party as it looks to hold control of the Senate and cushion its majority in November.

On the trail, Pappas has leaned into his track record in Congress and his local roots, including working at his family-owned Puritan Backroom restaurant — which famously claims to have invented chicken tenders. The House Democrat, like Sununu, is looking to nationalize the race too.

“John Sununu’s record of supporting Donald Trump’s disastrous agenda that’s driving up costs and hurting Granite Staters stands in stark contrast to Chris Pappas’s record of fighting for New Hampshire,” Pappas campaign manager Rachel Petri said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Sununu argues that Congress has only gotten more dysfunctional since he lost reelection for Senate in 2008, pitching himself as a pragmatist who already knows how the upper chamber runs and can “help calm the waters.”

“I’m excited about the opportunity to draw this contrast of someone like Chris Pappas, who’s been in Washington for eight years and hasn’t delivered for New Hampshire,” Sununu told Fox News Digital in a recent interview , adding that “career politicians don’t get the job done.”

Recent polling has offered mixed signals on the race, but Democrats believe they have a strong candidate in Pappas, who’s served in the House for seven years. Cook Political Report rates the contest a toss up while Decision Desk HQ says the seat is likely to remain in Democrats’ hands.

Yet, Democrats acknowledge the race is tight in the purple state — expressing frustrations that their party isn’t taking the race seriously amid a fundraising deficit against the GOP.

“I think they look at the congressional delegation and they say, ‘Oh, New Hampshire is [an] all-Democrat delegation, so it’s a give-me.’ And then we’re like, ‘Well, no. Look at our legislature and governor, all Republican,’” former state Democratic Party Chair Kathy Sullivan said.

While Pappas’s campaign has outraised Sununu — $15 million to $4.1 million — Republicans have spent more on air.

The GOP has already spent $6.7 million in aired advertising, with more than $25 million in future ad reservations, according to data from ad-tracking firm AdImpact on Thursday. In contrast, Democrats had only spent $4.2 million in aired advertising with nearly $15 million reserved for future buys.

“It’s almost like wishful thinking nationally to want to be able to take New Hampshire off the map because you know it has gone ultimately for Democrats in federal races,” said one longtime New Hampshire Democratic operative.

“But you see how close it’s been, and if you take your foot off the gas pedal, you could easily lose these races.”

Some national Democratic groups have pushed back against this narrative, arguing they’re not taking the race for granted.

“We have significant resources committed here, including multiple television and digital ads running throughout the state currently hammering John Sununu for his extensive career lobbying for the same price-gouging corporations making life so unaffordable for families,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Senate Democratic leadership’s super PAC. The group has reserved more than $10 million in TV spending.

Still, Democrats believe Trump’s endorsement of Sununu will bog the Republican’s candidacy down.

Pappas and the party have suggested Sununu will be a “rubber stamp” on the GOP agenda while ripping him for working in the lobbying industry and pointing to the name “John Sununu” appearing once in files related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. It is not clear in the files if the name is referencing Sununu or his father.

Sununu’s campaign has forcefully denied that the former GOP senator or his father, who is also named John, had any association with Epstein, adding that Sununu “believes Epstein was a despicable human being” and calling attacks over the issue “disgusting” in an email to The Hill.

Meanwhile, Republicans have sought to tie Pappas to the national Democratic Party, arguing he has not done enough for the state’s infrastructure while serving on the Transportation Committee and pointing to his now-husband’s previous lobbying work for Amazon. His partner worked for Amazon as policy counsel from 2015-19 per his LinkedIn .

Ads from one Republican group have zeroed in on a moment from a 2020 House debate between Pappas and Republican Matt Mowers, who argued the congressman did not properly disclose the relationship while serving in Congress.

The Pappas campaign told WMUR in 2020 that the campaign had consulted with the House Ethics Committee and was told he did not need to disclose his partner. The committee declined to comment when contacted by The Hill.

“There wasn’t enough money to really get that message out there six years ago, but there’s more than enough money getting it out there now,” Mowers told The Hill.

Regardless, many Democrats are encouraged by strong primary turnout and remain cautiously optimistic about Pappas’s path to victory in November.

“As long as Chris Pappas has the resources, this seat is very winnable,” longtime Democratic strategist Jim Demers said. “Now, having said that, we are seeing the Republicans spending like crazy on behalf of John Sununu.”

“New Hampshire is a purple state, and historically, the voters here can go either way,” he said.