Cook Political Report founder: House is a ‘done deal’ for Democrats, reclaiming Senate ‘very realistic’

Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook on Sunday said that it has been a “done deal” conclusion that Democrats are likely to retake the House after the November midterm elections, while their chances of claiming the Senate look “very realistic.”

“I would completely agree that the House has been kind of a done deal for a good while,” Cook said in an interview on ABC News’s “This Week” with Martha Raddatz. “But the Senate, a year ago, it wasn’t realistic to think that the Senate might flip, but now it’s very realistic.”

“I mean, the thing is, this is normal. It’s happened to every party in midterm elections where your people get disillusioned and turn out at low levels,” Cook said. “The other side is energized, turning out big numbers and then those fickle independent voters in the middle start breaking against you.”

He added that he expects Democrats to pick up around 20 seats in the House and four or five in the Senate. Cook said he sees this outcome in Senate with races in Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, Iowa, New Hampshire, Minnesota and “maybe” Kansas.

“But in Michigan, it’s where the focus is on President Trump,” Cook said, referring to the Senate race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.). “Boy, it’s really hurting. But when you have a Democrat nominee that’s somewhat polarizing, controversial, like you have in Michigan, that takes the attention away from Trump and goes on the Democrat.”

Cook said the race is not likely to be a “blue wave” but a “red undertow,” saying that a wave would appear more “uniform” and that “pulling down” Republicans has hit “some places more than other places.”

The Hill’s partner Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecasted a 72 percent probability that Democrats retake the House and a 54 percent possibility of winning back the Senate after November.

Polling experts have said that forecasts favoring Democratic victories in both chambers are reflected in President Trump’s tanking approval ratings, Democratic enthusiasm in the primaries and GOP candidates publicly breaking with the president over the Iran war’s effect on soaring prices.

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows the president’s approval rating sunk to an all-time low, at 32 percent. Among Republicans, 72 percent said they approved of his performance, down from 82 percent the week before. GOP approval sat at 91 percent right after his second inauguration.

Republican support for the Iran war has also been on the decline , with some like Rogers calling for the conflict “ to end, and end quickly ,” as gas prices have soared since the conflict began in February.