Cook Political Report shifts 2 Senate races toward Democrats, 1 toward GOP

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, on Tuesday moved Minnesota’s Senate race from likely to lean Democrat, while also moving South Carolina’s Senate seat from likely Republican to lean Republican.

The moves give each party something to be hopeful about in the homestretch to the midterms, with Republicans hoping to flip the open Senate seat in Minnesota being vacated by the retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D), and Democrats suddenly seeing a new opportunity in South Carolina, where Republican Sen. Darline Graham was appointed by South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R) to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

When Cook moves a race so that it is leaning in one party’s direction, it is just one lane away from being a toss-up.

In another sign that Republicans are struggling to keep hold of states that are usually deep red, Cook also moved the Senate race in Mississippi from solid Republican to likely Republican.

Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor at Cook, said in a press release that these races were shifting due to particularly quality candidates on either side.

“In Senate races, the quality of individual candidates can be magnified in ways that defy national trends, especially in midterm years,” Taylor said. “That’s the impetus behind three moves we are making today.”

In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews is running against Graham.

Andrews, a pediatrician, has been campaigning for the seat and raising her profile since May of last year, while Graham has had to rely on her brother’s reputation in Congress while quickly making herself known to voters in the months before the election.

Cook moved that race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” indicating Andrews still faces an uphill climb but may be benefitting both from voters’ dissatisfaction with Republicans nationally, and questions that have arisen about Graham’s strength as a candidate.

In Mississippi, Democrats have grown more bullish. Former President Obama appeared in an ad for Democratic Senate candidate Scott Colom last week, and a national Democratic PAC put $1.2 million into television ads for Colom on Tuesday.

Colom, a district attorney, is hoping to unseat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.). While Mississippi is generally a safe Republican state up and down the ballot, Hyde-Smith is facing headwinds as a Republican and ally of Trump in the Senate amid a national environment unfavorable to the president. Some Democrats — especially Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) — have been saying for months that Mississippi could be competitive and have been urging Democrats to invest there.

Even the few polls done by Democratic pollsters, though, still show Hyde-Smith running ahead of Colom.

In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) has faced attacks from Republicans for not adequately addressing fraud in state social services as part of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) administration. Her Republican opponent, Michele Tafoya, is a longtime television sports reporter whom Flanagan has sought to tie to Trump.

Flanagan is still favored to win , with an 81 percent probability according to Decision Desk HQ.