GOP plan for lame-duck sprint runs into votes, rules and the calendar

Republicans on Capitol Hill are poised to clash in the lame duck over how far to push President Trump’s agenda.

Midterm voters are widely expected to give Democrats control of the House, and maybe the Senate, in the next Congress, which would bring Trump’s legislative agenda to a screeching halt beginning next year.

That scenario is setting off alarm bells among one camp of Republicans pushing to extend the post-election session to maximize the passage of GOP policies while they still have the power to do so. That includes a so-called reconciliation package designed to move partisan priorities without the need for any Democratic support.

“Republicans should unequivocally take immediate steps to pass a third reconciliation bill in the event we lose the House, and stay as long as it takes to get it done,” a House GOP lawmaker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Friday.

That strategy is likely to run into a brick wall, however, if Republicans are clobbered in the elections, and deflated GOP lawmakers lose their appetite to stick around Washington for too long afterwards, especially as the December holidays get closer. Those dynamics might be most pronounced in the House, where Republicans face the longest odds of keeping their majority, and attendance problems could undermine the party’s ability to move legislation.

“I envision a world where you get a lot of pressure from Trump and the White House to get more things across the finish line. … [But] I find it very hard to [see] them pass anything meaningful or significant. I just don’t think you’re going to have the enthusiasm of members to put up the fight and actually do all of that,” said a House GOP aide. “And, of course, if it’s a blowout, they’re not going to want to owe anything to Trump or the White House. They’re probably going to be blaming them. So they’re not going to want to help them out.”

Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.), a GOP centrist who’s retiring at the end of his term and has butted heads with Trump, said that he’s “skeptical that a new reconciliation bill will pass.”

“The president’s decisions to favor Russia after Congress overwhelmingly voted for sanctions have greatly reduced the president’s leverage. Why add funding to an agenda that we disagree with?” Bacon said.

Asked about whether he would stay during recess if Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) decides to push for a third reconciliation bill, Bacon merely said, “When the president is so wrong on Russia then he loses support.”

“Some folks are going to blame Trump on election results, and that will factor in,” he added.

Getting anything of substance done requires cooperation between chambers, and there are some Republicans in the Senate who also want to stay as long as possible in the event of an incoming Democratic majority.

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) seemed confident earlier in October that a party-line reconciliation bill crammed with Republican wishes would get done in the lame duck if Congress was forced to stay in through New Year’s Eve.

“If we lose the House and the Senate, we should be here from Nov. 9 until Dec. 31 with no break at all,” Moreno told reporters at the Capitol on Oct. 15. “Like, we’ll have turkeys here for Thanksgiving because we have to get this done.”

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who lost the South Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary, told The Hill that lawmakers were sent to Washington to “deliver results, not half-baked work.”

“Voters didn’t elect us to collect a paycheck and catch an early flight back home for recess,” Mace said. “If there’s work left to do, nobody should go home until it’s done.”

But Senate leaders are not as confident about that being a reality. Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told The Washington Sun this week that while the election outcome could change senators’ attitudes about voting for reconciliation, he didn’t think any such package could pass at this point.

“Right now, we don’t have the votes to get on a third recon bill [and a] budget resolution. … We might have them after [the midterms],” Thune said. “We don’t have it now, and we don’t know that we have the votes to defend against the poison pill Democrat amendments.”

In order to make a reconciliation bill palatable (and possible) in the Senate, any additional spending in it has to be balanced by “pay-fors,” measures that raise revenue. A Senate Republican aide told The Hill that the existing House framework may not go over well with Senate fiscal hawks, and may not pass muster with Senate reconciliation “Byrd rules.”

“The conference just has so many different factions,” the aide said. “There are members that say we need pay-fors. The math for pay-fors that the House is doing is very creative … Do members believe that that is enough? That’s a question for them. And at this point, I just don’t think the answer is yes.”

There are also other priorities, especially if the Senate majority is changing hands, that will take up floor time before the holidays. Several administration nominees are still outstanding, including more than 30 that have gone through committee but need a floor vote. Those would have to start from zero in a new Congress regardless of who is in the majority, and Democrats are not likely to support Trump administration nominees.

The Senate Judiciary Committee was set to review and vote on a batch of judicial nominees on the last day before recess, but that meeting was canceled after a late-night vote. Those nominations are expected to come up in the lame duck as well.

And then there are other legislative moves: advancing a bipartisan permitting reform package is the first vote up on Nov. 9, when the Senate is scheduled to return. Like anything major in the Senate, that legislation will likely take weeks to get across the finish line.

Then there are regular bipartisan bills that re-up needed programs: the farm bill, an agriculture and food aid package and the National Defense Authorization Act, an annual defense policy bill. Congress also needs to fund the government by mid-December to prevent a shutdown.

That all stacks the odds against a reconciliation bill.

“I think reconciliation is more unlikely than not,” said a different Senate Republican aide.

But everyone admits the election result will change the calculus one way or another, and it’s hard to plan ahead without knowing it.

“We’re all focused on Tuesday,” said the second aide. “Of course, we know what needs to get done in a lame duck, and the Leader is going to assess the best play.”