Iran war shifts into neutral as 6-month mark arrives

Today marks six months since the start of the war with Iran, which President Trump said would last for four to five weeks.

The conflict has settled into a tense but relatively quiet holding pattern, as the Trump administration pivots into an economic pressure campaign weeks ahead of midterm elections, assuring Americans that negotiations are playing out behind the scenes.

With few public details emerging about the “economic D-Day” that Trump pledged to unleash on Iran, the unpopular war has taken a back seat to other news — at least for the moment.

The Trump administration seems to be content with the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz, despite occasional attacks from Iran.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said Thursday an oil tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, but the crew was safe and no environmental damage was reported.

Gas prices, while still high, have largely stabilized at just above an average of $4 a gallon.

Oil is also passing through the strait — even though levels are well below what they were six months ago. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, last week’s ship traffic was up 50 percent from the week before.

The government has said 9 million barrels are passing through the strait each day — still shy of the roughly 15 million barrels that passed through before the war — while some analysts suggest the number is closer to 2 million to 6 million barrels each day, The Associated Press reported.

U.S. Central Command said Thursday that it had cleared all Iranian sea mines from the strait, freeing internationally recognized trade routes.

Trump, meanwhile, has shifted attention to a trade war with Canada, which carries its own political risks for Republicans, particularly in some key battleground states along the border .

After trade negotiations fell apart a week ago, a 50 percent tariff on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports took effect. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by announcing “dollar for dollar” retaliatory tariffs, starting Sept. 8.

Trump on Thursday summoned reporters to the Oval Office for the signing an executive order changing Lake Ontario’s name to “Lake America” — a provocation that garnered blowback from many Democratic officials and Canadian leaders.

When a reporter asked Trump about the latest developments in the economic pressure campaign against Iran, the president said, “There’s not a lot to speak to,” and suggested the U.S. has the situation under control in the Strait of Hormuz.

“The strait is open. We’re taking a lot of boats. Millions and millions of barrels of oil are coming out of the strait every day. Other countries recognize that,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office yesterday, adding, “We’ve totally cleared the strait of mines.”

“But we’re watching,” the president said. “ We see every inch of the strait, and any boat [that] goes in with a mine, we see it, and we take it out.”

Some analysts warn that the situation can change at any moment. The run-up to the midterms provides Iran a unique opportunity to leverage Americans’ reluctance to reengage in open conflict, making the moment especially precarious.

“While the conflict with Iran appears to have cooled somewhat over the past week, with the focus shifting toward economic sanctions, the situation remains highly volatile. Military action by either side could quickly change the trajectory of the conflict ,” GOP strategist Ron Bonjean told Morning Report.

“As long as the war continues to keep gas prices elevated, it remains a political vulnerability for Republicans heading into the elections,” he continued. “ Voters feel high prices at the pump immediately and that keeps the issue front and center.”

Republican strategist Bill O’Reilly similarly said what matters most is gas prices leading up to Election Day.

“The price of gas and oil in late October could be make or break in this election. Actions that ensure predictable oil flow will help Republicans,” O’Reilly said. “Events that continue the disruptions would pose additional challenges to the GOP.”

▪ The Hill : Canada excludes seafood from retaliatory tariffs.

▪ The Guardian : War rapidly draining U.S. Navy budget.

▪ Reuters : Iran war has reached its endgame — a costly stalemate.

The back and forth between Trump and Carney isn’t slowing down. The president announced the renaming of Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” as he’s also threatening 50 percent auto tariffs starting next year. I spoke with Peter Navarro , the senior counselor to the president for trade and manufacturing, and he noted one thing in particular said by the president.

“We gave them a beautiful deal. That deal was well worth signing, and they didn’t do it. The president is disappointed,” Navarro told me . “And that’s the worst word you can hear from President Donald J. Trump.”

There are 127 days left in the year, leaving time for this relationship to potentially patch back together before the president’s deadline. However, as we’ve often seen with tariffs, those deadlines can move at any time.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6 p.m. EDT/5 p.m. CDT on NewsNation.

A federal judge has again blocked the Trump administration from going forward with its new mail-in voting restrictions from the president’s executive order, pausing the move for at least two weeks . That would extend beyond when the first states start sending out mail-in ballots for the midterms.

Three employees of Stars and Stripes sued the Pentagon over their firings, alleging their removals last week violate the department’s own personnel rules and the First Amendment. The lawsuit is the latest development in the ongoing battle over the outlet’s independence from the Defense Department.

A federal judge in California ruled that the Pentagon’s blacklisting of the AI firm Anthropic earlier this year was illegal as it violated the First and Fifth amendments . The company has also sued over the administration’s actions in Washington, D.C.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, waves as he takes the stage during a primary runoff election night event after winning the Republican party’s nomination, May 26, 2026, in Plano, Texas. (Tony Gutierrez, Associated Press)

CHOOSING TEXAS : The president traveled to the Lone Star State on Thursday in an effort to boost the Senate candidacy of state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) as the race becomes one of the most hotly contested in the country.

Democrats have been feeling increasingly hopeful about their chances of flipping Texas blue with state Rep. James Talarico opposing Paxton for Sen. John Cornyn ’s (R) seat. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll released Thursday found Talarico ahead of Paxton by 7 points, while election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race from “lean Republican” to “toss up” last week.

The Hill’s Julia Manchester reports Texas has been taking up more oxygen in the GOP’s push to keep hold of the Senate majority, raising questions as to whether Republican spending in Texas is taking focus away from other critical races.

The ad-tracking firm AdImpact predicted in June that a whopping $446 million would be spent on political ads in the state, a striking increase from its original projection of $124 million.

“A competitive Texas is a very expensive date for us,” said Dan Eberhart , a Republican donor who is supporting Paxton.

The race is also complicated for Republicans by the fierce primary battle between Paxton and Cornyn, as the two campaigns spent a combined $135 million in advertising. Trump endorsed Paxton at the last minute.

Trump appeared at a donor event Thursday night to raise money for the Republican National Committee. His MAGA Inc. super PAC also has hundreds of millions of dollars in the bank, a large chunk of which will likely be spent in Texas.

▪ NBC News : Volatile Texas Senate race may turn on data centers.

▪ The Hill Insider : Democratic hopefuls flock to Michigan and Abdul El-Sayed .

TAKING THE STAGE : Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will step into the spotlight this morning for his first major speech as the head of the country’s central bank.

All eyes in the finance world will be on Warsh at 10 a.m. EDT as he speaks from the Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Warsh has taken a less vocal approach to his position than his predecessor, Jerome Powell , in outlining his overarching view for setting fiscal policy.

Observers will be all ears for any indications of what to expect from Warsh and the Fed in the coming months as inflation continues to be a nagging difficulty. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation remained flat at 3.7 percent last month, well above the agency’s 2 percent target.

At the same time, the bond market has been unsettled with long-term yields jumping to recent highs last week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped in to announce the federal government would double the amount of longer-term government debt it can buy back from investors, a move that seemed to only increase inflation fears .

“Considering how clear Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has been about how much he wants to say little, his upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole conference is getting a lot of attention,” Ian Katz , the managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, wrote in a note Monday.

▪ The Hill Insider : Warsh faces pivotal moment in Jackson Hole.

▪ CNN : Warsh has a plan for the Fed. Bessent is getting in the way.

‘EXTRAORDINARY THREAT’ : Trump has declared a national emergency to block some foreign equipment from being used in the U.S. electric grid.

Trump said in an executive order that foreign supply of electric equipment “constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat” to national security. The order restricts the purchase and installation of foreign-made components for the grid if they pose a risk to grid security or the electricity supply.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright , along with other officials, will be responsible for determining whether a piece of equipment poses an issue. The order doesn’t call out any country by name, but China is a significant manufacturer of grid equipment.

The Trump administration has pushed to outrun China in technological development.

▪ The Hill : Army spending $2 billion to build nuclear microreactors at 5 bases.

▪ The Hill : Canadian power cuts could hike U.S. energy prices.

QUICK RELEASE : A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer has been released from jail in Texas a day after a federal judge declined to force his extradition to Minnesota to face charges related to the shooting of a Venezuelan man in the leg.

Christian Castro was freed early Thursday morning, having been behind bars since he was arrested in late May. He’s facing four counts of second-degree assault with a deadly weapon and one count of falsely reporting a crime tied to an incident that occurred in January during ICE’s Operation Metro Surge in the Twin Cities.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) sued Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) last week over allegations that Abbott has refused to sign the paperwork authorizing Castro’s transfer to face the charges. But U.S. District Judge Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ruled Wednesday that the issue couldn’t be considered yet because Abbott hasn’t taken any action on the warrant.

Abbott has said he’s not obligated to hand Castro over as the Texas secretary of state’s office is reviewing whether Castro meets the definition of a “fugitive” under federal extradition law.

Casto legally could not be held longer than 90 days while awaiting extradition.

▪ CBS News : ICE arrested record number without criminal records this summer.

The president will participate in a Congressional Space Medal of Honor presentation at 11 a.m. He will call the International Space Station at noon and later depart Houston to return to the White House.

Reporters raise their hands to ask a question as White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt speaks with reporters in the James Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House, Jan. 26, 2026, in Washington. (Alex Brandon, Associated Press)

TO THE EXITS : Today is the last day as a member of the administration for White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt , the most public facing in a string of high-profile departures from the administration recently.

Trump announced earlier this month that Leavitt would be leaving the White House after more than a year and a half behind the podium, to allow her to spend more time with her family. Leavitt gave birth to her second child earlier this year and returned to her role briefly before the announcement of her departure.

She confirmed last week that she will work for Trump’s super PAC , MAGA Inc., after she leaves. She didn’t reveal what her title would be.

“You guys will still see me all the time,” she told reporters.

Leavitt is just one of several notable members of the administration who have either publicly announced their plans to leave or been reported to be heading out.

White House counsel David Warrington , who has served in the role since Trump came back into office last January, is set to be replaced Tuesday by White House staff secretary Will Scharf . Trump didn’t reveal why Warrington was leaving his role but said he would join the private sector.

With Scharf set to leave his role as chair of the National Capital Planning Commission, which is overseeing Trump’s ballroom and arch projects, Trump named Mark Paoletta as the commission’s new chair .

Vice President Vance announced a week ago that White House legislative affairs director James Braid is leaving his position ahead of the midterms. The move leaves Trump without a key liaison to Congress in what could be the final months of GOP control of the House and Senate.

White House deputy national security adviser Andy Baker is leaving his post , planning to transition to the private sector to work for a consulting firm chaired by Robert O’Brien , who served as national security adviser during Trump’s first term.

Over in the Justice Department (DOJ), pardon attorney Ed Martin is leaving after a controversial tenure that saw him also at one point lead the department’s Weaponization Working Group, looking into allegations of political prosecutions by the federal government.

Trump said Martin has “been with me from the very beginning” and will be leaving to “fight Legal Battles” for the midterms and 2028 presidential election.

And in the Pentagon, sources have said Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is planning to depart by the end of the year following months of clashes with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth . Driscoll hasn’t commented on the reports.

▪ The Associated Press : ‘I’ll miss you guys,’ Leavitt tells press.

▪ CNN : ‘The View’ invites Leavitt to appear as a guest.

The Ariel Rios Federal Building, which houses the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) is seen, Dec. 8, 2024, in Washington. (Jose Luis Magana, Associated Press file)

RANSOMWARE ATTACK : The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) is investigating a “major” cybersecurity incident that the ransomware group Qilin has claimed responsibility for.

The agency said incident affected a standalone system that operates separately from its enterprise network, which appears unaffected. It said its eForm system and others were also seemingly left alone.

The ATF didn’t accuse any group of being responsible, but the Russia-linked hacker group Qilin claimed responsibility. The group included the ATF on a list with five other victims in the manufacturing and industrial sectors on its dark web site on Wednesday.

“Upon discovery of the incident, ATF immediately terminated connections to the affected environment and initiated incident ‑ response and forensic activities,” the ATF said, adding that it’s working with the DOJ to investigate.

Cybernews reported that if Qilin’s claim is legitimate, the impacts of stealing any amount of data could be “enormous.”

The DOJ announced Wednesday that it seized the hacking platforms QScan and QTRouter, which were operated by a state-run group employed by the Chinese-based firm Nanjing Xinjiuwei Network Technology Co.

The platforms targeted the DOJ, NASA, the Fed, Senate, National Institutes of Health and departments of Energy and Health and Human Services.

▪ Politico : Hundreds of AI agents went rogue in OpenAI’s Hugging Face hack.

▪ The Hill : Nvidia launches corporate PAC.

Can ethics issues tip party control of Congress? Don Wolfensberger writes in The Hill.

1 in 4 NFL players suffer from brain disease. Where is the accountability? Aron Solomon writes in The Hill.

Actor Gregg Donovan holds a poster over Dolly Parton’s star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame on Aug. 25, 2026, in Los Angeles. (Chris Pizzello, Associated Press)

And finally … 👏👏👏 Congrats to this week’s Morning Report quiz winners ! Rest in peace, Dolly Parton . In an related development that the National Hurricane Center said is “ purely coincidental ,” Tropical Storm Dolly has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and appears on track to move into the Caribbean.

Here’s who went 4/4: Stan Wasser, Rick Schmidtke, Richard Baznik, Carmine Petracca, Chuck Schoenenberger, Laurie Boulden, Jane Heaton, Anthony Beebe, Roger Langendoerfer, Tom Chabot, Tamar Magarik Haro, Jess Elger, Susan Cook, Ned Sauthoff, Jeff Gelski, Michael Salanik, Keith Rutman, Peter Sprofera, Harry Strulovici, Jenessa Wagner, Karen Mitchoff, Jay Rockey, Julie Barnes, Linda L. Field, Jim Hood, Richard Kyle, Steve Comer, Robert Bradley, Bobi Earp, Michael Palermo, Cindy Moore, Sari Wisch, Steve James, Savannah Petracca, Angelika Husmann, Naomi Petracca and Elizabeth Prystas .

Parton often said “ Coat of Many Colors ” was her favorite of her songs , as it describes her own story of growing up poor and wearing a coat made of different-colored rags that her mother sewed for her.

Parton said she used her acrylic nails to come up with the beat for “9 to 5,” as it sounded similar to the typewriter in an office.

Parton initially turned down induction into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame , as she reasoned that she wasn’t a rock-and-roller. She later accepted induction in the 2022 class.

Elvis Presley had been set to record a version of “I Will Always Love You” and tentatively had an agreement with Parton, but that deal ultimately fell apart over the demands of Presley’s manager, Colonel Tom Parker, who insisted on part of the song’s publishing rights.