How Republicans lost the Hispanic vote

Last week, America sent more than a message to Capitol Hill — it delivered a resounding verdict.

Democrats will control both chambers of the 120th Congress, with a House majority exceeding 250 seats . A blue tidal wave swept through districts President Trump carried just two years ago. Republicans can blame turnout, candidates or maps, but for sensible Americans, the truth is much simpler: They lost on affordability, they lost on the war in Iran, and they lost on immigration.

The numbers are screaming at us. According to one exit poll, 63 percent of voters called military action against Iran the wrong decision, and nearly eight in 10 said inflation is causing hardship in their homes. Then there is the data that should keep every conservative strategist awake at night. In 2024, 46 percent of Hispanic voters supported Trump; on Election Night, Republican House candidates won just 35 percent . That is an 11-point collapse in 24 months.

Look at Texas, where James Talarico became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat there since 1988 , defeating Ken Paxton decisively. In the Rio Grande Valley, where maps were redrawn to hand Republicans new seats, Hispanic families swung hard back toward Democrats . Even in Florida, the governor’s race came down to just a 1.3-point margin .

Here is what the consultants will not tell you: This was not a rejection of border security. The vast majority of commonsense Americans want every gang member, trafficker and violent criminal deported as quickly as possible. I want that. Our churches want that. What went wrong was something else entirely.

The grievous error was targeting the 65-year-old grandmother who has lived here for 20 years, who makes tortillas or cleans homes. She worships in our evangelical churches and our Catholic parishes. Her children were born and raised here. She has never had a parking ticket, does not depend on government entitlements, and works 40 to 60 hours a week. The Migration Policy Institute found that 61 percent of deportations of immigrants with more than 10 years in this country involved people with no criminal record. Raiding Home Depot parking lots and restaurant kitchens is not who we are as Americans. It’s certainly not the heart and soul of the conservative movement.

This is the fruit of the enforcement machine Kristi Noem built at the Department of Homeland Security, and of political myopia among those who neglected the Hispanic electorate. But let’s be clear-eyed about what happened: There is no attainable conservative movement without the Hispanic electorate.

Hispanic Americans are the firewall. We are the firewall against socialism and communism, against the mutilation of children, against men in women’s sports, against antisemitism, against lawlessness and anarchy.

But you cannot get into our hearts while you are invading our kitchens and harming our churches.

All that being said, there is reason for hope. Within hours of the results, the president said on Fox News that he can work with Democrats, including on immigration . That is wisdom. It is also an acknowledgment that the problem was never the conservative vision — it was the execution.

If Republicans and independent-minded Americans are truly reading the tea leaves this week, they will discover that building a lasting coalition requires elevating leaders who are fluent in both the language of our abuelas and the language of our Constitution. And a serious prescription for 2028 is an immigration philosophy that secures the border without breaking families.

The firewall stands ready. The question is whether the party is ready to honor it.

Rev. Samuel Rodriguez is lead pastor of New Season Church in Sacramento, Calif., and president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference. He has advised three U.S. presidents and is the first Latino to participate in multiple presidential inauguration ceremonies.