New Texas Senate poll shows challenge for GOP in final days

A new poll of Texas' U.S. Senate race is the latest to show Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton separated by just a few points, with early voting ending Friday

A new poll from Texas Southern University released Oct. 29 found that Talarico leads Paxton by 2 percentage points, 49% to 47%, with 3% supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 1% undecided.

The poll was conducted before President Donald Trump 's two stops in Texas earlier in the week, where he campaigned for Paxton in Corpus Christi and Lubbock — where Talarico also held a campaign rally a few miles away.

Here's what the latest poll shows and how it compares with other recent polls since early voting began.

James Talarico, Ken Paxton statistically tied in Texas Senate race

The Texas Southern University poll surveyed 2,000 Texans likely to vote in the November 2026 general election between Oct. 21-25.

With a margin of error of 2.19 percentage points, Talarico's two-point edge is a statistical tie.

The poll also found that 48% of likely voters view Talarico favorably and 51% unfavorably, while 42% view Paxton favorably and 57% unfavorably.

By party, 99% of Democrats intend to vote for Talarico, 1% for Paxton and none for Brown or undecided.

For Republicans, 88% said they intend to vote for Paxton, with 8% intending to vote for Talarico, 3% for Brown and 1% still undecided.

Talarico led among independents, with 54% saying they would vote for Talarico, 38% for Paxton, 6% for Brown and 2% undecided.

Latest Talarico-Paxton Texas Senate race polls

Over the past few months, Democrat Talarico has led or tied Paxton either within the margin of error — making it a statistical tie — or just outside it.

A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll, released Oct. 22, found that 48% of likely voters support Talarico and 46% support Paxton — a 2-point lead within the poll's 3.1 percentage points margin of error.

The Cook Political Report also published a battleground poll, released Oct. 21, on the Texas Senate race showing Talarico leading Republican Paxton 49% to 44% — a 5-point lead outside the poll's 3.2 percentage points margin of error.

Here's how they compare with other recent October polls:

U of H Hobby poll (Oct. 18) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%.

Marist poll (Oct. 14) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.

UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%.

ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.

UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%.

YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.

The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com .