Trump takes red state midterm blitz to Nebraska as GOP frets over Senate race

President Trump is headed to deep-red Nebraska as Republicans ready for a close Senate race against independent Dan Osborn, who’s backed by Democrats aiming to keep the seat out of GOP hands.

Incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), who won the 2024 special election to fill out the remainder of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R-Neb.) term, is still the favorite to win a full six years representing the Cornhusker State, where Republicans have dominated the congressional delegation and governor’s mansion for decades.

But Nebraska Democrats are backing Osborn, an independent who came within 7 percentage points of Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in 2024’s race and has promised not to caucus with either party — even as the Democrats’ 2026 nominee dropped out to clear a path for him — and tight recent polling signals Republicans may be on defense in the red stronghold.

Against that backdrop, Trump is rallying for Ricketts in Grand Island, Neb., on Monday, the latest stop in a swing through red states amid an increasingly bleak midterm outlook for the GOP.

“They didn’t choose Omaha; they chose Grand Island. And that means that they are worried about this Senate race,” Nebraska Republican consultant Ryan Horn said of the president’s upcoming visit.

Though the Democratic brand is “unacceptable” to rural voters in the state, Horn argued, the close races for Senate and governor are “a testament to how hard some of the Trump policies are hitting rural America.”

Independent polling has been sparse in Nebraska’s Senate race, but a Wedgewood Polls survey last month put Ricketts up by a slim 4 points, within the margin of error, with 52 percent to Osborn’s 48 percent. A SurveyUSA poll last month put Osborn ahead by 4 points, with 46 percent to Ricketts’s 42 percent and 7 percent undecided, and several Osborn internal polls also showed a dead-heat race.

Cook Political Report shifted the race out of solid red territory to a “likely Republican” rating this spring, as Democrat Cindy Burbank declined her party’s nomination and put her weight behind Osborn . Decision Desk HQ now gives Ricketts an 81 percent chance of beating the independent, down from 87 percent in August.

Nick Puglia, press secretary for Republicans’ Senate campaign arm, shrugged off the latest numbers, arguing that Osborn “will be rejected once again.” But others think the numbers prove Democrats have a chance.

“Trump’s coming to Nebraska — it tells you that the polls that Osborn’s campaign’s been releasing all year must have some accuracy to them,” said Vince Powers, a Lincoln-based attorney and Nebraska Democratic party chair.

“I mean, coming to Grand Island, Neb., would have been like Joe Biden or Barack Obama going to San Francisco,” he added, noting that the last time a Republican president campaigned in the city was when former President George W. Bush rallied to support Ricketts for Senate and Adrian Smith for the House. Ricketts lost his bid.

A spokesperson for Osborn argued that Ricketts is “calling in all of the party boss support he can get” in light of the tight polls.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was in the state in August , and Vice President Vance stopped by in September . And outside spending has poured into Nebraska alongside other states once seen as safe for the GOP.

The Nebraska Senate race is “way more competitive than it should be,” said Kevin Smith, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.

Smith described Ricketts, who won his 2024 special election by nearly 30 points , as a “pretty rock solid conservative” boasting the incumbency advantage in a state where Democrats make up just a quarter of registered voters.

“In a ruby red state like Nebraska, this should be a layup,” Smith said. “The fact that Republicans are paying attention to these places that Trump took by pretty significant margins, to me is an indication that Republicans think it’s a competitive race.”

With one month until Election Day, Trump and Vance are both blitzing through red states , raising eyebrows amid a tough midterm landscape for Republicans.

Trump stopped this past week in Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama, while his second-in-command visited Florida and on Monday heads to Alaska. The Lone Star State and the Last Frontier are host to two of the most competitive Senate races in the country this cycle.

Asked this week whether the red-state tour signals midterm trouble for the GOP, Trump did not answer directly.

“Whoever wins the presidency, Republican or Democrat, automatically does poorly in the midterms … but we shouldn’t,” Trump said, suggesting his second term is “the most consequential” presidency and touting that “we have the best military” and “the best economy.”

“The only thing we don’t have is good public relations. We don’t seem to be able to get the word across,” the president said.

Trump, who won Nebraska by more than 20 points in the 2024 presidential election, could be a motivator for voters in the state as Republicans face typical midterm headwinds.

But Trump’s approval is down nationally , driven by voter frustration over the economy, the war in Iran and his immigration crackdown. As a few Republicans in tough races start to distance themselves from the White House , some question just how helpful Trump’s red-state visits will be.

“Trump coming could certainly help motivate the base, the MAGA section of the Republican Party. It could get them fired up and help them get out to vote,” Smith said.

He argued, however, that there’s a “trade-off” to the president’s Nebraska trip too.

“It could whip up enthusiasm to vote not just amongst Democrats but amongst independents, and that might not help the Ricketts campaign,” Smith continued.

Hal Daub, a former Republican congressman for Nebraska’s 2nd District, shrugged off the concern.

“There’ll be the carpers that argue that Trump’s poll numbers are not positive, and so therefore the question will get asked: ‘Why would you bring in somebody that has those polls?’ Well, he’s not on the ballot, like he keeps saying,” Daub said.

“I think that the president stopping in Grand Island, central to Western Nebraska, message is: ‘Hey, Republicans, this is a tough race. It could be a close race. Get out of bed and go vote.’”

Powers, though, contended that Trump’s visit is coming at the “absolute worst” time for Ricketts amid a controversy stoked by a new ad from a super PAC supporting Osborn.

The 60-second spot lambasts Ricketts for casting the deciding vote to pardon a man convicted of sexual assault without contacting the victim, who narrates: “I have no idea why Sen. Ricketts chose my rapist over me.”

Asked this past week about the ad, Ricketts said it was a “terrible crime” and that he “made the best decision” he “could at the time with the information” he had, as reported by Nebraska Public Media .

But Osborn is facing his own challenges. He apologized to residents of Red Cloud, Neb., this past week after the Omaha World-Herald last month leaked audio of the independent critiquing Trump supporters for their reasoning behind supporting the president.

And Osborn — who promised not to caucus with either party if elected in November and focused on a nonpartisan, working-class pitch — also faces Ricketts’s continued efforts to brand the independent as “Democrat Dan .”

“The Democratic Party brand is pretty toxic in Nebraska outside of Omaha and Lincoln, and the Republican Party brand is looking pretty battered right now,” Smith said. “Maybe the stars align to where Osborn can really make this truly a toss-up race.”